U.S. inflation shows signs of easing with core PCE seeing lowest annual gain since April 2021

Core PCE inflation annualized:
1 month: 2.0%
3 months: 2.4%
6 months: 2.5%
12 months: 3.5%

we're almost at the soft landing.

U.S. inflation shows signs of easing with core PCE seeing lowest annual gain since April 2021

If you exclude housing or treat it differently the story is a bit better.
3-month annualized inflation:
Core w/ new rent: 1.5%
Core ex housing: 1.7%
Core ex housing & used cars: 2.1%
Core services ex housing: 2.7%
(Note the last always runs high, is equivalent to 2% PCE.)

Still a bit nervous that imputed stuff like portfolio fees was a big part of keeping inflation lower over the last 2 months. Market-based core is a better signal, more connected to economic conditions, and up a lot in Sep and Oct.
But even this is 2.5% annual rate over 6 months.

Here is overall inflation.

Here are all the measures discussed above. Would be great to see two more months of good data like the last several months. Outside of these data the labor market still looks tight and nominal wage growth high. So no victory yet, but getting a lot closer.

Stock Market Performance: As of late November, Wall Street exhibited modest gains. The $Dow Jones Industrial Average(.DJI.US)$ , $S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ , and $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ all closed in positive territory, with sectors like consumer discretionary and real estate performing well. Investors' sentiments were buoyed by the possibility of the Federal Reserve refraining from further interest rate hikes.

📈 Today's focus: ISM Manufacturing PMI. Fed Chair Powell engages in two events. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$

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efficentupup

True and timely

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