UPDATE August 11
I hope everyone is trading well. The market is wild, huh.
PPI comes out an hour before open.
The market has done NOTHING spectacular. I said expect a 5- 10% pullback, meandering down, before resuming up.
Here is my post from July 20:
Understand that. We are not on the Titanic. We are still in a bull market. It's probably not the kind of market someone wants to trade in unless you find and play the individual stocks.
I think we bounce around up at these prices. Before dropping. I think we drop anywhere from 5-10%. This is meant to make traders think the end is near 🫨 so they buy crazy puts and dump positions. That is why I expect the market to swing. To make the bulls believe we are going back up and the bears to think we are going to new lows. I think we consolidate (distribute, build liquidity, whatever you like to call it). I think we have another push up, but after a pullback.
Up and Down but steadily dropping with plunges at Moving Average rejections. This is a failure and not a time to be buying. It is a good time to write (sell) calls and, if you are so inclined, to buy downside protection. I think this may last a few weeks or longer. If the 5 day MA starts to cross the 20 day MA that's a sign that the asset is in a downtrend until the 5 day crosses back above the 20 MA. (traders use different numbers for the 20, if you use any Moving Average from 18-22 the rule still applies)
The bears are correct and we drop farther if the 20 MA crosses the 50 MA on the daily chart. Until then, RELAX 😌 Be wise. Collect premium. Find profits and take them.
This is where we currently sit:
iam cautiously bullish. So far, the market has done nothing except exactly what I thought. And here's a savory bit. What is 5% from 387.98? Yup, 368.58. Look at where we closed.
🎼🎼🎼🎼
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Oh, what a strange magic
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Got a strange magic
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Everything I posted on July 20 still holds true. Until the 20 MA crosses below the 50 MA, relax 😌.
I'm long. I was going to nibble but went whole hog after yesterday's drop ![]()
. I look for a market rally going into the FED meeting at Jackson Hole on August 24.
Here is my thinking;
If we are BEARISH then I expect a bounce up to retrace the drop (a wave 2 up after a wave 1 down). Below are the retracement levels (assuming we have bottomed, by my count we could have, but counts change with price), with the minor count (yellow) of the larger count (blue).
If we remain BULLISH then I expect a challenge of 388 with a new high of 393. It should look something like below
If the markets are truly "crash" bearish and we are going to retest the October lows, then there is still plenty of time to short the rally. look. But also notice how we have come back to retest a critical point, and right on a blue uptrend line while approaching oversold with the PDI turning up.
OK, so there you have it. Remain vigilant. Here are some stocks iam in. OH, and one other thing.
THE COMMODITIES SUPER CYCLE IS HAPPENING!!! everyone wants a Gamestop squeeze, but that won't happen. What will happen is oil and commodities can 10X over the next few years.
Alright now some of the stocks iam in. I like doing these posts and need to do it more often. It allows me to look at trends and see things from a new (chart) perspective (moomoo). I focus so much time on day/future trading QQQ I forget about my longs.
could trade sideways until reaching the treandline or take off.
is in a clear downtrend, I don't care. I'm holding for a reversal because 300 is child's play to where this is going.
looking for a bounce, possible change of trend.
A miner, I'm not completely confident in the miners. Metals are priced high, and energy has been low. The miners are near 52 week lows, and have been looking to breakout for some time, I'm sure I'm early, but I can play for a bounce. The miners didn't run with the metals, perhaps they run while the metals are dropping.
NatGas plays
URANIUM, I like uranium a lot. there is a lot going on in the world from African revolts to Biden shutting uranium Mines. Uranium is under pressure and the best future energy. these stocks are ready to blow.
Again, QQQ could drop to 363 before a reversal possibly lower, but I lean bullish, I would like to see a structure build to reach 388 and then on towards 393.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise
and as always
Good Luck ![]()
PPI released in an hour, watch support of 363, and resistance of 379.
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rawrrrbucks : Thanks for your analysis, @iamiam
I always enjoy reading your posts
LEng LEng : Thanks for sharing
Thelord : Will Biden restricting capital flow to China keep baba range bound for very long?
iamiamOP Thelord: I don't think so. if anything, it would be a housing crash in China. the chart for Baba is very bullish. it has been for some time, its just waiting for the 50MA to cross the 200MA on the daily.
Thelord iamiamOP: I think there is already a golden cross on the daily
iamiamOP Thelord: I don't have one yet, but settings are different
Susu127 : Thanks for your post！It’s helpful