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Bitcoin seesaws near $60K: Is 'stack and hold' still a good idea?
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Time to Buy Bitcoin? Historical Data Points to Strong Gains Six Months After Halving Events

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Moomoo News Global joined discussion · Aug 20 07:58
The cryptocurrency market has recently experienced significant fluctuations. Early August saw $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$'s price momentarily dip to $49,000 amid concerns over a potential U.S. economic downturn. Nevertheless, subsequent to the release of recent economic figures, a softening in market trepidation has contributed to Bitcoin's steady ascent, positioning it close to the $61,000 mark following a period of adjustment.
Despite this uptick, Bitcoin has still fallen roughly 6.5% since August, underperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq's 1.6% gains.
Time to Buy Bitcoin? Historical Data Points to Strong Gains Six Months After Halving Events
Historical Trends After Bitcoin Halving
A review of Bitcoin's historical performance reveals a pattern that unfolds in the six to twelve months following a Bitcoin halving event. Typically, it is within this timeframe that Bitcoin has breached its previous all-time highs and embarked on a new bullish phase, as illustrated in the chart below. According to this historical trend, this October will represent the six-month mark following the fourth Bitcoin halving of the year.
Time to Buy Bitcoin? Historical Data Points to Strong Gains Six Months After Halving Events
Institutional Investors Pile into Bitcoin ETFs
Recent data from SoSoValue on August 16th indicated a marked shift in investor sentiment, with net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounting to $32.58 million for the week. This contrasts sharply with the net outflows recorded in preceding weeks, which saw a withdrawal of $80.69 million on August 2nd and a substantial $169 million on August 9th.
Throughout the year, as Bitcoin gained mainstream asset class status through regulatory endorsement in the U.S., a growing number of traditional investors have embraced the cryptocurrency. Hedge funds, pensions, and banks have significantly increased their investments in exchange-traded funds that hold Bitcoin directly.
Bloomberg reports that the number of funds with disclosed spot-Bitcoin ETF positions has surged after the recent SEC filing deadline for second-quarter 13F reports. The total count of holders now stands at nearly 1,950, with 701 new funds reporting holdings. Prominent among the buyers are Millennium Management, Capula Investment Management, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, and Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management.
By the close of the second quarter, major investment entities such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley emerged as some of the predominant holders of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The increased crypto investments from their clients boosted the cumulative value to $4.7 billion, signaling a robust confidence in the digital asset's potential.
Divergent Views From Analysts
Michaël van de Poppe, a respected figure in the cryptocurrency analysis sphere, has recently shared a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that it is on the cusp of reaching unprecedented levels in the ensuing months. The analyst underscored the significant interest from institutional investors who are currently accumulating Bitcoin, signaling their confidence in the asset's value proposition. "As long as Bitcoin sustains the $57,500 threshold, we can anticipate a new all-time high to materialize in the September or October period," Van de Poppe predicted.
Complementing this viewpoint, Vishal Sacheendran, who heads regional markets at Binance, pointed to the current macroeconomic climate as a pivotal factor influencing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The potential commencement of a US Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle combined with the build-up to the forthcoming US presidential election in November are key events that could sway the cryptocurrency markets. Both elements contribute to a heightened sense of anticipation and could catalyze significant movements in Bitcoin's valuation as investors and traders look to navigate these macroeconomic developments.
Everyone's expecting the Fed rate cuts to happen in September, which is a catalyst that could trigger a cryptocurrency market rebound.
Some analysts hold cautious perspectives. Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist, Mike McGlone, has introduced a note of caution into the narrative. He suggests that Bitcoin could be at the forefront of a broader reversion in risk assets.
Born of the financial crisis and quantitative easing, Bitcoin has led most risk assets to this year's highs and may be doing the same on the way back down.
Source: Bloomberg, Benzinga, TheStreet
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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