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🔥 SPY & QQQ Week 41 | My Weekly Setup You’ve Been Waiting For | Long Call or Bull Call Spread?

Options Hunter joined discussion · Oct 6 17:43

🔥 SPY & QQQ Week 41 | My Weekly Setup You’ve Been Waiting For | Long Call or Bull Call Spread?

Hey Traders, it’s Monday, and we’re diving into Week 41! Let’s recap last week’s action, reflect on my previous outlook, and set the stage for what’s ahead. Get ready—it’s time to plan those trades!

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Week 40 Recap: Bullish Outlook Aligned

Last week, I noted a 70% bullish probability for Week 40, and the market delivered! The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ rose 1.12%, and the $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ gained 1.21%, hitting record highs despite a government shutdown. Hope you capitalized on that move!

Previous Post: 📊+22.30% Up SPY CALL Options | Triple Witching Recap & Week 39-42 Playbook | Riding SPY Waves with S

Source: FedWatch - CME Group

Here’s a recap of last week’s action:

– Major Indices: The S&P 500 (+1.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.1%), and Russell 2000 (+1.7%) all soared to new highs, brushing off the shutdown.

– Economic Data: A mixed bag with ADP Employment Change at -32K (vs. 40K expected) and job openings rising to 7.227M in August. The September Employment Situation Report was delayed due to the shutdown.

– Fed Outlook: Dovish Fed signals and a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October (84% for December, per CME FedWatch) boosted market confidence.

Sector Performance: Distinct trends emerged across sectors.

– Health care (+6.8%) outperformed, driven by $Pfizer (PFE.US)$ (TrumpRx initiative) and $Humana (HUM.US)$ (positive Medicare Advantage guidance).

– Information technology (+2.3%) advanced, led by chipmakers and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$’s record-setting performance.

– Utilities (+2.4%) showed resilience.

– Energy (-3.4%) declined due to OPEC+ production expectations.

– Consumer discretionary (-0.8%) underperformed, despite early support from $Tesla (TSLA.US)$.

The macroeconomic environment—marked by a dovish Fed outlook, strength in technology and health care, and weakness in energy and consumer discretionary—drove varied stock performance. Large-cap stocks generally outperformed, with $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ (+5.29%), $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ (+3.27%), and $Intel (INTC.US)$ (+3.75%) leading, fueled by AI and growth momentum, alongside $Apple (AAPL.US)$ (+1.00%). However, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ (-0.12%), $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ (-2.40%), and $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ (-2.53%) posted losses, warranting caution. Small caps, such as $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$ (-9.79%) and $Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US)$ (-7.95%), faced challenges due to economic uncertainty and interest rate sensitivity. With anticipated rate cuts, large caps are likely to maintain their advantage into earnings season, while small caps may encounter further headwinds if the shutdown persists or economic data weakens.

Source:

TrumpRx website 2025: direct-to-consumer prescription drug platform and Pfizer discount deal explain

Why Is Humana (HUM) Stock Soaring Today

OPEC+ opts for modest oil output hike as supply glut fears mount

Week 41 Outlook: Cautiously Bullish

Sources: TradingView — Track All Markets

We’re in Week 41 (October 6–10), with seasonality showing a 70% bullish probability and an average gain of 1.64%. But a 30% bearish risk averaging a 2.15% drop makes this a tricky week. Risk-reward isn’t ideal, so I’m cautiously bullish, keeping sizes tight and risk management dialed in.

Technical Analysis

SPY hit a new high of 672.68 in Week 40, with a swing low at 654.30. Using Fibonacci retracement, I’m eyeing the 0.50 (663.54) to 0.618 (665.70) Fib levels as key support zones. I’ll watch this range closely for entries or reversal signals. A drop below 663.54 could signal caution, while holding above 665.70 keeps the bulls in charge.

Options Strategies Idea

For this week’s trades, I’m considering options with expirations aligned with the weekly seasonality, expiring on October 10, 2025, to target short-term moves, though you guys can seeking more buffer may opt for longer expirations. I’m targeting a delta of 30-40 to balance maximum loss and risk per trade, aligning with my risk management framework.

Long Call:

Long - SPY 251010 673.00C

💰 Max Profit: ~ Unlimited

❌ Max Loss: ~ $210.00

– Pros: Offers unlimited upside potential if the market rallies strongly.

– Cons: Vulnerable to time decay and volatility contraction.

Bull Call Spread:

Long - SPY 251010 673.00C

Short - SPY 251010 677.00C

💰 Max Profit: ~ $274

❌ Max Loss: ~ $126

– Pros: Limits maximum loss while capturing directional upside.

– Cons: Caps potential profits if the market moves sharply higher.

Both strategies hinge on balancing risk and reward. For traders aiming to enter without waiting for a retracement but preferring lower risk, a Bull Call Spread offers a lower max loss. If you’re willing to accept higher risk for greater upside, a Long Call may be preferable.

Alternatively, for those with a bearish outlook, you can also consider a Long Put, Bear Put Spread, or Bear Call Spread to capitalize on potential downside. Ultimately, your choice depends on your risk tolerance and market outlook.

So this is my framework for the week—stay disciplined, as market dynamics can shift quickly.

What are your thoughts? Are you anticipating a bullish continuation or a potential pullback? Share your insights below—I value the community’s perspectives!

Wishing you a successful trading week!

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for tracking my trades and strategies for personal review. Not investment advice — always do your own research and ensure it fits your risk tolerance.

#OptionsTrading #SPY #QQQ #Seasonality #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #Stocks #OptionsHunter #WeeklyOptionIdeas

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