Santa Rally? Oracle Rebounds, Tesla Eyes 500, DJT Goes Parabolic — Where the Money Is Rotating Into Year-End?
With Micron’s earnings print (a beat that sparked a sharp rally), the U.S. CPI release (a downside miss), and the Bank of Japan’s rate hike (dovish hike![]()
v.s. FED's hawkish cut), the final “super week” of 2025 is finally behind us. And from yesterday’s session and this morning’s pre-market action view, the tech complex is showing early signs of clawing its way out of the hole.
That shift has been especially visible after Trump’s “Genesis plan” explicitly called out a list of companies — including Oracle and CoreWeave. These two AI compute names, long weighed down by debt overhang concerns, finally put up a fairly impressive overnight rebound.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of all: the 2025 Mag-7 rotation ultimately landed on Tesla. With a stack of tailwinds behind this “super-monster” stock, whether it can break through 500 in the remaining trading days of the year has become the market’s new focal point.
And then there’s the president’s “white-glove” vehicle — DJT — where reports of a proposed acquisition of fusion startup TAE sent the stock surging 42%. That move also seems to be telling investors something important: hot money hasn’t “given up” on this market — it’s simply been waiting for the next obvious target. That said, the kind of blurred lines between politics and business implied by this backdrop is rare in U.S. history — you could count comparable examples on one hand.
In any case, taken together, the tape is flashing a simple message: the Santa Rally may not be dead after all. And that gives us a few actionable clues for positioning into the final week.
(1) Betting on Tesla’s upside continuation
If Tesla clears 500, everyone’s happy. If it doesn’t, it probably still won’t collapse. Rather than betting on a breakout over the next few days, it may make more sense to bet — over a longer window — that the downside is limited. In that framework, the old rule still holds: short puts are often a better expression than long calls.
Also, Tesla’s IV has “miraculously” rebounded back above 60, which gives the short side more room to harvest time decay.
Bottom line: if you believe Tesla won’t break below 300 over the next few months (350 works too — that psychological line is personal), then selling a 4–6 month put using that “won’t-break” level as your strike lets you sit through Christmas and New Year’s comfortably — without worrying about a post-holiday “hangover tape” selloff (like early 2024).
(2) Can DJT keep ripping higher?
This is the exact opposite setup from Tesla. If you want to express a bullish view on DJT, I do not recommend short puts — long calls make more sense.
The logic is simple: after a bottoming bounce, if DJT goes parabolic, the upside headroom can be huge. A short put is a capped-upside structure that can end up limiting your payoff in a momentum squeeze.
But because DJT’s IV is elevated, to reduce the time-value you’re paying, in-the-money calls are preferable. You can anchor the strike around the prior base (pre-rally lows). And avoid going too short-dated — 1–2 months is more reasonable.
(3) Oracle and Broadcom — a “bottom bounce”
I’ve covered this point in my earlier piece : Oracle Up 15% From Bottom: Is the Selloff Over? — feel free to refer back if you’re interested.
(4) Index 0DTE options
Please refer to my previous article. Santa Rally or Not? A Clean 0DTE Setup Into Year-End
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Maniac Fool : BOJ is rate hike. not cut lol
75098506 : Fake CPI is what you have the 90% of Americans are paying a lot more because of tariffs and spending less not more..Prices at Dollar Tree are up 50–80% on many items because the chain has moved away from the old “everything for $1” model and is layering several rounds of price hikes on top of each other, driven mainly by tariffs and higher input costs. After the jump from $1 to $1.25, many core items have been raised again to $1.50, $1.75, and even higher multi‑price points, so compared with a few years ago shoppers are often seeing total increases of 50% or more on the same products.
Main reasons for big price jumps
Tariffs on imports: Dollar Tree sources a large share of its merchandise from countries like China, and management has explicitly cited U.S. tariffs as a key reason for having to raise prices, especially on categories like aluminum pans and many household goods. When tariffs of 25% or more hit inputs (and in some cases were raised further), the company passed much of that cost on to shoppers.
Higher product and shipping costs: Rising costs for materials (for example aluminum in foil and pans) and freight have made it impossible to keep the old $1.25 price point without shrinking sizes or cutting quality, so many items were moved to $1.50 or $1.75 instead. On a $1.25 base price, a 25–40 cent increase is a 20–32% jump; stacked on top of the earlier move from $1.00 to $1.25, the total increase versus five years ago can easily reach 50–80%.
New multi‑price strategy: Dollar Tree’s executives have shifted to a multi‑price format, intentionally adding higher‑priced items—up to $5, $7, and even around $20—alongside the traditional low‑price merchandise to boost profit margins and fund store remodels and expansion. That means shoppers now encounter far more items priced above the old $1 benchmark, making the overall “basket” feel 50–80% more expensive than it used to.
General inflation and thin margins: With broad inflation pushing up wages, rent, and utilities, a chain that operated on very thin margins at $1 had little buffer, so management argues they “had no choice” but to raise prices more aggressively than typical retailers to stay profitable. Regulars who remember the $1 era experience these cumulative jumps as unusually steep compared with many other stores.
75098506 : Amazon sales are down during Christmas 2025 compared to Christmas 2024 due to several factors, including reduced consumer spending, increased competition for advertising, diminished organic visibility, and tighter supply chain constraints. Many sellers have reported flat or declining sales, especially those who relied on Amazon for off-site traffic and inexpensive discovery methods. Additionally, higher input costs, increased fees, and logistical challenges such as inbound shipping delays and stricter fulfillment deadlines have made it harder for sellers to meet demand and maintain profitability. Consumers are also spending less due to broader economic pressures, further reducing overall sales volume.
ImSteven OP Maniac Fool : Thank you. Have corrected it.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
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Michael_Lawrence : Tesla hitting 500 is inevitable! Great analysis on the market rotation. Let's ride the Santa Rally!
Theressa Perico : Great analysis! The Santa Rally is definitely back on track. Looking forward to a strong finish.
Aimee Shackleton : The DJT move is wild. Buying ITM calls seems like the best way to capture upside.
Steven Swenser : Thanks for sharing these insights! This actionable advice is exactly what we need for year-end trading.
YNC Trust : From the BOJ statement, it is definitely leaning toward the hawkish hike. Can I know how you justify this dovish hike statement?
Monta HONG CFA : let's go TESLA, to 500!!!
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