S&P 500: Last week, for the first time since July 2023 all three correction criteria were triggered. A corrective move becomes most probable.

$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$ (1) The index broke its uptrend by closing below the short term moving average (2) market breadth as measured by Net New Highs, turned negative indicating more stocks made new lows than new highs and (3) momentum continues to fall apart.

These three correction criteria have preceded meaningful market declines.

In the scenario of a moderate decline I am speculating 7% towards 4800, and in a more severe outcome a 12% decline towards the 4500 - 4600 range. All of these decline targets create a wonderful technical retest of significant levels for the index.