Quick one today — I've been getting a few messages asking about MSFT after the recent drop, so I figured I'd just share where I'm at with it right now.

Microsoft is back on my watchlist. I've been watching it for a while actually, but it's only around this level that I think it's worth paying real attention.

MSFT closed around $372.97, touched $355 intraday and bounced back pretty hard. The chart is ugly if you zoom out — down from around $555, which means a lot of people who bought this as a "Magnificent 7, just hold it forever" kind of position are now sitting on real losses. That crowd has thinned out a bit. I don't think that's nothing.

I'm not calling a bottom here though. I want to be clear about that.

What's interesting to me is the gap between how the stock is trading and how the business is actually doing. Last quarter: revenue up 18% year over year, Microsoft Cloud up 29%, Azure up 40%. These are not the numbers of a company in trouble. So this sell-off has nothing to do with the fundamentals — it's the market getting impatient with the AI capex story. Microsoft is spending a lot on data centers and infrastructure, and investors are now asking when that spending actually shows up as profit. Fair question. I don't have a clean answer to it either.

But that's kind of the point. If there was a clean answer, the stock wouldn't be here.

What keeps me interested is that Microsoft isn't just betting on AI as a product — it's sitting on top of the enterprise distribution stack. Office, Azure, Teams, GitHub, LinkedIn, Copilot already embedded into workflows. If AI becomes a normal business tool rather than a hype cycle, Microsoft is probably one of the few companies that actually gets paid for it at scale. That's the thesis I'm holding.

My plan: I'm watching $350–360 as the support zone. If it holds, I think the risk-reward is reasonable. First target above would be $385–400, then $420 if momentum picks up. If it breaks below the recent low on weak tape, I'm wrong and I'm out.

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