The pullback crash toolkit if markets fall 20% again
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🏛️ Markets overnight signal the worst may not be over
US stocks tumbled overnight, with the Nasdaq 100 the biggest loser — falling 2.4% and wiping out gains led by Nvidia, which fell ~3%. The $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ is now almost in correction territory, down 8%. The Aussie market also looks like it’s heading for a correction.
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ continued its bear-market decline, shedding almost 4% to $87,177. It has now erased seven months of gains in just 50 days — down 30%. We cover the pullback crash toolkit today. Stocks to watch coming up.
It almost feels like we’re getting signals that it’s February all over again — before tech stocks fell 24%.The fact that key indices, Nvidia, and the king crypto Bitcoin all closed at their lows of the day suggests selling pressure is building. More dark days may be ahead for riskier assets before we can think about a meaningful rebound.
It almost feels like we’re getting signals that it’s February all over again — before tech stocks fell 24%.The fact that key indices, Nvidia, and the king crypto Bitcoin all closed at their lows of the day suggests selling pressure is building. More dark days may be ahead for riskier assets before we can think about a meaningful rebound.
If the trend is your friend, you have to believe it — and trust what prices are telling you. When markets keep hitting lower levels over several days and weeks, that suggests the pullback is not over.
Today’s focus: the pullback / market crash toolkit.......
🔱 A sanity check. We have been in this position before. Slow down. Focus on what matters
Let’s take a page from the Stoics, like Marcus Aurelius. We need to remember that what is happening in markets is what always happens. We worry the market will crash. We wonder if the bottom is in. We question our buy and sell decisions. We fear we got it wrong.
But I want us to remember: everyone is different. Whether you’re an investor or a trader, or who you are sitting next to. You need to slow down. Think. And watch price action for a few days or weeks before assuming a trend is in, or if we have a potential bottom is in— or a Santa Rally even comes at all. But I would encourage you to refocus on the long-term themes you believe will drive returns over the next decade, such as, AI, chips, data centres, uranium to power them, and lithium to build them.
Or what if you take a 5, 10, or 20-year view. With that view and mindset. You can think at a slower pace and focus on the quality stocks you want to buy if the crashes such as — Nvidia, Constellation Energy, Albemarle, Pilbara Minerals, etc.
Focus on what matters to you. Focus on your strategy. And your time frame.
🩸Why markets could fall further into a correction
Many on Wall Street now say markets could fall 10% before recovering. Here’s why:
1- Fear is rising. When fear rises ($VIX up), stocks fall. Fear has returned to tariff-level highs. Until fear falls, stocks can’t switch into rally mode.
2- Markets are adjusting to “no rate cuts”. The US Government is releasing data following the historic shutdown. Jobs and home-sales data show the US economy is still strong — meaning no need for rate cuts. Markets now see just a 35% chance of a cut in December, down from 70% a month ago.
3- Each data release that suggests “no cuts needed” pressures markets again.
🌿There's always a bull market somewhere. Where is the momentum?
There’s always a bull market somewhere. Healthcare is holding up: Regeneron hit new highs overnight — now up 52% from its lows. The US healthcare ETF IYH is trading near its highest levels since the August 2024 market crash.
Healthcare typically performs well when markets are bracing for slower growth or no rate cuts.
⚡ If markets do crash hard?
If markets correct 10% or fall into a bear market (down 20% for their highs) expect animal spirits to return. Investors to buy stocks that suddenly look cheap. This is how investment managers make money: buying long-term themes they believe in (at a discount). And remember the themes: AI, chips, data centres, uranium, lithium — all have strong multi-year tailwinds. And Nvidia. Yes $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ as I covered yesterday, it remains the only company of its size that has sold out all cloud GPU, is growing gross margins above 70%, has US$500 billion in AI-chip orders for 2025 and 2026. That’s extremely compelling so you'd expect Nvidia shares to recover from a market crash, as they historically do
Other stocks to add to your watchlist
$Walmart (WMT.US)$ shares gained 6.5% overnight after releasing results. Sales rose 4.5% for the quarter ending 31 October, and the retailer lifted its fiscal-year sales forecast to more than 5%. E-commerce growth was particularly strong. This wraps up a mixed quarter for US retailers, with Walmart, Amazon and TJ Maxx reporting solid demand driven by need-based spending, while Target and home-improvement chains Home Depot and Lowe’s underperformed.
$Oracle (ORCL.US)$ slid 6.6% overnight and has become something of a barometer for AI-related market risk. Its shares have now fallen 24% over the past month. A series of deals linking Oracle, Nvidia and OpenAI has fuelled concerns that AI valuations may have run too hot, too fast. Traders are increasingly betting the stock may face further pressure, reflected in credit-default swaps rising to a three-year high — a sign markets are pricing in higher perceived risk.
$Liontown Ltd (LTR.AU)$ Resources jumped 9.5% yesterday after completing its first digital spot sale auction of spodumene. The move comes as lithium prices rebound roughly 50% from their lows. Liontown’s share price has surged 206% year-to-date, including a 63% gain over the past month. Despite the sharp rally, analysts maintain an “underperform” consensus rating on the stock, signalling expectations of a potential pullback.
Other articles of interest
Please note I have published at least five articles warnings of a potential crash since I came back to work around October 17.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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151453268 witso : we were just discussing sentiment before Nvidia’s earnings release, there was a pulse, now this could be a flatline for a while, truly feeling analytics and timing were the symptoms see what happens.


10baggerbamm : My market crash toolkit typically consists of a bottle of Knob Creek a rock's glass and some ice. and it goes something like this
fuck it
ride it out
and then I tilt the glass..
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Fox45 10baggerbamm : maple knob creek