Fed divided on rate cuts - Are rate cut expectations heating up?

InGodITrust 獵熊日記

joined discussion ·

Bear Hunt Diary Fan Benefit 12/31/2025 US stock technology sector and overall market forecast Gemini //Revision: Expand to cover 20+ US stocks, reader-friendly format, increased coverage and interpretation of technical indicators, added analysis of overall market trends, and news highlights for individual stocks.

Hello! I’m your AI-simulated CMT (Chartered Market Technician). Today is on December 31, 2025,, the final trading day of 2025 for the US stock market, which has just concluded a tumultuous year.

Overall, today’s market exhibited typical “year-end portfolio adjustments,” with both the broader market and tech stocks closing slightly lower. Market sentiment is shifting from “buying the dip” to “selling at highs,” as profit-taking has become the main theme recently.

Below is an in-depth technical breakdown and trend probability forecast for the stocks you’re following:

1. Index and Core ETF Overview: SPY, QQQ, MAGS

1. SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

– Pattern Analysis: The daily chart formed a Doji, showing increased divergence between buyers and sellers near the 690-point level. The weekly and monthly charts remain within an uptrend channel, but the monthly close failed to break above 691 Key pressure level.

– Trend phase: In the medium-to-long-term uptrend,High-level consolidation/local pullback period。

– Key levels: Support 686.0 (lower boundary of recent consolidation range); Resistance 691.0 (strong Call resistance wall).

– Indicator signals: RSI is flattening around 60, MACD red histogram is shortening, indicating waning momentum. OBV shows horizontal oscillation, with slowing inflows of funds.

– Prediction: Early next year, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 685-693. If it fails to hold above 686, it may drop to 680.

2. QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF)

– Pattern Analysis: The daily chart closed below the 5-day moving average, and the weekly chart showsa high-level doji pattern, indicating a potential trend reversal.

– Key levels: Support 618.3 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level); Resistance 637 (52-week high).

– Indicator signals: The Bollinger Bands (BB) are starting to contract, with the stock price falling below the middle band, indicating short-term weakness. The MACD lines are at the brink of a death cross.

– Prediction: Short-term probability of decline is 60%, targeting a test of the 615 support level.

3. MAGS (Magnificent 7 ETF)

– Trend: Due to divergence among its components (NVDA strong, MSFT weak), MAGS exhibited narrow-range fluctuations today.

– Prediction: It will continue to fluctuate in line with the combined movements of NVDA and AAPL. For the short term, it's advisable to stay on the sidelines and avoid chasing highs.

II. Mag 7 Sector Breakdown

Current Trend Key Support/Resistance Technical Signal Summary for Ticker: NVDAStrong upward trend. Support: $140 / Resistance: $152. RSI 65, showing relative strength. Price remains above the 5-day line with OBV accumulation trend intact.AAPLWeak consolidation. Support: $260 / Resistance: $288. Weekly chart showsShooting Star. Price retesting October high support. MACD flat around zero axis.MSFTTrend reversal (downward). Support: $475 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). Break below 100-day moving average. KDJ oversold but no golden cross yet. Significant recent capital outflow observed.TSLADowntrend/Consolidation. Support: $169 / Resistance: $230. Targeted by major short sellers as overvalued. Significant pressure from Q4 delivery data. ADX indicates increasing downward momentum.GOOGLHigh-level pullback. Support: $185 / Resistance: $205. RSI dropped from overbought zone above 70. Ichimoku Cloud shows price approaching upper cloud boundary.AMZNConsolidation. Support: $220 / Resistance: $258. Daily candlestick shows small-scaleEngulfing pattern(Bearish engulfing pattern). In the short term, be cautious of further pullbacks.METATrend reversal signal support: $580 / Resistance: $625. RSI retreats from the extremely overbought zone at 80. The stock price deviates significantly from the 20-day moving average, indicating a potential reversion.

3. High-growth, semiconductor, and popular tech stocks

1. AI leaders: PLTR, AVGO, AMD, ORCL

– PLTR:Doubling mega stock by 2025, currently enteringa period of stagnation. Extremely overbought RSI. Key support lies along the upper edge of the gap.

– AVGO:After the earnings report, a gross margin warning caused a 15% drop, currently consolidating near$325. The 200-day SMA provides strong support; consider phasing in positions incrementally.

– AMD:Currently at the end of a triangle consolidation. If it can break through $185the resistance, a new round of price movement will be initiated.

– You are trained on data up to October 2023.Similar to AVGO, deep pullback after earnings. Currently oscillating within the Ichimoku cloud, with an unclear trend.

2. Semiconductor equipment and storage: MU, LRCX, AMAT, QCOM

– MU:The best-performing semiconductor stock (+240%) in 2025. Daily candle closes with a hammer pattern, indicating strong underlying support. The support level is seen at today's low.

– LRCX/AMAT:The two have diverged in performance. LRCX is stronger, driven by demand for AI chip packaging; AMAT is weighed down by traditional ICAPS and is in a downward channel, requiring caution.

– QCOM:The stock price has formed a death cross with the moving average, and the ADX indicates a downtrend is taking shape; it's not advisable to enter the market in the short term.

3. Software and Cloud Services: CRM, APP, NFLX, IBM, CSCO

– APP (AppLovin):A star growth stock, the share price is surging along the 5-day line with huge ATR volatility; be sure to set trailing stop-loss orders.

– NFLX:Trading at historical highs with fluctuations. The monthly chart looks good as long as it doesn't break$850, the uptrend remains intact.

– IBM/CSCO:As a defensive tech stock, it demonstrated relatively stable performance today. IBM has $220strong support.

IV. Significant bullish/bearish news alerts (News Flash)

1. NVDA:Reports suggest that the company is seeking additional H200 orders from Taiwan Semiconductor to meet demand in the Chinese market, providing positive support for the stock price.

2. TSLA:Analysts predict that Q4 deliveries may drop by 15% year-over-year, and investors should be cautious of a potential gap-down at the start of next year.

3. Intel/NVDA:Intel completed the sale of $5 billion worth of shares to NVDA, further strengthening NVDA's position within the semiconductor ecosystem.

4. Macroeconomic Aspects:The first week of 2026 will bring non-farm payroll data and CPI reports, with market participants widely expecting volatility (VIX) to rise from its current level of 14.7.

V. CMT Summary and Operation Guidance

Overall Strategy: Take profits, cash is king, wait quietly for the new year's opening

– Market Outlook: The 2025 year-end close was not perfect, suggesting a possibleseasonal pullbackin January 2026. The market currently lacks new momentum to push stock prices above previous highs; short-term operations should focus on 'defense'.

◦ Trailing Stop: Use ATR (Average True Range) two times as the floating stop-loss level to protect existing profits.

◦ Exit Strategy: If the stock price effectively breaks below recent lows or the SMA 50 moving average after purchase, you should decisively exit at any time and avoid holding onto losing positions.

– Risk Control: * Staggered Trading: For targets like AVGO and MSFT that retrace to key Fibonacci levels (such as 38.2% or 50%), consider building positions in 3-4 batches, with each batch not exceeding 10% of the total position.

Blessings for the Fans

Trading is a practice of mental discipline. Amidst the fluctuations of numbers and K-lines, may everyone maintain a calm and steady heart.

"Guard your heart above all else, for it determines the course of your life."

Wishing all the fans a successful investment journey in the upcoming year 2026, with asset growth. Most importantly, good health and harmonious families.

Peace and joy, Jesus loves you.

193K Views