The Market
Good morning! I hope everyone is in the money and welcome, to The Market! The #1 most underrated market analysis on MooMoo :)
Unfortunately, I am not able to write an article today, but if you read my previous article
You will find I was 100% correct, yet again haha, on how the market would perform. We anticipated some upside, but not the upside bulls wanted to see, with the high possibility of a bull trap. Which is exactly, and entirley what we got. Whoever reads these and have been backtesting the things I say is making bank haha.
Actually you know what, lets chart really quickly. I am very busy, but I think I got this!
5 Intraday SPY
I don't entirley believe todays pre-market. I heard that $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ and $Microsoft(MSFT.US$ earnings were better than expected. Maybe it was something said in the earnings call. However, I have seen this before with Google. Earnings come out great, the stock tanks and we trend lower post-market and pre-market but on the open bulls buy the dip and the market Rips.
"Buy The Dip" is a term used by retail investors for predicting the recent swing low of a stock and loading it in hopes of a reversal to the upside. "Buy The Dip" is usually closely related to larger cap stocks, and hardly penny stocks. If you see someone saying "Buy The Dip" on a stock worth less than $1, 99% of the time that company is unprofitable and the dip is priced in. Meaning its there to stay for a while. Unlike $Apple(AAPL.US$ , which if it dips investors feel confident to either average down or load up at a lower price because everyone is certain APPL will recover since they are a profitable company ect.
SPY 4 Hour
You know what we have been doing all October and it's incredibly annoying and I bet other fututres traders can agree?
Ignore the large upwick candle. MooMoo's charts are NOTORIOUS for that and I wish they would do something about it
Becuase I am pretty certain the market did not jump to 432 after hours yesterday
Anyways
It could be the 4 hour, or even the 5 minute
10/20/2023 is the perfect day to describe this
We will be trending one way right? Well, the market doesn't like sharp moves upside or downside and almost always has some sort of reversal or liquidity grab whichever way we move.
But in the month of october, we would have the most perfect and technical break out pattern, only for the market to completely FAKE out and want a double retest of a trend.
For example. We are trending up here in the short term on the day. The market has found resistances and support and is moving upside. News comes out, bulls lose the tape, or something causes the market to drop below trend BUT as you can see
We retested the trend on the 5 minute. Perfect reversal down setup right? Not in october!
Market has a boner candle to the upside back to the top of the trend. Surely this means that the market is finding strong resistance and will reversal down right?
Nope!
We have to retest that same exact trend, pulling back from out of no where (not even VWAP) back to the trend before finally reversing to the downside.
My point is, for the whole month we have had bear flags, or reversal setups, that fake out the direction and require additonal uncommon retests of a trend or pattern. The market could set up perfectly for a reversal to the upside, and we may get it. BUT, not until we retest from the depths of the sea or the moon itself.
So coming back to the 4 hour, if you look at the chart the same thing might happen.
We saw the trendline, we reversed off the trend line twice, and started to move up right? Well, relative to each prior day, not really.
Kind of reminds me of these red candles from the 5 minute we just talked about. Although this is the market trying to reverse down, it's still relative to the reversal "trends" we have seen in October, even applying to when the market is trying to move to the upside as it is right now.
So I would not be shocked at all if the market did something crazy and do a hard and fast retest of the trend to the downside before exploding up.
The probability of that happening exists, but again, I could be entirley wrong. We will have to see.
I still think the market wants to move to the upside, but if we see another bull trap, then the probability of doing an October retest from the the cosmos increases.
SPY 1 hour
Neutral
5 Minute
Unusually choppy for 8:30am NYC...
OH MY GOSH
I FORGOT JEROME POWEL IS TODAY LOL
Jerome Powell alone could be the reason for the bull trap yesterday, which did eventually rebalance. But it explains the unusually choppy pre-market more. Could be very bearish, but I am not going to speak my thoughts on what he might say and stick to the charts.
Welp, look's like I had time to write this before my meeting. I hope I was able to help someone make money! Trade carefully, and let's see if we continue to trade sideways-and-up or will we crack the supports and retest the lows of the month.
Enjoy your morning and my best wishes / thoughts and feelings go out to all those affected by the escalating global conflicts. No one deserves to die, and I think the whole conflict itself is "priced in" but thats tin foil for another day and not sure if I can say it anyways. (Tin foil means little to no factual based evidence and is more of a conspiracy or "i don't know buuutttttt" sort of analysis). I appreciate each and every one of you and don't forget to take care of yourselves
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BigDickTrader : You’re wrong about Google lol
AkLiOP BigDickTrader: This morning is crazy haha