📰 PERSONAL ARTICLE 📰
Originaly Published on December the 4th, 2025.
DRONESHIELD
This is a classic case of Sentiment vs. Fundamentals. The business is making record money, but the people running it broke the market's trust.
Here is the brief explanation of the crash and an outlook for recovery.
Why the Price Crashed So Quickly
The stock price has fallen 70% since its peak in October, primarily due to a lack of confidence by investors rather than a failure of the business itself.
Massive Insider Selling (Causing Panic Selling):
In mid-November 2025, the CEO (Oleg Vornik) sold his entire personal holding of $49.5m. Other directors also sold significant amounts. (Note that this means the CEO sold at approx. $2.50 per share.)
When a CEO sells everything, it sends a terrifying signal to investors that they might believe the stock has peaked or that bad news is coming. This triggered a panic sell-off.
The Contract Issue (Trust Breaker):
Around the same time, the company announced a "new" contract. They later had to retract/correct this, admitting it was actually just a re-issue or amendment of an existing order, not new money.
This made the company look dishonest. Investors hate uncertainty and poor governance.
Valuation Gravity:
Before the drop, DroneShield (DRO) shares had risen over 400% in 2025. It was priced for perfection. When you are priced that high, any mistake causes a massive correction. As per my warnings.
Does it Have a Chance to Recover?
Yes, it has a strong chance, but it will likely be slow. The business numbers are actually very good, but the distrust factor will hold the price down for a while.
The Bull Case:
Record Financials: Despite the share price crash, the business is booming. They just reported record revenues and plenty in the bank with no/next to zero debt.
Global Demand: Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made drone defence a top priority for every government. This new style of warfare is still in the favour of DroneShield.
Oversold: The panic selling may have pushed the price too low relative to their actual earnings.
The Bear Case (The Risks):
The "Trust Penalty": Big institutional investors (who drive the price up) often avoid companies with governance issues. They may wait 6–12 months to see if management stabilises before buying again.
Technology Risk (Fibre-Optic Drones): DroneShield's main tech is jamming the radio signal between the pilot and the drone.
In the Ukraine/Russia conflict has started using fibre-optic drones (connected by a physical wire). These cannot be jammed because they don't use radio signals.
If this tech becomes standard, DroneShield’s current products become less effective, whereas competitors like EOS (who shoot drones down with kinetics/lasers) might gain an edge.
Summary Verdict
The stock is likely cheap based on numbers but expensive based on risk.
Recovery Timeline: Do not expect a "V-shaped" recovery (bouncing back instantly). It will likely trade sideways or slowly grind up as they report real earnings over the next 2-3 quarters.
What to Watch:
Ignore the hype.
Watch the next quarterly report.
If they sign legitimate new contracts and revenue keeps growing, the share price will eventually follow the money, regardless of what the CEO sold.
Wait for executives to buy back in.
- The International Investor
All rights reserved.
Any and all my writing, including all text, figures, and data, is the intellectual property of myself and is protected by copyright law. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.
The information contained on any and all of my posts and the resources available through any and all platforms are for educational and informational purposes only. The content provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice.
I am not a financial advisor, broker, or licensed professional. The information presented is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product. You should not construe any of the material provided as a substitute for professional financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content on this platform before making any decisions based on such information. By using this platform, you agree not to hold me or any of my affiliates liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information made available to you through this platform.
Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor in your jurisdiction before making any investment decisions.
Here is the brief explanation of the crash and an outlook for recovery.
Why the Price Crashed So Quickly
The stock price has fallen 70% since its peak in October, primarily due to a lack of confidence by investors rather than a failure of the business itself.
Massive Insider Selling (Causing Panic Selling):
In mid-November 2025, the CEO (Oleg Vornik) sold his entire personal holding of $49.5m. Other directors also sold significant amounts. (Note that this means the CEO sold at approx. $2.50 per share.)
When a CEO sells everything, it sends a terrifying signal to investors that they might believe the stock has peaked or that bad news is coming. This triggered a panic sell-off.
The Contract Issue (Trust Breaker):
Around the same time, the company announced a "new" contract. They later had to retract/correct this, admitting it was actually just a re-issue or amendment of an existing order, not new money.
This made the company look dishonest. Investors hate uncertainty and poor governance.
Valuation Gravity:
Before the drop, DroneShield (DRO) shares had risen over 400% in 2025. It was priced for perfection. When you are priced that high, any mistake causes a massive correction. As per my warnings.
Does it Have a Chance to Recover?
Yes, it has a strong chance, but it will likely be slow. The business numbers are actually very good, but the distrust factor will hold the price down for a while.
The Bull Case:
Record Financials: Despite the share price crash, the business is booming. They just reported record revenues and plenty in the bank with no/next to zero debt.
Global Demand: Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have made drone defence a top priority for every government. This new style of warfare is still in the favour of DroneShield.
Oversold: The panic selling may have pushed the price too low relative to their actual earnings.
The Bear Case (The Risks):
The "Trust Penalty": Big institutional investors (who drive the price up) often avoid companies with governance issues. They may wait 6–12 months to see if management stabilises before buying again.
Technology Risk (Fibre-Optic Drones): DroneShield's main tech is jamming the radio signal between the pilot and the drone.
In the Ukraine/Russia conflict has started using fibre-optic drones (connected by a physical wire). These cannot be jammed because they don't use radio signals.
If this tech becomes standard, DroneShield’s current products become less effective, whereas competitors like EOS (who shoot drones down with kinetics/lasers) might gain an edge.
Summary Verdict
The stock is likely cheap based on numbers but expensive based on risk.
Recovery Timeline: Do not expect a "V-shaped" recovery (bouncing back instantly). It will likely trade sideways or slowly grind up as they report real earnings over the next 2-3 quarters.
What to Watch:
Ignore the hype.
Watch the next quarterly report.
If they sign legitimate new contracts and revenue keeps growing, the share price will eventually follow the money, regardless of what the CEO sold.
Wait for executives to buy back in.
- The International Investor
All rights reserved.
Any and all my writing, including all text, figures, and data, is the intellectual property of myself and is protected by copyright law. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.
The information contained on any and all of my posts and the resources available through any and all platforms are for educational and informational purposes only. The content provided is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice.
I am not a financial advisor, broker, or licensed professional. The information presented is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or financial product. You should not construe any of the material provided as a substitute for professional financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content on this platform before making any decisions based on such information. By using this platform, you agree not to hold me or any of my affiliates liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on information made available to you through this platform.
Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor in your jurisdiction before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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GLOBAL INVESTOR OP : We beat the CEO. He sold at $2.50. We sold at $5.50 and reverse DCA’d on the way down.
GLOBAL INVESTOR OP : Again, ALL COPYRIGHTS RESERVED.