Predictions for New iPad Models and Production Timeline in 2024

Conclusion:
1. Apple will upgrade existing iPad models and launch new a new model in 2024, but shipments are still far from the peak in 2022 due to the decline in work-from-home (WFH) demand and a lack of structural change in the entertainment and productivity user experience.
2. Key upgrades to focus on include the M3 processor and OLED displays.
3. iPad shipments in 2024 are estimated at 52–54 million units (vs. about 50 million in 2023 and about 63 million in 2022).

iPad Air (1Q24):
1. Two iPad Air models, 10.9-inch and 12.9-inch, are scheduled for mass production in 1Q24.
2. The 12.9-inch iPad Air is an all-new model, and while it lacks mini-LED, it benefits from an Oxide backplane (the same spec as the existing mini-LED iPad Pro’s), offering better display performance than the 10.9-inch iPad Air with an a-Si backplane.

OLED iPad Pro (late 1Q24–2Q24):
1. Two new OLED iPad Pros, replacing mini-LED, are scheduled for mass production in late 1Q24–2Q24
2. The OLED iPad Pros will feature an M3 processor and the improved form factor designs.
3. The OLED panels for the new iPad Pros will adopt the Tandem design and LTPO backplanes (the same backplanes used in the iPhone 15 Pros), outperforming the existing mini-LED iPad Pro in terms of display performance and power consumption.
4. Mass production will be delayed to late 1Q24–2Q24 (vs. early 1Q24 planned initially) due to production issues with OLED panel modules.
5. If the price of the new 10.9-inch iPad Air remains unchanged, and the new 12.9-inch iPad Air is definitely more expensive than the 10.9-inch model, then if Apple wants to maintain the price gap between the iPad Air and iPad Pro to preserve its existing product segmentation strategy, it means that the new OLED iPad Pros may see a price increase.
6. Shipments of the two OLED iPad Pro models will be 6–8 million units in 2024, with slightly weaker shipment momentum than the existing iPad Pros, possibly due to the higher price of OLED iPads and potential cannibalization from the 12.9-inch iPad Air.

More affordable models (2H24):
1. Mass production of the new iPad mini is delayed to 2H24 (vs. the previous prediction of 1Q24).
2. The new iPad 11th generation will enter mass production in 2H24.
3. The iPad 9th generation production will go to end-of-life (EOL) before the end of 2024.