Opportunities and Risks for SpaceX’s Listing in June – Recap for June 5–11
It was our 16th anniversary of meeting my wife—coinciding with days of heavy rain, and finally there was no long queue outside the restaurant, allowing us to try this place hailed as the pinnacle of Thai boat noodles. Final verdict: truly lives up to its reputation.
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As previously emphasized, extreme caution is warranted regarding Hong Kong market movements in June. This year, there's a very high likelihood we'll see the long-discussed seasonal pattern of 'Poor May, Dreadful June, and Recovery in July.' Although less than two weeks into June, the market trend has indeed been deeply discouraging. However, historical data shows that the more dire June becomes, the stronger the rebound tends to be in July. Hence, the most important trading mantra remains: 'Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.'
If it breaks below 24,200 again, there is a high likelihood of continued downside.$UB#HSI RP2812I.P (53747.HK)$ The defensive level is at 24,500; major support below lies at 23,800. Conversely, if it can successfully reclaim 24,600 or higher again, a rebound becomes possible.$UB#HSI RC2807C.C (57289.HK)$ The defensive level is at 24,380; major resistance above is at 24,880.
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$BABA-W (09988.HK)$ During Hong Kong trading hours, there was a sharp drop that broke directly below 110. The overall trend remains clearly bearish, with the key bullish/bearish pivot point above at 120. Although there was noticeable support during US market hours overnight, the broader trend continues to show persistent declines, including a breakdown on the weekly chart. Two major weekly support levels lie at 105 and 96, respectively.
$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ It is in a clear downtrend where even positive news fails to trigger a rebound—a very strong bearish trend that is concerning. However, the stock appears poised for an accelerating decline, which could finally lead to a minor short-term bounce.
$TENCENT (00700.HK)$ Compared to other tech stocks, its trend has already moderated somewhat. As long as it remains within the 440–475 range before July, after more than two weeks of sideways consolidation, it may rise in July, potentially catalyzed by recent signs that the gaming sector could be bottoming out and turning upward.
$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Following endorsement from Duan Yongping, a solid bottom has clearly formed. Over the weekend, I visited one of their Causeway Bay stores and found it packed with customers, with strong fan support for the new product line. Shoppers were shaking blind boxes next to their ears to guess the contents, and many bought 12 boxes at once. If the stock can close firmly above 186 on any given day, it will likely officially enter the first phase of accumulation.
$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ The key support level below is at 75. Going forward, the stock must trade sideways for an extended period to absorb selling pressure. Due to being summoned again by regulators, the share price remains under pressure. It must stay above 75 for at least two weeks, followed by closing above 90 for two to three consecutive days, to have a real chance of reversing its weakness.
$SMIC (00981.HK)$ It has broken below the critical level of $80 again, forming a pattern highly resembling a double top. Unless significant positive catalysts emerge soon, the stock is likely to remain prone to declines and resistant to rallies. Moreover, compared to other domestic substitution plays, its valuation is relatively high on fundamentals.
AI-related stocks continue to diverge, particularly large language models (LLMs).$MINIMAX-W (00100.HK)$$KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$ Continues to decline, in contrast to PCB material suppliers, which are extremely scarce.$KB LAMINATES (01888.HK)$ are still exhibiting strong dominant-stock price action.
$HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)$ After a series of declines, there's a high probability of a rebound in the next couple of days, though significant resistance lies ahead at 143.5. Catalysts currently appear unfavorable, a point most investors have clearly understood over the past two weeks.$AIA (01299.HK)$ The most affected assets saw a rebound yesterday, but a downtrend has already formed, and the likelihood of further declines after this rebound remains very high.
Regarding US stocks$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ There is a high chance that the initial pullback from June to July has now been completed.$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures (SEP6) (NQmain.US)$ A sharp rebound occurred immediately from the key support level at 28,200, driven by Trump once again 'leveraging' TACO trades. Market sources note that during his previous term, Trump traded extremely frequently—often exceeding 15 trades per day, even more active than typical day traders. Therefore, retail investors should not base market decisions solely on news headlines he generates; chart-based evidence offers relatively more objective and reliable signals.
Since April, the current upward trend in US equities has been exceptionally strong.$Micron Technology (MU.US)$$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ Once scarcity emerges in memory chip-related stocks, capital inflows become extremely intense. Each time, funds step in near major support levels to prop up prices. Both stocks find strong support at their 20-day moving averages, and this pattern appears poised to continue breaking new highs.
$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ Hey, tonight’s listing has become a global talking point, with Wall Street sharply divided: extremely bullish investors view this as an early-stage opportunity similar to$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ the 2009 IPO wave, while pessimists argue the current valuation is simply too expensive. Retail subscription amounts have already reached $100 billion—will this largest IPO in history drain market liquidity or fuel further irrational exuberance? We’ll soon find out. However, there’s a very high likelihood of a significant gap-up at open, and whether it continues higher (gap-up and go) or reverses lower (gap-up and drop) will be the key indicator for its price direction over the next month.
