US market outlook: It has risen 298% in the past year, and the rate of increase in US electric power stocks that have received the most attention starts at 4 dollars higher than NVIDIA

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Has the depreciation of the dollar lost its seasonality in May?
・The dollar's seasonal performance is not remarkable:Historically, May is usually regarded as a month where the dollar shows good performance, but since the beginning of May this year, the dollar index has already fallen by about 2%, and there has been no significant seasonal rise.
・Abnormal stock market movements:There was no “sell in May” phenomenon traditionally seen in May for US stocks, and the volatility of the stock market declined, and the VIX index returned to a low level, reversing the sharp rise in April.
・Impact of the Federal Reserve's dovish stance on corporate profits:Moderate corporate earnings and the Fed's dovish statements are thought to be one reason for the recent decline in stock market volatility. UBS pointed out that the trading patterns of market participants are changing, and the strategy of “sell in May” is gradually being abandoned.

A disruptive AI revolution that can't destroy tech giants
・The unwavering position of a major high-tech company: While American inflation is easing, the destructive AI revolution has boosted US stocks to record highs, but NVIDIA, $Meta Platforms(META.US)$、 $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$High-tech giants such as these still maintain an unwavering position. The rate of increase in the stock prices of major high-tech companies is higher than the S&P 500, indicating that the market is looking positively at major technology stocks.
・Challenges facing start-ups:Despite the emergence of many new AI application startups, these companies are facing major challenges in competing with tech giants like Alphabet and OpenAI supported by Microsoft. Meanwhile, companies listed on CNBC's “Tech Disruptors List” focus on selling military aircraft, payment software, and data tags rather than directly challenging the control of high-tech giants such as social media, cloud computing, office software, and chips.

It has risen 298% in the past year, and the rate of increase in US electric power stocks that have received the most attention surpasses NVIDIA
・The boom in AI power stocks is still continuing:It is one of the largest power generation and retail energy supply companies in the United States $Vistra Energy(VST.US)$The company's stock price rose again after financial results were announced last week, and as of the 15th, the cumulative rate of increase for 1 year was 298%, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$It was above 223%. Also, the largest nuclear power company in the United States $Constellation Energy(CEG.US)$and the largest solar power company $NRG Energy(NRG.US)$recorded cumulative increases of 152 percent and 182 percent, respectively, over the course of one year.
・Are AI power stocks overheating:Analysts at the investment bank Evercore extracted S&P 500 stocks that reach the average annual growth rate of EPS of 10%, and revealed that the 2026 stock price-earnings ratio is 20 times higher. According to Wall Street estimates, Vistra and Constellation have average annual EPS growth rates of 33% and 21% for 2023-2026, respectively, and the average annual EPS growth rate for NRG in 2024-2026 is 7.6%, and the current 2026 PER of the 3 brands is 17 times, 26 times, and 12 times, respectively, and overall they are still at a relatively moderate level.

The rise in US stocks is unstoppable! What is the driving force behind the market where the three major indices hit new highs in history?
In the US market, in response to the fact that growth in the US consumer price index (CPI) fell below market expectations, the sense of caution about postponing interest rate cuts receded and continued to grow, and all 3 major indices hit an all-time high on the 15th. Since entering 2024, it is the 23rd time that the S&P 500 has hit an all-time high in closing price, the Dow is 18th, and the NASDAQ Composite Index is the 8th time.

The dollar and yen recovered to the 155 yen level, dollar purchases strengthened, the US import price index was above expectations, and the number of new unemployment insurance claims decreased for the past week
The dollar and yen recovered to the 155 yen level, dollar purchases strengthened, the US import price index was above expectations, and the number of new unemployment insurance claims declined for last week. The number of new US unemployment insurance claims last week decreased by 10,000 compared to the previous week to 222,000. The market forecast was 220,000. 232,000 cases last week.