🚗 TSLA | Tesla's Double Calendar Options before Earnings | Capture Rising Volatility with Mixed Sentiment

Hey Moomoo traders! 🚀

Instead of guessing direction, I’m setting up a Double Calendar — a professional pre-earnings strategy built to capture rising implied volatility (IV) and time decay on both sides before the earnings announcement.

If you’re new or curious about how I plan trades and structure options strategies, my detailed cheatsheet has all the details. Check it out for a full breakdown of my process:

October seems to offer mixed data (past bearish vs present bullish) but a very strong move with a high standard deviation (22.37). This is evident especially after earnings based on 'expected vs actual move' data. As its 16 days before earnings, I would focus on capturing rising volatility instead for this high beta stock at 2.07.

Source: Tradingview.com

Source: Tradingview.com

– Still profitable in a price-cut cycle — resilience in margins.

– Energy storage & Dojo AI investments may unlock new revenue lines in 2025–2026.

– Gross & operating margins shrinking (−11–38 % YoY) due to price competition.

– Revenue growth flattening (+2.48 %) shows EV market saturation risk.

– Profitability compression could continue if macro demand slows or inventory builds up.

– High R&D spend may weigh on short-term EPS until new AI/robotaxi models scale.

– Support: $320-$350

– Resistance: $450-$480

– Next earnings: ~16 days away at Oct 22 2025 (AMC)

– Next profit target: Based on consensus rating, profit target is between $365.92 - $600 (or an average $483 target)

– Analyst consensus: Hold

– Implied volatility: Rising toward 60%+ as traders prepare for earnings (historically 40–45%).

Over the last 10 years, Tesla stock has surged +2,586.44%.

💡 If you had invested $10,000 in 2015, it would be worth about $268,600 today.

That long-term growth and volatility make Tesla one of the best candidates for option premium strategies like calendars and diagonals.

🎯 Goal: Profit from rising volatility and time decay before earnings, without needing a strong price move.

Right now, IV is higher than HV. If the front month is short against the back month, it will be profitable when the price between both calendars widened.

– Front Month

– Back Month

🧩 This structure sells short-dated options that decay quickly while holding longer-dated ones that benefit from IV rise.

🧾 Options Expiration: Sell October 24, 2025 (18 DTE) and Buy November 7, 2025 (32 DTE)

💰 Max Profit: ~ $1634.50⚠️ Max Loss: ~$1367.99🎯 Breakeven: ~ $403.442 & $528.392

✅ Max profit: If TSLA stays near the short strikes ($403-528)

⚠️ Max risk: Limited to the net debit paid for both calendars.

📈 Best case: Volatility rises into earnings + stock stays range-bound.

📉 Worst case: Large breakout before earnings reduces tent value.

1. Enter about 10–14 days before earnings (from 10th October onwards) when IV begins to rise.

2. Target 20-30% profit

3. Exit before earnings to prevent IV crush

4. Avoid holding through earnings

5. Manage actively if price breaks the $403 or $528 range.

– Captures pre-earnings IV rise

– Limited risk compared to naked call or put options.

– Profits from time decay and range-bound action.

– Loses value if TSLA makes large directional moves early.

– Requires monitoring and possible rolling adjustments.

– Modest profit range — not for momentum chasers.

– Fundamentals: Strong balance sheet + steady growth.

– Technical: Consolidating under resistance, bullish bias.

– Sentiment: IV rising → setup for premium sellers.

– Strategy: Double Calendar — trade volatility, not direction.

– Edge: High backtested consistency in pre-earnings periods.

How about you? Are you already in the ride with options or stock for TSLA, or waiting for the best timing?

Comment down below so we can learn from different outlooks, theses, and strategies from each other—don't be shy!

Happy trading this week!

📌 This post is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk. Always DYOR before trading.