The Top Ten Narratives of Crypto in 2025 and Three Predictions for 2026 (Easter Egg at the End)

The author of this article, Charlie, is the former Vice President of Strike, a cryptocurrency unicorn (involved in El Salvador's Bitcoin bill and responsible for Bitcoin and stablecoin payment businesses in Latin America), a macro analyst at Franklin Templeton, a trillion-dollar fund, and an early member of Adyen North America, a global payment giant. He currently serves as a cryptocurrency strategic advisor to multiple listed companies, startups, and investment institutions.

In 2025, when we look back on human history, it may be regarded as the watershed year for crypto going mainstream.

This year, we not only have new narratives to tell but also mature business models that can be scaled up, and recognized laws and regulations that legitimize us in the mainstream market.

There are structured ETFs and DATs, regulated US dollars (stablecoins, tokenized deposits), regulated institutions (Wall Street), secondary markets themselves (Nasdaq), and even the White House and Capitol Hill – all making a forward-looking judgment: the benefits of moving traditional finance and commerce onto the crypto track are worth bearing the operational and compliance risks we previously worried about.

If 2024 was the 'Return of the Crypto King' year (arguably a 'king-maker,' to some extent a key factor in Trump's election), then 2025 will undoubtedly be the year of 'Crypto Going Mainstream.'

Below, I’ll discuss the ten most important themes for 2025 in my view, and – if I had to make a bet on 2026 – the three macro trends I believe will truly influence next year's market direction.

This article is translated from my original English Substack post (you can click 'Read Original' to view it), so the language habits and expressions may feel a bit off in Chinese. I ask for your understanding, though it shouldn’t affect comprehension.

1. Crypto's repackaged distribution channels: ETF pathways, DAT trends, and crypto IPOs

In a year seemingly dominated by stablecoins, putting these repackaged products at the top indeed requires some explanation.

My reasoning is this: Stablecoins change 'what people do on-chain,' at most being a crypto product that has found PMF (Product-Market Fit); whereas these repackaged products change 'who can hold these assets and under what rules,' acting as crypto's distribution channels.

Friends who’ve started businesses know that distribution channels are more important than specific products – because only through distribution channels can a product with PMF truly be accepted by the mainstream in the real world.

On the US side, the SEC opened up 'physical creation and redemption' for crypto ETFs/ETPs on July 29. This isn’t just a conceptual change in legal terms; it means that ETF products will track the underlying asset prices more closely, with less friction and a structure more akin to regular commodity ETFs rather than a patchwork specifically designed for crypto.

Following mid-September, the SEC further approved a universal listing standard – the market naturally interpreted this as a signal to accelerate: it was not a special approval for an individual product but rather building a shelf capable of holding an entire lineup of crypto ETFs, effectively expediting the progress of ETFs for cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin (BTC).

The story of 'shell companies' isn't confined to the ETF space alone.

DAT digital asset corporate treasuries have emerged as another distribution channel – using publicly listed corporate entities instead of fund structures to create shells in the public market.

Public data shows that Bitcoin-focused DAT-like companies are approaching 200. By the end of 2025, the more intriguing secondary effect will be that the market's pricing of these 'shells' themselves begins to rationalize, with premiums compressed and mNAV under pressure when sentiment cools.

Then comes the true sense of 'shell': the IPO market restarts on its own.

Circle went public in August (ticker: CRCL), which is not only a milestone for Circle but also marks Wall Street's official recognition of the 'stablecoin' sector as a legitimate business.

Kraken, on the other hand, has opted for a confidential filing, aiming to go public ahead of the 2026 political cycle.

In Hong Kong, HashKey completed its IPO in December, further solidifying its position as the 'gateway to regulatory compliance in Asia.'

What is referred to as 'mainstreaming' in the real world means not just more discussions or hype, but distribution channels becoming more compliant, numerous, and larger in scale – a moment the crypto community has anticipated for years.