The semiconductor sector continues to show strong momentum in the market,$Intel (INTC.US)$ another setup has emerged. Research analysis indicates that CPUs will not only avoid obsolescence but will also see their share relative to GPUs rise to a one-to-one ratio.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Under these circumstances, Intel's stock remains undervalued even at its current elevated price level.$Oracle (ORCL.US)$ The recent decline has triggered market skepticism about AI hype, primarily due to net profits falling short of expectations and the need for substantial financing, which has raised concerns about free cash flow. This stands in stark contrast to the scarcity and robustness of memory chips. Of course, it’s not just memory chips showing strength—optical communication stocks are also rallying strongly, potentially driven by breakthroughs in CPU technology.$Marvell Technology (MRVL.US)$ 。
1. Position holding and trading volume
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Executed a flawless trade on Nasdaq index futures, successfully waiting for a rebound to 29,500 on Monday before initiating a short position, then gradually closing the position near the 28,200–28,500 range. The rationale is that 28,200 represents a critical support level.
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Immediately after yesterday’s release of PPI and initial jobless claims data, I took a position in the 10-year Treasury note, as the data clearly indicates a very high likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates this year. This creates a clear potential for a rebound in the 10-year Treasury I’ve been holding. For now, I’ll move my stop-loss to breakeven.
I believe yesterday’s rally in US equities will lead to a rebound in Asia-Pacific semiconductor stocks, and I will continue to maintain significant exposure$EFund A SEMICON ETF (03486.HK)$ as a key vehicle for semiconductor exposure outside of US equities. Moreover, Asia-Pacific semiconductor companies now wield substantial influence across the entire semiconductor supply chain and have become indispensable to it. Furthermore,$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$$Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ [a major player] announced plans to procure chips from Samsung Electronics of Korea—a development that will serve as a significant catalyst for the Asia-Pacific semiconductor sector.
If there are no rate hikes this year, high-yield ETFs will become a market focal point.$E FUND (HK) MSCI Asia Pacific Select High Dividend Index ETF (03483.HK)$ High-yield ETFs remain one of the key defensive tools I use for downside protection.
2. Reflection
"Trends don’t form in a day, so they won’t end in a day either." This adage is absolutely the core principle of momentum trading. Since a trend results from sustained accumulation by large institutional players and major investors, we must also understand that it takes time for them to distribute their positions at the top before truly realizing profits. The interim ups and downs are merely short-term volatility caused by speculative capital. It’s essential to repeatedly and carefully assess whether the underlying trend of each holding remains intact.
3. Deployment
Regarding Hong Kong stocks, since the market has already broken below its 200-day moving average, I personally would consider re-entering only when prices rebound toward the 24,800 level. This is because recent market sentiment has been weak and turned notably pessimistic. However, a very significant development has recently emerged:$HKEX (00388.HK)$ The Hong Kong Exchange has launched a newly developed flagship index—the HK Tech 100 Index. This marks the first time the Hong Kong Exchange has compiled its own index. The index tracks over 100 of the largest Hong Kong-listed companies with strong exposure to technology-related themes. To qualify, constituents must meet four key criteria: first, they must be eligible for Stock Connect; second, they must align with one of six major tech innovation themes—artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and autonomous driving, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, robotics, information technology, and the internet. Although there are basic requirements regarding market capitalization and a minimum listing duration of six months, a fast-track inclusion mechanism exists. The index will undergo semi-annual reviews, and most notably, it adopts a dynamic weighting methodology inspired by the Nasdaq and S&P indices that systematically trims underperformers and reinforces leaders. This is undoubtedly a major milestone for the Hong Kong market. According to reports, iShares (E Fund) has successfully partnered with the Hong Kong Exchange to launch an ETF tracking this new index, which is expected to offer greater representativeness and relevance compared to the traditional Hang Seng Tech Index.
Since Q4 last year, the Hang Seng Index has significantly underperformed global markets, primarily due to its lack of exposure to leading semiconductor and AI-related blue-chip stocks. With the Hong Kong Exchange now launching its own index—a first-of-its-kind initiative—it is hoped that foreign and Stock Connect capital will finally take renewed interest.
On the U.S. equity side, the index has already bounced off a major support level, suggesting that AI hardware and semiconductor-related sectors—which were previously relatively undervalued—are likely to see upward momentum next. Keep a close watch on$Intel (INTC.US)$and$Amkor Technology (AMKR.US)$ , which could become a missing piece of the puzzle.
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