Vision Pro’s first-weekend pre-order review: expectations in line, but concerns raised

Conclusion:
The immediate sold-out when pre-orders opened confirms earlier predictions. However, the inability to sustain a steady increase in pre-order demand is a major concern and also confirms earlier concerns about whether the intensity of demand can be sustained. Click here and here for details of my previous predictions.

Analysis：
1. Based on pre-order inventory and shipping time, I estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units during the first pre-order weekend.
2. As predicted, the Vision Pro sold out immediately after the pre-order opened, with shipping times for all models extending to 5–7 weeks within hours.
3. The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened. It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders.
4. Popular iPhone models also sell out immediately upon pre-order, and shipping times typically increase to several weeks within hours. However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open, indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out.
5. Media reports have suggested that supply chain partners such as assembler Luxshare will work overtime during the Lunar New Year to meet demand, meaning better than expected demand for Vision Pro. However, the reality is that because there is still room for improvement in Vision Pro production efficiency, Luxshare has been working full-time overtime since the start of mass production to offset the impact of production efficiency on shipments.
6. Achieving a shipment volume of 500,000 units for Vision Pro this year should not be challenging. However, because demand tapers off quickly after the initial sold-out, it’s critical to closely monitor demand in other markets and application updates to assess changes in demand.
7. Apple has a massive user base of over 1.2 billion active users. As long as about 0.007% of users are willing to buy after pre-ordering, Vision Pro can sell out after opening for pre-order. So, right now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product.