2. Stablecoins are everywhere: PMF, white-label issuers, and the 'new dollar species.'

Whether measured by actual usage or by its influence in public discourse, the protagonist of 2025 will undoubtedly be stablecoins.

It has become the default dollar interface within the crypto ecosystem and even the broader fintech field. Moreover, the entire tech stack is being seriously productized by mainstream players.

Stripe is the clearest signal.

In terms of team structure, this year it completed the acquisition of Bridge to fill out its stablecoin orchestration capabilities; acquired Privy to integrate embedded wallets into its system; and brought in the Valora team to enhance the C-end crypto product experience.

In terms of product portfolio, it has directly embedded stablecoin payments into the Optimized Checkout Suite, making stablecoin account capabilities the default option—not just for fintech and crypto PR purposes, but as a company genuinely treating stablecoins as a core product logic, betting that the future dollar stack will be programmable.

Meanwhile, some 'new dollar species' are proving to everyone that there's still room for design within the concept of 'stability.'

Take Ethena’s USDe, for example. Regardless of whether you like its risk model, it has indeed grown to a 'systemically important' scale, with peak supply nearing $150 billion.

Hyperliquid not only dominates perpetual contracts but also integrates stablecoins into its platform strategy through USDH, introducing issuer bidding, and directing quite the spectacle on X, attracting nearly all white-label stablecoin issuers.

The underlying logic behind these phenomena is: stablecoins have become both the unit of account and medium of exchange for cross-border balance sheets on the internet.

And it is precisely this established fact that has made it impossible for policymakers and banks to continue turning a blind eye.

3. A 180-Degree Turn by Policymakers: New Playbooks for Hong Kong, GENIUS, and the SEC

2025 marks the year when international financial markets shift their crypto policies from 'complete denial' to 'full embrace'.

Hong Kong has transitioned from a 'regulatory sandbox' to a complete system. In May, the Legislative Council passed the 'Stablecoin Regulations,' and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the relevant licensing regime will officially take effect on August 1st. Hong Kong's positioning is not just 'crypto-friendly,' but aims to become a 'compliance bridge' between global capital and the Chinese market.

In the United States, President Trump signed the GENIUS Act on July 18th, establishing a federal framework for payment stablecoins. Regardless of your political stance, the signal sent to the market is clear: stablecoins are no longer viewed as guerrilla hacks but as a formally recognized financial instrument.

Meanwhile, the SEC's stance has shifted from the suppressive position under former Chairman Gary Gensler to strategic leadership. 'Project Crypto' has officially launched and is regarded as the overarching guideline for digital asset regulation.

Even the Federal Reserve, often criticized for being slow to act, held a 'Payment Innovation Conference' in October attended by numerous fintech and crypto leaders. The discussions during the panels all pointed in one direction: stablecoins are increasingly being seen as legitimate payment infrastructure rather than an alternative option.

4. Tokenized Deposits: Banks Strike Back

As stablecoins begin to genuinely erode payment scenarios, banks must inevitably play their 'digital dollar' card—aiming to retain customer relationships, maintain compliance boundaries, and avoid losing deposit profits.

The most representative example in 2025 is undoubtedly JPMorgan.

In June, it conducted a Proof of Concept (POC) for a USD deposit token (JPMD) on Coinbase’s Base chain, clearly describing it as a representation of bank deposits mapped onto a public blockchain within a group of permissioned participants.

Tokenized deposits are not 'bank-issued stablecoins'; the two represent different political economy considerations:

Stablecoin issuers are essentially competing with bank deposits for funds, while tokenized deposits aim to preserve the existing status of deposits.

Stablecoins pursue cross-platform interoperability, whereas tokenized deposits focus on maintaining the established order within their own domain.

Compared to stablecoins as the 'fintech version of the dollar,' tokenized deposits represent the banking system's statement: we can also become programmable, but we won’t hand over our balance sheets or user relationships.

