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Options Weekly Roundup - Can GTC and the Fed Reignite Market Optimism?

U.S. stocks extended their pullback last week, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq down 1.6%, 2.0%, and 1.3%, respectively. The main pressure came from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices higher, increased shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz, and coincided with a surprising drop of 92,000 in February nonfarm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Although February CPI came in at just 2.4% year over year, the market has already started to worry that March inflation could be pushed back up by higher energy prices.

This week is a mini “super week” for the market. NVIDIA’s GTC conference will take place during today’s trading session. In addition, the FOMC meeting will be held on March 17–18, February PPI will be released on March 18, and key earnings reports are due from Micron, FedEx, Lululemon, and Accenture. Among these, how Powell responds to the combination of weakening employment and rising oil prices will be critical in determining whether risk appetite can stabilize.

Outlook: The market is still trading the reflation risk created by geopolitical conflict. If oil remains around $100 or higher, the major indexes will likely stay range-bound to weak. If the Fed does not turn more hawkish and earnings from companies like Micron continue to validate strength across the AI supply chain, the Nasdaq may see a rebound. This view is based on the current oil shock, the Fed’s wait-and-see stance, and this week’s earnings catalysts.

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What is Trading

(1) Oracle

Oracle’s earnings were undoubtedly one of last week’s market highlights. Before the report, @Invest with Sarge published a technical analysis of the stock and argued that the chart was signaling a bullish-bearish turning point. After earnings, Oracle surged 9%, temporarily breaking out of its bottom range.

Readers will first notice a large falling-wedge pattern of bullish reversal running from about mid-October until today. This pattern appears to be possibly closing.

In fact, Oracle has already moved above the pattern's upper trendline and is trying to take its 21-day exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line above). That's the stock's apparent upside pivot for now, and it's also where the swing crowd could get involved.

At the same time, Oracle's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a squiggly blue line) isn't all that far away -- $172.30 in the chart above vs. ORCL's $152.96 close on Friday.

Meanwhile, Oracle's Relative Strength (the gray line at the chart's top) has steadily improved, although it remains weak...

All in, this is starting to look like a technically bullish chart -- although enough technical issues persist to remain cautious. Read more>>

(2) MSFT

Among the Mag-7 stocks, Microsoft had previously seen one of the deepest declines. @LukeHW believes Microsoft may be due for a technical rebound and proposed a corresponding options strategy.

A potential strategy, if you believe the price mismatch from fundamental, is the bull put spread on a neutral to bullish stance. Notes: the downside risk, compared to shorting naked put (selling put only), is limited as the maximum loss equals (higher put strike price − lower put strike price − net premium per share) × 100 × contract quantity. You have limited downside risk as the long put leg caps the loss, and a neutral to bullish stance. Since you buy additional put to cap the downside, the premium you received will be lower than shorting naked put.

Another reason to use this strategy is when you are unsure at what price to acquire Microsoft. The price seems to have rebounded before touching the 380 level. Historically speaking, the company has never broken its 200-day moving average (Figure 3). If you want to acquire the stock but are not sure at what price, the bull put spread gives you a nice entry:

→ If the stock price stays comfortably above your breakeven, the position expires profitably as theta decays the premium.

→ If the stock drops and breaches the short put strike, close out the long put leg first. From there, adapt based on your updated view (remember the thesis is fundamental support and you do not mind owning the stock) → say anticipating a further sell-off with a price target → sell additional puts to capitalize on elevated volatility/premiums; Expecting only a shallower drop with quick rebound → use the initial credit collected to "finance" potential assignment on the short put, then consider layering on covered calls afterward for further income.

At the same time, the author also noted that Microsoft has a large market capitalization and a heavy weight in major indexes, so its correlation with the broader index is relatively high. If the index remains under pressure, Microsoft may also struggle to stage a clear rebound. That is the key risk. Read more>>

Opinions

Over the previous weekend (March 7–8), tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict suddenly escalated, and risk-off sentiment intensified, sending the three major U.S. indexes lower during Monday’s Asian trading session before they sharply reversed during the U.S. session. In an article published the next day, @Options Hunter argued that despite the V-shaped rebound, investors still should not be overly optimistic, because elevated oil prices could lift inflation expectations and bring stagflation risk back into the market.

While historical data suggests markets typically recover from geopolitical shocks within 1–3 months, the intersection of energy volatility and midterm election year politics suggests that the "fear floor" (VIX near 20) has not yet fully settled. In this environment, capital preservation and volatility-harvesting strategies are prioritized over aggressive directional bets.

To navigate this uncertainty, we utilize the Expected Move (EM) as a statistical boundary for trade construction. In high-volatility environments, traditional technical levels (like moving averages) are easily breached. The EM is derived from the Implied Volatility (IV) of the options themselves—essentially the market’s collective "bet" on the price range. Read more>>

Riding the Wave

(1) Oil Price

Crude experienced violent swings during the week. It first spiked to 119 on Monday, then fell back below 80, and later rose again toward 100. Although the first surge happened before the open and was difficult to capture, the second rally offered plenty of trading opportunities. Investor @amusing Finch_1428 traded near-term call options on the oil ETF USO and generated a 6x return. Read more>>

(2) HIMS

The second major profit opportunity of the week came from AI healthcare company Hims & Hers, which reached a cooperation agreement with Novo Nordisk on March 9. The stock jumped 40% that day and then continued rising for another three sessions. Investor @nowuuuh used near-term call options on the 2x leveraged HIMS ETF HIMZ and achieved a 10x return. Read more>>

Looking Forwards

March 16 (Monday) - NVIDIA GTC 2026 opens, Jensen Huang keynote: 2:00 PM–4:00 PM ET

March 17 (Tuesday) - Lululemon earnings: after market close

March 18 (Wednesday) -

U.S. February PPI: 8:30 AM ET

FOMC rate decision/statement: 2:00 PM ET

Powell press conference: 2:30 PM ET

Micron FY2026 Q2 earnings: after market close

March 19 (Thursday)

FedEx FY2026 Q3 earnings: after market close

With multiple macro, geopolitical, and earnings factors in play, market volatility may pick up this week—creating more opportunities for options trading!

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Stay tuned for more, and happy trading! 🌟

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