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📊SPY & QQQ October 2025 Market Outlook | Government Shut Down Impact & ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | Buy the Dip with Single Leg Options Playbook? 📈

Options Hunter joined discussion · Oct 1 18:06

📊SPY & QQQ October 2025 Market Outlook | Government Shut Down Impact & ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | Buy the Dip with Single Leg Options Playbook? 📈

Hey traders, we are entering the new trading month of October 2025. Let’s break down this week’s big picture → market impact → simple options strategy to potentially buy the dip!

🔎 October 2025 Must See Financial Events - the Big Picture that can potentially impact $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ :

This Week's Key News:

October Must See Financial Events:

October 2025 All Time High Record

The S&P 500 just crossed above 6,700 for the first time, its 7th 100-point milestone of the year. Including dividends, the index has now more than quadrupled over the last decade.

October 2025 Seasonality

S&P - More bullish

QQQ - More bullish

Source: Tradingview.com

BTC - Risk on for October month with Bitcoin pump?

October 2025 Volatility

📰 Recent Macro Drivers: Government Shutdown & Jobs Report

Source: Seasonax.com

– Shutdown headlines often cause short-term fear → stocks dip, then recover once uncertainty clears. Read more about detailed data in this report: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/lets-talk-about-a-government-shutdown/

Source: Seasonax.com

◦ Strong report (many jobs added) → Fed may keep rates high → short-term pressure on stocks.

◦ Weak report (fewer jobs added) → Fed may ease later → potential rebound in tech and growth sectors.

– ADP Jobs Report (jobs growth preview):

📈 Market Impact: SPY & QQQ

– SPY & QQQ often fall on bad macro news, but history shows bounce potential once the dust settles.

– Tech-heavy QQQ reacts more strongly, especially for big names of the Magnificent 7 like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , $Tesla (TSLA.US)$, $Amazon (AMZN.US)$. Which stock would you bet in following months?

– Other actively traded and small cap stocks like $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ , $Intel (INTC.US)$ , $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ , $CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)$ , $Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US)$ may swing even more from the lows to the highs.

⚙️ Single Legged Options Playbook

Premarket dip for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ on daily and 1 hour chart:

📌 Entry Plan:

– Wait for SPY/QQQ to dip 0.5–1% into a key support zone (650-680 for SPY and 580-590 for QQQ and on daily chart around 1st day, 3rd day or 7th day after government shutdown day

– Look for signs of rebound (buyers stepping in, reversal candles, volume pickup).

– Enter bullish options once rebound starts — don’t chase while still falling.

– Depending on VIX (the market fear index), if its below 20, I favour buying call whereas if its above 20, I favour selling put. Currently, the VIX is at 16.98.

– In recent months, I tend to buy options more than i sell options to capitalise on the rising volatility since VIX is low. I like to use 1-10 dte SPX strategy instead of my regular 0dte strategy because I want to have a lower drawdown risk by adding less correlated trades to my portfolio, which yielded positive results last month: https://www.moomoo.com/community/feed/18-16-return-1-10-25-monthly-review-options-small-115296766918662?futusource=nnq_followtab_list&feed_source=12

👉 Strategy 1: Buy Call Option (Long Call)

Best for small accounts with limited capital to buy volatility and capture upside move

Expiration Date: 28 November 2025 (58 DTE) for a 30-day trading timeframe

Long - SPY 251128 665.00C or ATM when price retrace

💰 Max Profit: ~ Unlimited❌ Max Loss: ~ $1736.50

✅ Pro: Cheap way to play upside; risk capped at the premium.

❌ Con: Option loses value if rebound is slow (time decay).

💡 Adjustment for Small Accounts (< US$1k):

– Sell a higher strike call against your long call → this creates a Bull Call Spread.

– Benefit: Lowers entry cost and reduces risk.

– Trade-off: Your profit is capped at the higher strike.

👉 Strategy 2: Sell Put Option (Short Put)

Works better if you have margin and want income. And intend to sell put to capture premium when volatility increases as price fall.

Expiration Date: 31 October 2025 (30 DTE) for a 30-day trading timeframe

Short - SPY 251031 650.00P

💰 Max Profit: ~ Unlimited❌ Max Loss: ~ $64471.50 (prepared to be assigned the 100 shares or set a cut loss at 50% of credit received for small account)

✅ Pro: Earn premium if SPY/QQQ stays flat or goes up after the dip.

❌ Con: Larger downside if market keeps falling — may need to buy shares at strike price.

P/S: Take a look at my step-by-step options playbook guide (aka options cheatsheets), where I walk you through how to set up each option strategy with clear instructions: moomoo.com/comm...

🔑 Key Takeaways

– Use macro events (shutdown + jobs) as catalysts.

– Ideal entry = buy on dip, enter on rebound at support.

– Buy Call = small cost, defined risk.

– Sell Put = higher income chance, but needs more margin and risk tolerance.

👉 Your Turn: If SPY/QQQ drop 1% into support this week, would you buy calls for quick upside or sell puts for steady income?

⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational discussion only. Not investment advice. Always manage risk.

#OptionsTrading #SPY #QQQ #NVDA #TSLA #AMZN #ORCL #INTC #PLTR #CRWD #OPEN #MarketDipBuy #OptionsStrategy #BuyCall #SellPut #CashSecurePut

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