How to value Telsa's robotics business?
Tesla unveiled "Optimus Gen 2" yesterday, truly amazing, again. I personally believe that Tesla's expertise in AI, batteries, and electric motors will give them a first-mover advantage, allowing them to capture a significant share of the humanoid robot market eventually.
●Walk at a pace that is 30% faster, 10 kg lighter
●Faster, brand-new hands with 11-DoF (degree of freedom), have tactile sensing on fingers
●Improved balance, can even do squats
●In-house actuators and sensors, an actuated neck with 2-DoF etc.
Four days ago, Tesla blogger Herber Tong compared Optimus with Figure, another humanoid robot company, with the help of NASA engineer Scott Walter. They discussed the underlying principles, business models, cost structures, market spaces, and the importance of multimodal AI for robots in depth, providing a lot of valuable insights. As a "rival" company, Walter provided more information compared to Optimus.
Key points:
●AI are more important than physical capabilities, and multimodal large models will be the true "CPU" of humanoid robots. In turn, robots will become an important extension of multimodal models for understanding the world.
●"Humanoid" is the foundation of universality, defining a computing platform.
●Price depends on volume, meaning large-scale low-cost manufacturing capabilities, in which no one can rival Tesla.
●Almost all cost items can be reduced through mass production, and the only rigid cost is the computing chip. However, Tesla's Dojo happens to be much cheaper.
The market size of humanoid robots involves three factors: quantity, price, and functionality, and these three factors are interdependent. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate accurately and current estimates are mostly speculative. Below are two analyses from X users for reference.
The first is from user @CernBasher, who believes that humanoid robots can be offered as Robotics as a Service (RaaS). Each robot can generate an annual revenue of $14,400, with a net profit of nearly $6,000 per year. If there are 10 million robots in operation, given 30x PE, could contribute a market value of $1.7 trillion. (assuming 2028-2030)
The second from @libetlibertatem, assuming gross margin of 93% for the rental of the robots, which is much more aggressive than the first analysis.
Weak global demand for electric vehicles, intense competition in China, uncertainty surrounding FSD penetration rates and pricing etc.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Detachment-DeltaOP : With the release of Mobile ALOHA, the seemingly far ahead Tesla robot suddenly appears so ordinary.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$