5. Everything onchain: The allure of tokenized stocks, RWA, and a '7×24 hour market'.

'Everything onchain' is no longer just a slogan; by 2025, it has become a tangible product roadmap.

Robinhood’s opening up tokenized holdings of over 200 US stocks and ETFs to European users marks the shift of tokenization from traditional financial pilots into the main battlefield of retail distribution.

As tokenized stock exposure becomes possible, activities such as collateralization, lending, structured products, and even corporate operational behaviors will naturally be drawn to this track.

This will inevitably lead to further regulatory refinement—tokenized stocks force everyone to confront issues like investor protection and rights boundaries that were previously blurred.

On the institutional side, tokenization is filling in the 'yield layer': combinations like money market funds, commercial paper, and real estate—the 'old wine in new bottles'—are becoming yield options that stablecoins failed to provide.

The biggest unlock in 2025 is not technology, but the shift in institutional attitudes—where institutions begin to view on-chain issuance as a normal distribution option for traditional products rather than an innovative experiment.

6. The Payment Network War: CPN vs Global Dollar Network, and the rise of native stablecoin chains

Stablecoins require not only issuers but also networks—partners that unify standards, ensure compliance collaboration, and reduce pre-funding requirements and friction in distribution.

Circle launched Circle Payments Network (CPN), positioning it as a compliance-focused global stablecoin payment coordination layer.

Paxos’ Global Dollar Network (USDG) emphasizes an 'open network,' with Visa and Mastercard directly announcing support for multiple stablecoins. While CPN is USDC-centric, Paxos is betting that the real competition for stablecoins will occur at the network layer, rather than through price wars between issuers.

At the same time, a new wave of chains designed by 'payment service providers' rather than 'public chain idealists' has emerged:

Circle introduced Arc, a Layer 1 chain specifically built for stablecoin financial use cases.

Tempo, born from the lineage of Stripe + Paradigm, positions itself as 'payment-first' infrastructure.

Plasma, backed by Tether, boldly brands itself as the 'dedicated stablecoin chain.'

For fintech operators in 2026, the harsh reality is that distribution is becoming a game between payment networks, and your stablecoin strategy is increasingly about choosing sides rather than simply which stablecoin issuer to back.

7. Perpetual DEX Grows Up: Hyperliquid, On-Chain Microstructure, and the Blurring of CEX Boundaries

CEX used to dominate this industry, but the narrative shifted in 2025 — even CZ publicly stated his belief that DEX trading volume will eventually surpass that of CEXs.

What truly changed is not the ideological battle between centralization vs decentralization, but rather that 'on-chain execution' found its PMF, with perpetual contracts as the breakthrough.

The CoinGecko 2025 report shows that the top ten perpetual DEXs recorded approximately $1.5 trillion in trading volume in 2024, a significant year-on-year increase, with Hyperliquid accounting for over half of Q4's volume.

This is the first time we can confidently say: for a portion of mature capital, on-chain venues are no longer an 'alternative channel,' but are becoming the default option.

CEXs responded much like any entrenched interest group: copying features, lowering fees, and launching product lines with an 'on-chain feel.'

Binance’s ecosystem around Aster exemplifies a combined offensive and defensive strategy — the narrative of DEXs, the distribution power of CEXs, and a roadmap that integrates the strengths of both.

On the other hand, Hyperliquid’s expansion into native stablecoins like USDH demonstrates their ambition: once you win users, you’ll want to win their collateral too.

Boundaries are rapidly blurring; the battleground is no longer simply 'on-chain vs off-chain,' but rather: risk boundaries, compliance posture, distribution channels, and — increasingly crucially — who controls the margin 'dollars' supporting the system.

8. Agentic Commerce Truly Materializes: Payments Enter the Chat Box, and 'Trust' Becomes Infrastructure

The most important development in the AI + Crypto intersection in 2025 is not 'AI agents autonomously trading cryptocurrencies on-chain,' but rather AI agents starting to genuinely 'spend money to buy things.'

