Pre-market losses in US stocks continue, risk appetite weakens, financial risks still exist; is the rebound in gold sustainable? Has the risk of financial liquidity been alleviated, and has #Bitcoin completed its final drop?

Pre-market losses in US stocks continue, risk appetite weakens, financial risks still exist; is the rebound in gold sustainable? Has the risk of financial liquidity been alleviated, and has #Bitcoin completed its final drop?

The US dollar is currently stable above 97, gold rebounded during the day, and US Treasury movements have temporarily stabilized. In the short term, the crisis of selling gold and #BTC to cover leveraged positions in the US stock market seems to have eased, but whether the real crisis has been resolved will depend on the market reaction after the official opening of US stocks.

Although US stocks remained in decline during pre-market trading and risk appetite weakened, BTC has clearly already priced in the drop of the US stock market. As long as US equities do not continue to fall further after the opening, BTC's short-term trend will likely remain relatively stable.

Currently, BTC has broken the short-term bottoming signal formed yesterday after falling during the day. The next step is to reassess the clarity of this short-term bottoming signal starting from the 1-hour timeframe and gradually moving up to the daily chart.

The main characteristics include a sharp dip at the bottom followed by a rebound. We need to observe whether the next 2-3 candlesticks show a strong rebound surpassing the high point of the initial sharp dip. This would confirm a bottom on the 1-hour chart, then we can move on to check the 4-hour chart and eventually the daily chart.

After today’s afternoon decline, BTC’s price has reached another critical turning point — the lowest point seen in April 2025. This level is clearly a sentiment turning signal. If the price falls below the April 7 low of 74,500, market sentiment could turn even more bearish, triggering stronger selling pressure. Conversely, if the price manages to stabilize and continues to rebound with range-bound fluctuations, it might indicate that this could be the last major drop in the near term!

This week, the key observation will be whether the 74,500 support holds firm or is decisively breached. If prices stabilize and maintain a range-bound rebound, and if positive news stimulates a rapid rally with BTC holding above 79,800 in the short term and reclaiming 83,000 later this week, it would better confirm the short-term bottom. Afterward, we just need to monitor how long the consolidation phase lasts before a meaningful upward breakout occurs.

Market Data:

Market data remains somewhat pessimistic overall. However, compared to Saturday, short-term panic hasn’t expanded, and market sentiment has slightly improved. Trading volume surged amid the decline, indicating substantial selling pressure has already been released in the short term.

On the capital flow front, although the total amount decreased by 500 million, the net outflows were not from mainstream stablecoins.

USDT market cap increased by 110 million, and USDC market cap rose by 268 million. Capital inflows have been observed in both Asian and US markets, which is a positive sign. The return of funds suggests growing investor interest, particularly indicating some willingness to buy the dip, which is beneficial for BTC and the broader market trend.

Summary:

Current market data shows that the US market hasn't fully exerted itself yet. Tonight, we’ll watch how the US stock market reacts. Today's decline once again triggered heavy trading volumes, releasing significant selling pressure in the short term while also seeing net inflows of funds. Once the market stabilizes and confidence gradually returns, prices may start to hold steady.

For this week, the focus will be on the rebound: where it stabilizes, whether it can quickly move away from the danger zone, and ultimately confirm if this is indeed the last major drop in the recent period!