Strategic Options Trading Ahead of NVIDIA’s GTC 2025!
Given the extensive updates and technological innovations expected at NVIDIA's GTC 2025, coupled with historical data suggesting a high likelihood of $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$'s stock price increasing during such events, a strategic approach to options trading can be particularly beneficial. Here's an integrated strategy that leverages both the expected technological announcements and historical stock performance.
Introduction
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$'s premier event, GTC 2025, is poised to significantly impact the tech and financial markets next week. Historically, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ has shown an 87.5% probability of rising during the event, with price changes ranging between -0.59% and 21.80%. This trend suggests a strong potential for $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ to continue its upward trajectory, especially with the anticipated showcase of groundbreaking technologies like the GB300 GPU, CPO switches, and NVL288 systems.
Options Trading Strategies
Reflecting the historical trend of stock price increases around the GTC events, and considering the significant innovations like the GB300 which promises a 50% increase in FLOPS (Floating point operations per second) compared to its predecessor, buying call options remains a viable strategy. The introduction of new products and enhancements in data center capacities (like the increase from 66kW to 90kW power racks) are expected to drive investor optimism.
Strategy Tip - Target call options to capitalize on continued growth momentum from product roll-outs and market adoption.
Despite a downward trend in $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$'s stock over the last two weeks, a rebound occurred following the release of the latest CPI data. Focusing on the two-week period post-GTC, market data reveals that the open interest of options is predominantly concentrated in the $120-$130 price range. With a Put/Call Ratio around 1, the holding volume of OTM calls is noticeably high, indicating an overall market leaning towards bullish sentiment. From the holding volumes, the upward pressure points are estimated to be around $120, $122, $124, and $130.
Looking at the options expiring next week, moomoo’s Strategy Builder analysis suggests that purchasing calls with a strike price of $125 may be apt.
However, to ensure a margin of error, focusing on options expiring on March 28 might be more prudent. For these, moomoo’s Strategy Builder recommends buying calls with a strike price of $126.
Selling puts can generate premium income for investors with a more conservative outlook who expect the stock not to fall. Given the robust technology pipeline and enhancements such as the PTFE CCL (polytetrafluoroethylene Copper Clad Laminate) backplane solutions for NVL288, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is likely to maintain or increase its value, making this an attractive strategy.
Given the potential for significant market reaction to $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$'s new technological disclosures and product updates, a long straddle or strangle can be advantageous. This strategy is particularly pertinent due to the unpredictable magnitude of stock movement these innovations might trigger, such as the advancements in HVDC (high-voltage direct current) power solutions and supercapacitors, which could redefine power supply standards in data centers.
Strategy Tip - Implement these strategies just before the event to exploit the elevated volatility. Ensure the strike prices reflect a balanced risk-reward ratio considering the potential significant announcements.
Sell Covered Call Options
If holding shares of $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and expecting minimal rise or slight decline post-GTC due to market saturation or competitive dynamics, selling covered calls could yield additional income. This strategy is beneficial in scenarios where the market has potentially overestimated the impact of new announcements.
Any signals from the options market?
A clearer picture emerges when examining the options market for signals, particularly focusing on Unusual Activity and excluding this week's expiring options. By disregarding Normal orders and concentrating solely on Sweep, Cross, and Floor orders, it's evident that the market is still pricing in a modest rebound or short-term volatility.
Considering all orders, it appears that today, some investors have begun shifting towards a more optimistic outlook. This suggests a cautious but growing confidence in potential upward movements in the market.
Monitoring and Adjustment Post-GTC
Post-event, monitoring the adoption and industry response to NVIDIA’s newly introduced technologies will be crucial. Adjustments in options strategies might be necessary based on real-world integration and competitor reactions, especially in the high-stakes areas of cloud infrastructure and advanced computing solutions.
$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)$ $Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVDS.US)$ $T-Rex 2X Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF (NVDX.US)$ $T-Rex 2X Inverse NVDA Daily Target ETF (NVDQ.US)$ $Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (NVDU.US)$ $YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF (SPXL.US)$ $Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares ETF (SPXS.US)$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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BelleWeather : Careful, IV is high on contracts. Synthetics are more conservative if bullish, and allow for collection of premium.
Keiith : Selling cash-secured puts is ‘conservative,’ but NVDA’s already up 200%+ YTD! If the stock crashes post-GTC, won’t put sellers get obliterated?
JoanFishers : What if 2025 breaks the streak because of macro factors like high rates?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
squirrel in my pants OP BelleWeather : Agree. The mkt sentiment is quite lower here, and the Fear & Greed Index has been 15 (extreme fear). I personally hold a pessimistic view![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
squirrel in my pants OP JoanFishers : If the EFFR rate cannot be lowered, I am afraid there will be a "Trumpsession"
104437159 : The bubble has burst, and prices have returned to normal levels.
104627087 : There are too many uncertainties in the market.
104065051 :
ABDUL RAZAK BIN MAT : yes
104183115 : i don,t know, i ned to try leandning this trading online, and i hope you cant tiss me, tq..
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