Gold rebounds strongly: can dual support from war and inflation persist?

1. Key Levels & Breakdowns
– Major Resistance (Ceiling): $119 → Aggressive selling triggered distribution (momentum shift).
– First Breakdown: $90 (decision zone) → Loss confirmed buyers’ weakness; path opened for further downside.
– Second Breakdown: $74 → Reinforced bearish narrative; sustained selling pressure validated.
Current Focus: Price action below former support ($74). Watch for:
✅ Acceptance (lower lows = continuation risk)
✅ Base formation (higher lows = potential correction)
2. Technical Indicators: Where to Start?
For new traders, prioritize structure > indicators. But if using tools:
– RSI (Momentum): Currently oversold (<30), but bearish trend intact until price reclaims $74.
– MACD (Trend): Bearish crossover below zero ** → Selling pressure dominant.
– MA (Trend): 50-day MA ($92) acting as dynamic resistance; price below = downtrend.
Order of priority:
1. Price structure (breakdowns/support)
2. Momentum (RSI)
3. Trend confirmation (MACD/MA)
3. Market Phase: Trend vs. Range?
– Current state: Strong downtrend (lower highs + lower lows).
– No oscillation yet → Until price holds above $74, assume trend continuation.
Key reversal signal: Bullish engulfing candle above $74 + RSI divergence.
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