Key news this week at a glance! Is a food crisis brewing?

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What risks might Trump face if he blockades the Strait of Hormuz himself:

It would lead to unbearable inflation in the US, especially since Kevin Warsh has not shown a dovish stance (though it’s also possible that he was acting before taking office to ensure a smooth transition).

Brief Comments on Kevin Warsh's Hearing

Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing had limited policy additions and was highly political, focusing on implementing his dual-track monetary policy approach of 'quantitative tightening + interest rate cuts.' It did not affect the market, which remains influenced by geopolitical factors. The likely sequence will be quantitative tightening first, followed by interest rate cuts. The timing of the rate cut should be when issues with the US economy are identified.

A food crisis is approaching, and this time it’s for real:

India is currently facing a fertilizer shortage, particularly nitrogen fertilizers.India’s situation is outrageous as there is no awareness of maintaining fertilizer reserves. India's current stockpile is only one-third of what’s needed for normal spring planting. Even under conditions where normal spring planting can be assured,there still exists a population suffering from hunger at a rate of 20%-30%.One of the reasons is that India has long relied on exporting grain to obtain US dollars to purchase US debt, high-end manufacturing equipment, and military weapons. Therefore, combined with the potential escalation of the El Niño high-temperature phenomenon this year, India could face a significant humanitarian crisis. It might not only reduce exports but also require humanitarian assistance.

Recent data from the World Bank shows that over the past two decades, Gulf countries have become crucial players in global fertilizer production, primarily ensuring supply for large regions in East Asia and Africa.The Gulf region has become the most crucial link in modern agriculture. $Food Shortage (LIST2649.US)$

AI Expansion Triggers Resource Chain Shock

The rapid expansion of AI data centers is causing a full-chain resource crunch involving electricity, water, and critical metals. According to a Bank of America report, there are already more than 11,200 data centers globally, and by 2030, their electricity consumption will surpass that of Japan as a whole, with annual water usage reaching 1.2 trillion liters. The value is shifting upstream along the AI value chain to 'physical enablers,' covering power generation, electrical equipment, cooling systems, and strategic metals.

Thus, AI is not only encroaching on human workspaces but even on physical living space. Subsequent resource shortages may worsen, exacerbating the food crisis.

Europe develops post-war plan, aiming to bypass the US and unblock the Strait of Hormuz.

Wall Street Journal Exclusive:European countries are forming fleets/international defense forces to ensure that shipping companies can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the war ends. This includes escort services and mine-clearing operations in the strait, primarily to quickly alleviate congestion and transport ships stranded in the Gulf out of the strait.

China’s electric power industry is expected to benefit from the Middle East conflict.

VLCC Industry Watch: Why Global Capital is Frantically Ordering New Oil Tankers After the Paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz

Oil tanker orders have tripled, with China Merchants Shipping placing an order worth 8.5 billion yuan for ten VLCCs at Dalian Shipbuilding. JPMorgan ordered four, and other major shipping giants have placed large orders in Asia, primarily in China. The estimated payback period is around ten years, with deliveries mainly scheduled for 2027-2030. This indicates that top capital giants don't view the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as having only short-term impacts but are looking further ahead. Over the next five to ten years, this coincides with the retirement timeline of older ships, which will need to be scrapped and dismantled.

Anthropic Valuation Surpasses OpenAI at One Trillion

AI startup Anthropic's valuation has skyrocketed to approximately one trillion US dollars in the private secondary market, surpassing OpenAI's valuation of about 880 billion US dollars. An unexpectedly large IPO could drain liquidity from the US stock market, warranting caution.

Major events next week:

April 25: US President Trump hosts the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner in early summer.

April 29: The Fed’s FOMC announces interest rate decisions. Fed Chair Powell holds a press conference on monetary policy.

April 29: US Tech Earnings Day - Reports from MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN.

April 30: Apple earnings report.

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