Rocket Lab Earnings to Watch: Neutron Launch Timeline and Defense Orders

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Core Financial Indicators

$Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ is expected to post revenue of USD 178.18M for 2025Q4, up 34.59% YOY;

EPS is still expected to be negative. However, Rocket Lab's previous third-quarter report showed that its adjusted gross margin exceeded 40%. The company's guidance indicates that its gross profit margin is expected to continue rising.

Two Things to Watch

Launch Services: A Stable Core Business

Rocket Lab achieved 21 launches in 2025, setting a new annual record; it maintained a 100% mission success rate, solidifying its position as the world's second-largest commercial launch service provider. The company has already completed its first launch of 2026 in January. This suggests good visibility for Q4 revenue, with a high probability of meeting the quarterly guidance. Investors should pay attention to whether the price per launch and the profit margin of the launch business have improved.

Furthermore, Rocket Lab has completed multiple missions with the HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron) rocket, becoming a core service provider for the U.S. Department of Defense's hypersonic weapon testing. This business has a significantly higher gross margin than civilian launches, becoming a new growth driver for the launch segment.

It's worth noting that the Neutron rocket, which investors have been eagerly anticipating, experienced a hull rupture during testing in January of this year. Management needs to address the cause of this issue and provide a timeline for its resolution. The repeated delays in the Neutron launch have been the single largest factor affecting the stock price.

Space Systems: The Core Growth Engine

This is the biggest highlight of this financial report, and also the core validation of the company's transformation from a small rocket launch provider to a comprehensive space infrastructure contractor. Its growth rate is faster than the launch business, accounting for 73.6% of its total revenue in 2025 Q3, and has a higher gross margin.

Previously, on December 19, 2025, the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) announced the award of a $3.5 billion contract to four companies ( $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ , $Northrop Grumman (NOC.US)$ , $L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US)$ , and $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ ) for the procurement of a total of 72 missile warning and tracking satellites. Each company will produce 18 satellites for the SDA over the next three years. This contract is the largest single order in the company's history. Investors need to pay attention to the revenue recognition pace of this large SDA order.

Option Market Signals

Currently, Rocket Lab's put/call ratio is 0.69. Its implied volatility is 98.41%, which is at a relatively high level historically.

Summary of Risks and Opportunities

– Potential Positive Catalysts: Defense order growth

– Risks to Monitor: Neutron rocket first flight delayed

– Valuation:

Rocket Lab's PS ratio is 67.62 times, which is at the 97th percentile of its historical range over the past five years.

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