Upcoming expenses.

The cost of this launch was $66 million for three satellites at $22 million each, plus $74 million for the Falcon 9 charter fee, totaling $140 million.

To deploy 45 satellites, only 15 launches are needed, so $2.1 billion would be sufficient. With over $3.5 billion in cash on hand, additional capital raising isn't necessary.

Ultimately, around 250 satellites will be deployed, requiring roughly five times this amount in cash—so they’ll need to secure about $7 billion ($2.1 billion × 5 − $3.5 billion).

Although funding could also be secured through equity issuance or corporate bonds, commercial service can begin once 45 satellites are deployed, which should trigger explosive revenue growth.

Even under conservative consensus estimates, revenue is projected at $850 million in 2027 and $2 billion in 2028, making it seem relatively manageable to secure around $7 billion in cash.

And here’s where it gets exciting: deploying approximately 250 satellites will cost about $10.5 billion, but there won’t be many other significant expenses—meaning most of the revenue will translate into gross profit.

Even if the $10.5 billion in fixed assets is depreciated straight-line over 10 years, annual depreciation expense would only be $1.05 billion. Even with a 5-year depreciation schedule, it would amount to just $2.1 billion per year.

Of course, there will be other operating expenses, but unlike Starlink, sales and marketing costs will be minimal since mobile carriers in each country will handle customer acquisition.

For example, if the company receives $1 per month from 3 billion subscribers, annual revenue would reach $36 billion. Even if annual expenses totaled $3 billion—including $2.1 billion in depreciation and generous spending elsewhere—operating profit would still be $33 billion. Wait, isn’t $33 billion roughly the company’s current market cap?

That implies the company could be valued at roughly 1x P/E today. If investors later assign a P/E ratio of around 20x, the stock price could reasonably increase 20-fold in the future.

By the way, revenue is conservatively estimated at $36 billion. In reality, new users—such as those in 'dead zones'—can be expected, and when you factor in government and infrastructure demand, the potential is limitless. Also, I think we could charge new users in dead zones more than just $1 per month—even offering it at one-third of Starlink’s price would still be highly profitable.

$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$

The issue is that current production stands at three units per month—it would take over six years to produce 250 units. We hope to see an acceleration in the production pace.

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