Stripe and OpenAI have turned 'completing payments within a chat' into reality—through Instant Checkout, the Agentic Commerce Protocol, and Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite, treating agent channels as first-class distribution interfaces in their design.

Once we accept that 'agents autonomously spending' isn't just a wild idea but an actual demand, the role of crypto shifts noticeably from a 'speculative asset' to a 'settlement currency between machines.'

Therefore, protocol standards capable of supporting AI at scale become crucial:

Coinbase’s x402 initiative seeks to revive HTTP 402, transforming it into an internet-level payment primitive;

ERC-8004 supports a framework for delegation and execution constraints that minimizes trust as much as possible.

Even Ethereum’s year-end Fusaka upgrade can be part of this narrative—it’s infrastructure work aimed at 'reducing costs and increasing capacity,' making high-frequency, small-value interactions on-chain (or on Ethereum-protected L2s) no longer impractical.

For Agentic Commerce, 'perfect decentralization' is not a necessity; what’s truly needed are cheap verification, clear constraints, and rails that can still operate smoothly under real traffic.

In terms of geographic focus: AI + Crypto agentic commerce will remain centered in Silicon Valley, while the development of stablecoins and RWAs increasingly resembles a New York story.

Prediction markets: The crypto-native Polymarket brings information on-chain.

The real breakout of prediction markets is expected to occur during the 2024 U.S. presidential election — that week not only brought an unprecedented level of users, but also allowed everyone to experience for the first time on an internet scale the perception of 'odds themselves as a product.'

By the end of 2025, this sector will continue to expand, and crucially, the attention it attracts will have evolved into a 'capital formation' story.

Polymarket and Kalshi's trading volumes hit record highs, even surpassing those during the election period.

Kalshi raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation; Polymarket, meanwhile, reached its 'traditional giant endorsement' moment — with ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, announcing a strategic investment of up to $2 billion, valuing it at approximately $8 billion.

From a crypto perspective, Polymarket, this global consumer information market platform, is entirely crypto-native in its architecture — using USDC for trading and clearing on Polygon. As this product grows, it will naturally bring stablecoin rails and Layer 2 throughput into the mainstream cycle.

The breakout of these two leading companies has driven ecosystem growth, while also bringing in various new players directly challenging existing platforms.

The 'information market/attention market' has become a new asset class, and crypto is well-positioned to serve as the infrastructure for this global market targeting the next generation of young people.

10. October Stress Test: All-Time Highs, Pullbacks, and Narrative Tax

Even in the best of years, there will be moments of pullback and skepticism. For 2025, that moment comes in October.

Bitcoin surged above $126,000 in October, hitting a new all-time high before quickly pulling back, with a decline of about one-third.

That price movement didn't feel like a 'normal pullback,' but rather a collective market reminder of an old question: what does leverage do to the narrative?

A标志性微观事件 is the fluctuation of Ethena's USDe on Binance — during volatile conditions, USDe showed significant depegging on this leading platform.

Although Binance later attributed the issue to pricing/oracle mechanisms and provided compensation arrangements, the incident brought an uncomfortable truth to light: when structures are complex and platforms under pressure, 'stability' remains largely a confidence game.

The lesson at the end of the year was more structural.

2025 pushed crypto into the mainstream, but quickly reminded everyone — reflexivity remains the tax this system pays for 'speed + leverage + composability.'

Wall Street's embrace brought mainstream capital, but also liquidity side effects, especially during moments when other asset allocations needed rebalancing or liquidation.

The dream of crypto's mainstream market has been realized, but is the weight of its crown as light as you imagined?

Three potential storylines that could define 2026

If I were to make ten 'precise predictions,' I'm sure 80% of them would seem embarrassing in hindsight. So instead, let’s outline three macro storylines I believe will truly drive the narrative.

First storyline: The U.S. continues to lead and export the concept of 'everything on-chain'

The US stablecoin bill has triggered a 'follow-up wave' in other international financial markets, with market-structure-related legislation also in the works.

