Tariff Policy Shifts Again – How Will Bitcoin React?

The direction of tariff policy is becoming increasingly uncertain: On May 28 (ET), a U.S. federal court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing blanket tariffs on countries exporting more to the U.S. than importing.

Today, let’s dive into how this development might impact $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ and how investors can position ahead of time.

Short-Term Boost: Improved Risk Sentiment, Capital May Flow to Bitcoin

The blocked tariff policy reduces the risk of escalating global trade conflicts, potentially reviving market risk appetite. For example, after the news broke, U.S. stock indices rose in pre-market trading. As a high-risk asset, Bitcoin typically benefits from capital inflows when global uncertainty declines.

Long-Term Impact: Policy Uncertainty Remains, Bitcoin Could Become a Hedge

The political battle over tariffs is far from over—Trump may seek alternative measures (e.g., congressional legislation or targeted tariffs) to push trade barriers. Market volatility could rise again, potentially repricing Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal and driving prices higher.

With policy and information largely clarified, how might Bitcoin’s price evolve?

– Short-term (1-4 weeks): Neutral to slightly bullish, but watch for capital rotation

If markets interpret this as "global trade risks easing," Bitcoin may rally alongside risk assets (e.g., U.S. stocks). However, if equities (especially tech) rebound sharply, some capital may temporarily exit crypto, pressuring Bitcoin.

◦ If Trump retaliates (e.g., via executive orders or new tariff bills), markets may return to risk-off mode, benefiting Bitcoin.

◦ If the Fed turns dovish: Blocked tariffs may ease inflation pressure. Rate-cut signals could ignite a new Bitcoin bull run.

– Mid-term (1-3 months): Focus on Fed policy and political moves

◦ If Trump retaliates with fresh tariffs via executive action or Congress, markets may swing back into risk-off mode—bullish for Bitcoin as a volatility hedge.

◦ If the Fed turns dovish, possibly due to reduced inflation pressure from the tariff block, that could spark a fresh crypto bull run.

Investment Strategy:

Personally, I’d consider two approaches:

1. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): Institutions project Bitcoin at $150K–200K this year; I believe $130K is achievable. Thus, gradual DCA remains viable.

2. Hedging: To mitigate portfolio volatility, allocate 1/3 of Bitcoin exposure to inverse ETFs like $CSOP Bitcoin Futures Daily (-1x) Inverse Product (07376.HK)$ My core position remains long-term bullish.

That’s my take. Got a different view? Drop your thoughts in the comments—open to a friendly debate.

87K Views