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Trader’s Look at Market – “Bad data, good market” (16 Jan 2025)

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Ken Low wrote a column · Jan 16 08:22
Global markets
Soft CPI, market Yahoo! Overnight, market enjoyed risk off mode as CPI rosed by 0.4% monthly, and core CPI only increased by 0.2% monthly, below consensus of 0.3%.
Bloomberg source: US Treasury 10-year yield graph
Trader’s Look at Market – “Bad data, good market” (16 Jan 2025)
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ US Treasury 10-year yield took a pause from the recent high of 4.80% to decline to 4.6%. $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ DJ +1.65%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ S&P500 +1.83%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Nasdaq +2.45%. Nasdaq rallied the most as tech sector is interest rates sensitive.
Bloomberg source: VIX graph
Trader’s Look at Market – “Bad data, good market” (16 Jan 2025)
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ VIX (S&P500 1-month implied volatility) retreated the gain from 22% on 11 Jan to settle at 16% overnight. The lower the VIX, the better the risk sentiment.
Investors are still positioning for a slower monetary easing cycle, but from 1 cut to 1.5 cut of 25 bps in year 2025. Bond futures price in next cut of 0.25% in 18 June FOMC meeting and another 50% chance of cut of 0.25% in 10 December meeting.
Malaysia markets
Local Macro
Local currency managed to defend the $USD/MYR (USDMYR.FX)$ 4.50 level. MGS 10-year yield closed almost unchanged at 3.87%.
KLCI Performance
The risk sentiment was further deteriorated. $FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (.KLSE.MY)$ KLCI lost the ground and collapsed to 1,562 (-14.34).
Malaysia equity flow (MYR million)
Trader’s Look at Market – “Bad data, good market” (16 Jan 2025)
Foreign or offshore continued selling domestic equities yesterday at MYR 328 mil before US CPI number. YTD equity flow was MYR – 1.5 billion, inserting pressure on MYR as well.
Sectoral performance (%)
Trader’s Look at Market – “Bad data, good market” (16 Jan 2025)
A sea of red for all sectors. Construction sector was the biggest loser, led by $GAMUDA (5398.MY)$ GAMUDA (-5.72%). The sentiment would be better after softer core CPI data released by the US.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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Ken Low
Head of Dealing, Moomoo Malaysia
Experienced trader at bank, covering equity, FX, commodity & derivatives. Specialize in market making & flow trading.
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