Once the US clarifies the regulatory framework for securities and commodity-like assets on-chain, other jurisdictions will gradually align—not because they suddenly trust crypto, but because they are unwilling to lose out on global issuance and trading volumes.

By that time, the meaning of 'everything on-chain' will change:

It will no longer be just about 'real-world assets being tokenized,' but will begin to incubate entirely new asset classes—ranging from novel forms of stocks, bonds, and funds, to previously undefined 'financial products' in their raw forms.

Point Two: AI × Crypto, Centralization vs. Decentralization Collide Head-On

So far, AI has mostly been about 'a few big companies’ earnings reports': model companies, the three major cloud giants, GPU/TPU manufacturers, all of whom have significantly outpaced the market average in revenue, capital expenditure, and net profit growth.

When computing power, data, and distribution are highly capital-intensive and concentrated on a few balance sheets, the so-called 'AI economy' is essentially controlled by these companies in a cyclical manner.

In such a world, crypto isn’t asking whether 'AI agents can use tokens,' but rather:

Within the entire agent stack, which parts do we genuinely want to remain neutral, open, and shareable, rather than defined solely by data center owners?

Agentic Commerce is one scenario where this question is brought into reality.

On one hand, the agency needs strong identity, responsibility tracing, and dispute resolution, which naturally pushes it towards a centralized role; on the other hand, it also requires programmable constraints and interoperable money, which naturally points to an open and trust-neutral track.

I believe the winning combination will most likely openly acknowledge this asymmetry: use centralized AI infrastructure where necessary, and keep things open — especially payments, permissions, and state — as much as possible on still competitive and composable infrastructure.

Third point: the connection between crypto and the real world is no longer just theoretical.

Electricity, originally one of the least noticeable costs of AI, is likely to become one of the core entry points where AI intersects with crypto.

New data centers built for training and inference are pushing up the already strained power grid load that also needs to handle climate fluctuations. Energy is no longer just an idealistic ESG concept but a real bottleneck to growth.

At this point, DePIN, a concept once considered fringe, has the opportunity to evolve from a “narrative” into a “tool”: using tokenized incentives to coordinate the construction and financing of computing power, connectivity, and energy infrastructure, especially in places where the traditional power grid coverage is insufficient, financial models struggle to operate, but new infrastructure is indeed needed for the AI and data era.

Crypto will either truly secure a place in the capital stack of these new infrastructures, or it will realize that much of the “RWA story” that has been fervently discussed over the past two years remains mostly on paper.

If you’ve read this far, here’s an extra tidbit:

Can “ownership,” the philosophical foundation of web3, solve the social problems that AI is about to exacerbate?

Beneath these three main threads lies an even more severe macro context.

In many countries, a generation of "new middle class" is witnessing the gradual erosion of real purchasing power year by year; at the same time, the productivity revolution brought by AI is hollowing out entry-level jobs that once served as the 'entry ticket' in multiple industries, leading to unprecedented high youth unemployment rates.

In the future, an increasing amount of income will be earned online, settled cross-border, and occur in environments where users trust platforms more than local banks or governments.

The returns on capital will accelerate through compounding, while the returns on labor will struggle to keep up.

In such a world, crypto is gradually becoming less of a narrative and more of a hedge against impending socioeconomic pressures.

Flowing along the same track are not only stablecoins, various tokens, and yield products, but also slices of new capital stock: networks, infrastructure, cash flows not locked into a single country or employer, and purchasing power no longer eroded by excessive money printing and hyperinflation.

Crypto is becoming the foundational infrastructure of this emerging capital formation system — and whether young people and the squeezed middle class can secure sufficient ownership stakes will largely determine whether they use this system to climb out of AI-induced poverty traps or remain firmly locked within them.

This concluding note may sound a bit heavy, but it indeed reflects profound real-world challenges worth contemplating.

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