UPDATE Aug 15
I had an update all composed as I sat on my patio eating a tub of ice cream (I picked the right day to go to the ice cream shop 🍧). I waited too long to write it down, and I have since forgotten it 🤦♂️. Let's see if I can get something that is decent before the market opens.
🚨 WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! 🚨
The signals have become clearer. We should get one more squeeze up and then a failure. An epic failure. There are many ways this can go. Let me give you my view.
When the markets topped in 2021/2022, the Nasdaq topped first in November. Then, the S&P and DJI topped later in January. I expect something similar. I believe the Nasdaq has topped. I'm no longer looking for new highs. I'm looking for a rally in Nasdaq up to as high as 384. More likely, we will see 379 as a top, but I'm cautious at 377.
THIS IS A SHORT THE RALLY!!!
I believe that the S&P and Dow will still rise. This is because of Pharma, Energy, Utilities and possibly staples and industrials.
I WILL BE OUT OF EVERYTHING, or HEDGED BY AUGUST 22
August 22-24 is when BRICS meets. August 24-26 is the FED symposium at Jackson Hole. Both of these can wreck the markets.
Here is the Nasdaq with the vertical white line at the 2022 Jackson Hole symposium and showing the daily price action in red at the bottom. In yellow, I highlighted a familiar looking price action.😉
And here is the Dow from the last FED symposium.
That shows why I'm cautious ⚠️ about the FED symposium. Now BRICS. The title of the FED symposium is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," This title is not a coincidence. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) meets to discuss...?
I'll let you decide which headline to believe. The dollar is in its final stages. Believe it or not, the world is changing. Be prepared.
The drop from here will be massive. The Nasdaq should go below 10000. I have April-May as the next bottom.
I'm long for the quick ride up.
Here is the QQQ
I expect a run-up, maybe as high as 382, but I'm cautious at 377.
Here are some stocks I'm in for the run-up.
Here are some ETFs I'm in for the long commodities super cycle. I have individual stocks also. These I will not sell, I will hedge for downside (using $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ ).
A crazy run in the steel companies as $United States Steel (X.US)$ rejected a 7 billion cash and stock bid offer from $Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$ also breaking after hours was a second all cash offer from a competitor. Hang onto your hats!
Really big run, it looks very vertical needs a cool down but not yet.
Same as OIH
essentially the same as XOP, only cheaper.
Broke down on China economic pullback news. Another long hold and add for me.
Gold Miners, a long play.
As I said, I'm long for the way up. I take profits daily and am cautious on this rebound. The commodities super cycle is still happening, but everything gets thrown out in selloffs. That is why I say I will be out or hedged on everything. Trade safe, be cautious. i hope this update helps.
looking for the reversal to hold. we still could get a drop to 363 before a rebound, but I still like the rebound to play out. The FED notes from their July meeting get released tomorrow 2 hrs before the market closes. I'm looking for that to be a catalyst up until August 22-24.
Be Safe, Be Careful, Be Wise
and as always
Good Luck ![]()
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i short the sheriff : Much obliged sir ! intuitive analysis
Mike Obama : great read iamiam!
question is your name of the biblical sense?
iamiamOP Mike Obama: kind of... do you know who Pete Weber is? he's a bowler who had an epic celebration where he was yelling, "Who do you think you are?... I am"
Mike Obama iamiamOP: I'll look him up. I was just curious. upon reading some scripture. Found stuff about iamiam. looked it up. went down a rabbit hole.
Mike Obama iamiamOP: ha! the intensity! good stuff
bwjx : The rebound did not hold today. Will there still be a rebound for the bears to pounce on.
iamiamOP bwjx: there will always be a rebound, we did reach 363. we could rebound anytime. but a sharp selloff first is not out of the question.
iamiamOP bwjx: we broke below the 50MA. that could lead to a selldown, but we hit my 363 target and have been oversold, so i would expect some kind of rebound. If we can get a solid rebound with shorts covering, we could see a wow day. But caution
all around.
Susu127 : Look forward to your next post!