to all of the people that don't understand
$Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US)$ not that I'm a fan of Josh Brown but he just said something and I want to share it because I caught shit from a lot of idiots on this stock forum that told me I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about I caught a lot of shit from your hero Eric Jackson and his million idiot followers on x that lit into me like a Roman candle... they were saying that I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about.. so here's a little food for thought because I have told everybody the Federal reserve does not determine the 30-year mortgage and that the rate cuts from the Federal reserve are irrelevant to the 30-year fixed rate loan and the facts are that the cost of borrowing for a 30-year went up after they cut rates within minutes a 30-year loan was a tenth of a percent higher than where it was before.
and all these idiot buffoons they think they know shit are about to hear from a guy on national TV that will put things straight and kaz doesn't know shit because on his fucking conference call he's telling the world that the FED is going to lower rates and the FEDS move makes it easier for home buyers to buy a house he's a fucking idiot he doesn't understand or he's an intentionally deceiving his shareholders that he proclaims that he loves so much
so watch and listen and learn
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37+ yrs in the trenches, raised 100mil for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk
opinion not financial advice
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VicVegas007 : and just to show your point, the 10 yr yield has been higher lately and mortgage rates went up today
Xiaoya Chen : 30-yr mortgage rate doesn’t instantly react to a Fed cut — it adjusts over months through the bond market, inflation expectations, and MBS spreads.
Kaz is describing the long-term impact on housing activity.
You’re referencing the immediate post-announcement volatility.
Those are two completely different things.
10baggerbamm OP Xiaoya Chen : look buddy I'm not going to engage in stupidity the Federal reserve raising or lowering interest rates it does not move the 30 year fucking fixed rate
I made tens of millions of dollars in the business I venture to say you know shit about it you've never spent day fucking one as an owner operator of a Nationwide mortgage company, you don't know shit the 10-year treasury is what determines the 30-year fixed rate that's it nothing more nothing less take a class learn something because you're part of the fucking problem in the market you get idiots that repeat what's wrong and it gains traction.
so stop your bullshit because you have no idea and you're completely wrong the head of the Federal reserve if they cut in December it will have zero impact on the 30-year fixed rate loan in fact the three other times that they have cut the cost of borrowing for a 30-year fixed rate increase so you're fucking wrong
Xiaoya Chen 10baggerbamm OP : You’re talking about immediate pricing of the 30-yr mortgage.
I’m talking about the trajectory of mortgage rates over the following months — which is what matters for housing activity and for Opendoor’s volumes.
The Fed doesn’t set the 30-yr rate directly — everyone already knows that.
But Fed cuts affect inflation expectations, long-term yields, MBS spreads, and demand for duration.
That’s why the market reprices over time, not in the first 10 minutes after a Fed announcement.
You keep repeating that the 10-yr determines the mortgage rate.
Yes. Everyone knows that.
That’s exactly why people look at how Fed policy reshapes the path of the 10-yr over the next 3–6 months.
You’re describing a snapshot.
I’m describing a cycle.
Two different conversations
10baggerbamm OP Xiaoya Chen : look I'm done with you man I live my life in this industry I know it affects interest rates I know about operation twist I know about everything that the FED can do to manipulate and send the 10-year down I understand that if they stop unwinding and dumping mortgages because they've already dumped a trillion dollars off of their portfolio that you're going to have the 10-year reduce by about 75 to 80 basis points I understand all this shit okay the bottom line is Chairman Mao the Federal reserve is not doing anything to help the middle class it will take a new Federal reserve chairman before any of this happens and in the meantime every interest rate sensitive Bank stock real estate stock is solely dependent on lower rates in order to accelerate their fucking business so why don't you get a job as a loan officer and then you'll learn something first hand because all you're using is your fucking chat GPT bullshit I live this and that's a difference between me and you I know what impacts the fucking Market and you think you do
Kevin Chen15 : Based on what you said, the September new home sales data should not have exceeded expectations.Economic dataMoreover, this is still under the condition that no interest rate cuts have occurred. Before that, the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds were publicly accessible! The primary reason why people are either hesitant or not in a rush to move or buy new homes now is that the fixed mortgage rates on their current properties are sufficiently low! Additionally, the new home price data in California has continued to fall short of expectations (although there is an upward trend). At this moment, it is unclear whether real estate developers and mortgage companies are suffering more, or if sales platforms and homebuyers are struggling more. Almost forgot to mention that even new housing starts data are declining. This indicates that the housing market will self-adjust according to supply and demand. Of course, it is true that the CEO lacks experience since he is analyzing Opendoor’s housing sales platform from an e-commerce perspective — which is understandable. What we should truly be concerned about is how much the commercial real estate loan interest rates might surge and how many regional banks may be affected.
