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Semiconductors at a crossroads: Can AI stocks extend their rally?
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Waiting anxiously for an inevitable tough pattern - Review of January 12 to 15

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孫子的末代傳人 joined discussion · Jan 15 05:47
Waiting anxiously for an inevitable tough pattern - Review of January 12 to 15
The beauty of trading is the freedom to choose; you can suddenly take time off to escape the bustling city and visit friends at Cyberport. This is also one of the reasons why I have always loved 'Investment Dog'.
Waiting anxiously for an inevitable tough pattern - Review of January 12 to 15
Time flies, and the once-naive child grows up overnight. Unconsciously, Jaycus seems to have grown up now. There’s no need to set alarms anymore because on schedule, there will always be a cheerful call, 'Daddy, up up up!'
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The Hang Seng Index is still hovering at high levels for now. Compared to the resistance levels in October and November last time, this time it has shown noticeable resilience. Instead of falling below the key resistance at 27,200, it has continued to rise steadily. In this situation, closely watch for the right timing of a real breakout. $BI#HSI RC2808K.C (68817.HK)$ $BI-HSI @EC2605B.C (23128.HK)$ The defensive position is at 26,500. We need to closely monitor whether the daily chart forms what's known as a 'power to resistance' movement.
Today's most-discussed topic must be $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ : The company is facing an antitrust investigation, meaning that under this sentiment, there will likely be a very negative impact on the stock price. However, due to the substantial short-term drop, based on chart observations and experience, a small rebound might occur before continuing to decline. Pay attention as this drop broke through the weekly chart level uptrend line.
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ As previously mentioned, after breaking through the key level of 152, the stock continued upward. Today, following the announcement about integrating all Alibaba-related systems with AI, the stock pulled back accordingly. It’s expected to consolidate for one or two days; as long as it doesn't fall below 159, there’s still a high chance it will move upward again. $BIALIBA@EC2604A.C (20188.HK)$ The defensive position is at 159. There was some speculation related to this news yesterday in the Alibaba ecosystem, $ALI HEALTH (00241.HK)$ After rising more than 18% in a single day, a pullback occurred. It is expected to enter a narrowing consolidation phase above 6.9. Watch for the probability of moving upward again after consolidation.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It remains in a boring sideways trend, which is essentially a chicken-rib market condition. Even though it hasn’t broken below 35, according to chart patterns, no bottoming signals are evident yet. The semiconductor sector has been stronger than expected. $HUA HONG SEMI (01347.HK)$ Is preparing to challenge the key $100 mark again. In this situation, it seems there may be some unexpected moves ahead. The only downside is that trading volume is not large enough, including the leading stock $SMIC (00981.HK)$ 。
Other tech stocks have generally pulled back, $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It has once again broken below the important 50-day moving average. If it cannot rise above 1805 in the future, be cautious as market concerns over competition from Meituan could lead to a continued decline in the stock price. $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Today, it has once again broken below a major critical level of 625. In this situation, we must wait until it truly closes above 640 with substantial trading volume before there is a chance to challenge $700. $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ The key support level of 79 appears to hold for now. It is expected that after consolidating at this important resistance level, there may be an opportunity to move higher.
The trend for newly listed stocks remains strong. $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$ $ONEROBOTICS (06600.HK)$ It is currently showing a clear and sustained upward trend; however, $MINIMAX-WP (00100.HK)$ More time will be needed for sideways movement during observation.
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Nasdaq futures fell again when they should have been rising, but the futures market has temporarily rebounded. Going forward, if it can successfully break through 26,000 points again, there is a good chance it will move higher.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ It continues to hover at high levels. Although supported by multiple factors, a truly effective breakout has not yet occurred. Expect fluctuations between 458 and 425. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ A potentially valid head and shoulders pattern is gradually forming. The symmetry of this pattern is highly noteworthy. If it eventually breaks below the critical point of 169, be cautious as NVIDIA may officially enter Phase Four. On the other hand, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ The trend is extremely strong. Q4 earnings were simply extraordinary, far exceeding expectations and remarkably impressive. Gross margin significantly exceeded previous guidance, with profits up 41% year-on-year. Under these circumstances, there is a strong likelihood of a continued upward trend. $Intel (INTC.US)$It continues to move upward along the 10-day line, without much additional support.
1. Position and trading volume
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Quickly profit from the bullish position on the index through options; a trade managed to offset the loss from the bearish position on January 2nd.
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The trend is somewhat disappointing. If it truly wants to rise, there should be a strong upward trend appearing at 38.4.
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The Hang Seng Index has not shown the expected one-sided trend, making it very difficult for options trading. Still anticipating a true upward trend.
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Carried out $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ A bearish position has been established, but note that if the Nasdaq really rebounds, there might be an unexpected bounce.
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Conducted $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$A bearish position has been established, but note that if the Nasdaq really rebounds, there might be an unexpected bounce. For now, keep an eye on the market’s reaction to OpenAI losing its leadership position.
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The defensive position for the bullish futures will be set at 26,930.

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$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$ remains the most closely watched tech stock of the year so far, with expectations of it becoming a dark horse in 2026. $J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK)$After the successful share issuance with SF Express, visibility will significantly increase along with synergistic effects.
$CSOP HSCEI Covered Call Active ETF (02802.HK)$Finally, the press release is out, and we're preparing for the first month's dividend payout. The result is a dividend of $0.14 per share; based on calculations, the annualized dividend yield is approximately 19%. The ex-dividend date is January 30th, and the payout date is February 5th. If it truly maintains this dividend record for 12 consecutive months, it may become one of the highest-yielding stocks in the market. Continue using this as one of the key tools for generating cash flow.
2. Reflection
Recently, I've felt that my mindset has been too volatile, feeling uneasy about market fluctuations, and unable to hold positions firmly. After reflecting, the biggest issue might be constant monitoring of the market. Moving forward, I need to maintain some distance from the trading screen and try to use alarms as a tool to monitor the market. Sometimes keeping a distance from the screen can have unexpected benefits, as the flashy visual impact can sometimes affect us too much.
3. Deployment
Semiconductor chip storage remains one of the biggest themes in the market, led by the South Korean giants $CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07747.HK)$ $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07709.HK)$As previously mentioned in the children’s sharing, it continues to rise. Unless there is a clear drop below the 10-day moving average by more than 5%, the likelihood of continued upward movement is very high.
On the other hand, with Hong Kong-style expectations continuing to heat up, long-term government bonds $CSOP FTSE US Treasury 20+ Years Index ETF (03433.HK)$Finally, signs of a potential turning point are emerging. By 2026, if a new Federal Reserve chairman takes office, there may be a series of rapid interest rate cuts. At that time, government bonds should regain favor with investors. Recently, the strongest performer in global stock markets has been Asian markets, and at the same time, the Nikkei is particularly noteworthy. $CSOP Nikkei 225 Index ETF (03153.HK)$. There is a good chance the market will continue to move upwards in the first quarter. $CSOP Nikkei 225 Daily (2x) Leveraged Product (07262.HK)$ , due to the effective formation of a cup-with-handle breakout.
In the Hong Kong stock market, the strong performing sectors should include lithium carbonate batteries, $GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$ Breaking through the key level again, even if there is a pullback in the future, as long as it doesn’t fall below 63, the uptrend will likely continue. $BIGANFE@EC2607A.C (24070.HK)$ 。
Everyone's likes and comments are the driving force behind my continuous analysis. Thank you all.
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孫子的末代傳人
凡戰者，以正合，以奇勝 - 將孫子兵法應用在投資上 孫子大戶頻道創辦人
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