TSMC Smashes Q4: USD Growth Set to Surge

Moomoo Insights joined discussion · Jan 9 00:21

TSMC Q4 NTD Revenue Beats Expectations, USD Revenue Growth Poised to Level Up

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ released its December 2025 revenue data today. NTD revenue came in at NT$335 billion, representing a 20.4% year over year increase and a 2.5% month over month decline. This marks a record high for the period and exceeds the market expectation range of NT$292.5 billion to NT$310.9 billion. TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue totaled NT$1,046 billion, up 20% year over year and 6% quarter over quarter, setting a new all time high.

TSMC Smashes Q4: USD Growth Set to Surge

Notably, due to exchange rate factors, TSMC's USD revenue growth has consistently outpaced its NTD revenue growth in recent quarters. In Q3 2025, USD revenue growth exceeded NTD revenue growth by 11 percentage points on a year over year basis. TSMC officially provides earnings guidance in USD terms. Based on the Q4 exchange rate guidance from the previous quarter's earnings report, Q4 USD revenue is calculated at $34.19 billion, surpassing the guidance range of $32.2 billion to $33.4 billion.

AI Cabinet Ramp-Up Drives Accelerated Earnings Across the Supply Chain

Driven by the continued volume growth of AI cabinets, notably represented by $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 's GB300 NVL72, the three major global AI server ODM companies, Foxconn, Wistron, and Quanta, all maintained strong revenue growth in December, with monthly revenues continuing to hit record highs for the period.

However, in contrast to this strong earnings momentum, stock prices across the AI semiconductor supply chain have recently begun to weaken. The market is showing signs of a style rotation from semiconductors to other sectors.

Option Market Signals

TSMC exhibits a pronounced defensive posture in the derivatives market as the put/call ratio has climbed to a bearish 1.74 on total open interest of 1.68 million contracts, signaling aggressive institutional hedging despite the stock's recent price resilience.

While implied volatility at 41% maintains a premium over the historical volatility of 35%, the relatively low IV Rank of 17 indicates that options premiums remain historically inexpensive and are facilitating this rush for downside protection.

The data reveals a distinct skew where market participants are prioritizing capital preservation and bracing for potential turbulence rather than positioning for an extension of the current rally.

Check out moomoo's past insights on TSM:

TSMC Smashes FY25Q3 Estimates, Raises Guidance on Unrelenting AI Demand

TSMC FY25Q3 Earnings Preview: CoWoS, Arizona, Guidance

From Clouds to Foundries: Who Really Wins in the AI Chip Gold Rush?

TSMC FY25Q2 Earnings Review：AI Strength Overcomes Macro Headwinds

TSMC FY25Q2 Earnings Preview: AI Boom vs. Margin Gloom?

TSMC FY25Q1 Earnings Review: Only Tariffs Can Defeat the Chip Giant

TSMC FY25Q1 Earnings Preview: AI Momentum Set to Fuel Record Growth

TSMC FY24Q4 Earnings Preview: Anticipating Strong Results Amid AI Demand Boom

Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more