Xiaoya Chen 10baggerbamm OP : You actually just confirmed my entire point.
You’re describing balance-sheet runoff, MBS supply, QT, and how the Fed influences duration demand — and all of that shapes the multi-month path of the 10-year yield.
That’s exactly what I was talking about.
No one here said the Fed ‘sets’ the 30-yr mortgage rate directly.
The discussion was about how Fed policy — rate cuts, slowing QT, reinvestment changes — influences the trajectory of long-term yields and, in turn, housing activity.
You’re talking about the micro mechanics of mortgage pricing.
I’m talking about the macro rate cycle and housing dynamics.
Two different layers of the same system.
Getting emotional and calling people names won’t change the data.
We were never discussing the same time horizon in the first place.
And honestly, I’m not sure why you’re coming in here with this level of hostility.
If you own Opendoor and don’t like the stock, you can simply sell it.
If you don’t own it, why come here intentionally stirring up negativity and confusion?
Actual shareholders don’t spend their time trying to drag down their own position — only people waiting for a dip or trying to talk the stock down do that.
Your motivations are pretty clear.
10baggerbamm OP : you're incorrect they did allude to the Federal reserve cutting rates will reduce the cost of homeowners primary mortgage that's your 30 mortgage that's what was said don't try to put the genie back in the bottle and tap dance for cash or these other idiots on TV that don't know shit because I hear this all the time from the self-proclaimed experts that play a parrot and just repeat what somebody else says.
I've clarified people time after time that when the FED cuts it will lower a home equity line of credit that's a second mortgage it will lower a car payment it will lower a personal loan it will lower credit card rates it also lowers your money market the rate that you're going to get on your money market because that's mostly short-term paper in there
so cost of borrowing to a consumer via credit cards will go down marginally tiny tiny tiny bit maybe cuz a lot of times credit card companies will keep that rate high unless somebody else lowers the rate and then they potentially lose that balance because it gets transferred from one company to another
so I understand what I'm talking about and I know what people said I listen very closely
as far as the Dynamics in the housing marketplace micro Chairman Mao the Federal reserve just sent foreclosures to a multi-year high in October they were up 19% you had almost 37,000 properties going to foreclosure and the primary reason is the people need a lower rate and they can't refinance all of the ancillary costs associated with owning a house have increased their property taxes have increased cost of repairs have increased everything has gone up except their wage and I'm talking a broad paintbrush just so that we're clear hire for longer rates destroys equity so if some of these people did try to refinance now they find out they got negative equity in their house they throw the keys in the fucking mailbox and they walk away that's your foreclosures accelerating that's the Federal reserve intentionally destroying the value of properties I have written about this and talked about this all year long at nauseam that the Federal reserve chairman Mao lies to the American public that their dual mandate and they're looking out for the American people the middle class it's fucking bullshit because foreclosures are skyrocketing yet again this is 100% because of the Federal reserves policies are restrictive.
so I understand micro I understand macro I understand what impact property values and how to destroy the middle class.
I've lived this my entire life the entire industry between financial service and lending in the banking marketplace that's my whole life so I will sit in a room with any economics professor whether they're Keynesian or supply side and I can go toe to toe with them because I understand everything they talk about
and when you get a CEO that talks shit like Kaz did he's in my opinion the same scumbag like the mayor of New York right now who smiles and lies to the American people except he's lying to his shareholders right now that's what he is doing because he's painting the bullshit story that they are a software company they use AI if he ever says the word real estate the stock is fucked so he's a master at illusion and bullshit I know it I see it I want people that own the stock to make money I'm just calling him out as a fucking liar as a scammer and is a fraud
Kevin Chen15 Xiaoya Chen : I have a small question. I’m not sure if it’s correct, but he seems to always approach the issue from the perspective of lending companies. However, based on the information I’ve gathered, isn’t it true that the ones most adversely affected by interest rate cuts are ultimately the lending companies?
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