The recent geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has led ma...

The recent Middle East geopolitical crisis has drawn many people's attention to geopolitical risks, causing more individuals to worry about the threat of war on risky markets. Some are even waiting for discounted asset prices triggered by geopolitical risks.

However, the conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East is not the first of its kind. Can you really wait for an even lower price? Will the asset decline caused by geopolitical conflicts truly meet your psychological expectations?

Let’s take a look together at the performance of the S&P 500 and #Bitcoin since 2024 after the conflict between Israel and Iran!

The first instance was also the first military conflict between the two countries in ten years, occurring from April 1 to April 13, 2024.

BTC experienced a short-term decline, followed by a rebound, then another decline, with a maximum drop of 15%.

The S&P 500 saw a slight decline, rebounded, then fell again, with a maximum drop of 3%.

The second instance occurred from June 13 to June 24, 2025.

BTC still follows the short-term pattern of falling then rebounding, then falling again, with a maximum drop of 10%.

The S&P 500 experienced a minor decline, rebounded, fell again, and maintained a volatile trend, with a maximum drop of 1.8%.

What conclusions can we draw?

Faced with geopolitical risks in the same region, risky assets will gradually become desensitized — from the largest drop during the first instance to a smaller drop the second time, showing gradual desensitization.

It’s important to note that both of these asset declines occurred during an upward trend. Currently, BTC is in a low trough after a deep correction. So, with the same geopolitical risk, how much could it fall during the third desensitization while already at a low point?

Being overly rigid in analysis is only for reference and cannot be relied on as 100% accurate. The desensitization to geopolitical risks is a normalization process as the market gradually adapts. For example, at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the risk market was greatly shaken. But as the conflict continues to this day, with both sides still exchanging fire daily, its impact on the risk market seems to be almost zero, and no one pays attention to the situation anymore.

Therefore, regarding Israel and Iran, unless this war escalates fully — involving ground invasions by Iran and the US akin to overseas conflicts — otherwise, if it remains limited to airstrikes and targeted strikes, the risk market will likely remain desensitized.

Returning to the topic of this article, given the current price of BTC, even if Israel and Iran were to engage in another round of airstrikes, where do you think BTC’s price would go?

A 15% drop from the current price would put it around 83,000, and a 10% drop would be near 87,000. Does that meet your expectations?

If you’ve avoided buying due to concerns about geopolitical risks, but when real geopolitical risks arrive and the price drop is not significant, will you dare to buy then?

What I want to tell all my fellow investors is that risks are a constant in the financial markets. The purpose of analyzing so much information is to reasonably identify risks, assess risks, reduce risks, control risks, hedge risks, and set appropriate risk expectations.

Instead of 'panicking at the slightest hint of trouble,' blindly assuming that risks will be significant or terrifying. Risks exist in the financial markets at all times, and what we need to do is implement risk control measures within our understanding.