Santa rally? Never mind, watch airlines & Black Friday stocks
Investors still worried, as indicated by the fear index, but some buy the dip
US stocks attempted to rebound on Friday, but many investors remain unconvinced the market bottom is in. Last week the Aussie market fell 2.5%, the US S&P 500 dropped 2%, and Hong Kong’s market fell 5.1%. Investors are still dealing with AI anxiety, concerns about crypto leverage, and delayed US government data dampening rate-cut hopes. The worry now is that this week’s heavy data releases — US GDP, US CPI, and Aussie CPI — could rock the boat even more.
It’s also a shortened US trading week, which usually means lower volumes and more volatility. The fear gauge (VIX) still sits around 23, one of the highest levels since the March–April crash, signalling sophisticated traders are on edge about the next 30 days. Maybe we should be too. But what if US data swings in favour of rate cuts and markets kick off a late Santa rally? It could happen — which is why you need to stay focused on what matters to you.
Today’s focus: airlines, a usually volatile sector
With Americans heading off for Thanksgiving and Aussies thinking about holidays, keep an eye on airline stocks, especially US carriers. Americans are expected to spend a record amount on travel this year, with 81.8 million people travelling between November 25 and December 1 — up 2 million from last year, marking record holiday travel. With oil prices down on the week and on the year, maybe it’s time to add American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta to your watchlist. These airlines have historically performed well at this time of year over the past 10–20 years.
Australia’s Qantas has typically underperformed around this season — but could newly listed Virgin Australia buck the trend after its ASX debut this year? And will its non-stop flights from LA and San Francisco attract travellers?
EasyJet (ESYJ), which you can trade on moomoo, reports earnings Tuesday. This may indicate how airline sentiment is improving and show how much carriers are benefiting from the ~15% drop in oil prices this year. EasyJet has historically enjoyed its strongest stretch of returns from November to February. An easy way to gain broad airline exposure is the JETS ETF.
Airlines are volatile. But some have still delivered strong long-term gains — Qantas is up 75% over five years, while United Airlines is up 133% over the same period.
Airline investments to add to your watchlist $U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS.US)$, $American Airlines (AAL.US)$, $United Airlines (UAL.US)$, and $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$. $Qantas Airways Ltd (QAN.AU)$ $Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN.AU)$.
Would you trade airlines? Enter the survey to received moomoo points
Other stocks to add to your watchlist
$Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (VGN.AU)$ marks its five-month anniversary on the ASX today — and its share price perfectly illustrates airline volatility. Virgin listed at $3.12 on June 24, rallied 21% to $3.80, then fell into a bear market, dropping 21% to today’s $3.01. It’s not a stock you marry — but you could trade it. Its RSI of 25 indicates it’s oversold and may be due for a rebound.
With Christmas shopping in mind and Black Friday on this Friday, watch Chinese consumer bellwether $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ and $CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK)$ , both reporting Tuesday. Alibaba fell 4.65% last week but is still up 84% YTD and rated Strong Buy. Its results will give insight into Chinese consumer spending. Also watch fast-growing online retailer PDD (Temu’s parent). Australians are increasingly shopping online and don't mind a Temu find and PDD has historically delivered its best back-to-back returns in November and December. Don’t forget local favourite JB Hi-Fi, which tends to post one of its strongest multi-month runs from November to February.
$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ has become the first healthcare company to join the $1 trillion market-cap club. It is one of the US market’s favourite healthcare names, driving a revolution in obesity treatments alongside Novo Nordisk, with industry sales expected to hit US$150 billion by 2032. Eli Lilly rallied 3.4% last week (38% YTD) and was reiterated as a Buy by Bernstein and Citi. Overall, it’s rated Strong Buy by analysts.
Other articles of interest
Please note I have published at least five articles warnings of a potential crash since I came back to work around October 17.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Jessica Amir
Moomoo Market Strategist
moomoo, market strategist.
Seen/heard on Fox News Business, ABC, SBS, Reuters wires.
Investor/Trader.
9836
Followers
20
Following
23K
Visitors
Follow