SpaceX’s Next Share Unlock Looms: Is $125 at Risk? | Smart Money Option

By Chancy

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ ’s first employee share unlock didn’t trigger the wave of selling investors had feared. Instead, SPCX rebounded sharply, rising as much as 35% over five trading days and reclaiming its $135 IPO price.

But with the next unlock approaching, the options market is sending a more cautious signal. SPCX slipped back toward $137 on Friday, while a large long-dated options trade suggested some big money may be reassessing the risk-reward after the rally.

10,000-Contract Bearish Risk Reversal

At 11:32 a.m. Friday, two large SPCX options trades expiring Jan. 21, 2028 hit the tape at the same time:

– 10,000 $125 Puts were bought for about $32.2 million in premium.

– 10,000 $185 Calls were sold for about $31.2 million in premium.

The trades had the same timestamp, size and expiration date, and both were marked Open, Cross and Multi-Leg, strongly suggesting they were part of the same strategy.

The two legs involved more than $63 million in total premium, but the Call sale covered almost the entire cost of the Puts, leaving the trade with a net debit of only about $1 million.

Assuming there is no underlying stock position, this is a classic bearish risk reversal: buying downside exposure while financing it by selling upside exposure.

SPCX was trading around $137 when the trade was placed. The $125 Put was about 9% below the stock price, while the $185 Call was roughly 35% above it. With a net cost of about $1 per share, the position has a breakeven at roughly $124 at expiration.

If SPCX finishes between $125 and $185, both options expire worthless and the trader loses only the initial $1 million. Below roughly $124, profits begin to build as the stock falls.

In simple terms: sideways means a small loss, a sharp drop can produce a large gain, while a rally above $185 creates growing losses.

The trader also doesn’t have to wait until 2028. A sharp near-term decline could lift the value of the $125 Put while reducing the value of the $185 Call, allowing the position to benefit well before expiration.

Click here to view SPCX's options

A Week Ago, Smart Money Was Buying the $185 Call

What makes the trade more interesting is how sharply it contrasts with a large order seen just a week ago.

On the day of the first employee share unlock, SPCX saw a 2028 bullish risk reversal involving the purchase of 2,500 $185 Calls and the sale of 2,500 $75 Puts, signaling a strong long-term bullish view.

SpaceX's First Lock-Up Ends: Why Is Smart Money Bullish? | Smart Money Option

Just one week later, the same Jan. 21, 2028 $185 Call showed up again — but on the opposite side:

Last week: Buy $185 Call, betting on long-term upside.

This week: Sell $185 Call and buy $125 Put, shifting toward downside protection or a bearish bet.

There is no way to know whether the two trades came from the same institution, so this shouldn’t be read as one investor suddenly flipping bearish. But after SPCX’s sharp rebound, large options flows are clearly showing more disagreement over the stock’s risk-reward.

Why Bet on Downside Ahead of the Next Unlock?

The timing also stands out.

The first share unlock failed to trigger the selling pressure many investors had expected, and SPCX rallied instead. But the unlock story isn’t over, with another batch of shares set to become eligible for trading on Aug. 20, potentially bringing another round of volatility.

That makes the choice of the $125 Put particularly notable. The strike was only about 9% below SPCX when the trade was placed, meaning the trader is protecting against — or betting on — downside that isn’t far from the current price.

This doesn’t prove SPCX is about to break below $125. But the structure clearly benefits from a sharp decline, raising the possibility that the trade is positioning for renewed downside volatility around the next unlock.

What Is Smart Money Signaling?

There are still two possible interpretations. If the trader owns the underlying shares, this could be a protective collar. Without a stock position, it is a clear bearish risk reversal.

Either way, the positioning is notably more cautious than it was a week ago. Last week, big money was buying the $185 Call and selling the $75 Put. This week, the flow flipped to buying the $125 Put and selling the $185 Call.

That makes $125 the key downside level to watch. With another share unlock approaching, is this simply cheap protection after a 35% rally — or is Smart Money positioning for the next leg lower?

Click here for more unusual options activities.

Disclaimer: Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all customers. It is important that investors read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before engaging in any options trading strategies. Opening new options positions close to or on their expiration date comes with substantial risk of losses for reasons that include potential volatility of the underlying security and limited time to expiration. Options transactions are often complex and may involve the potential of losing the entire investment in a relatively short period. Certain complex option strategies carry additional risk, including potential losses that may exceed the original investment amount. If applicable, supporting documentation for any claims will be furnished upon request.

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