Tokyo Market Open: Nikkei Average Continues to Rise Amid Hopes for the Takamura Administration but Caution Over Yen Appreciation; Ibiden Up 7% on Inclusion in MSCI Japan Index; JX Advanced Metals Soars Following Earnings Upgrade; Honda Under Selling Pressure as Final Profit Drops 42% Due to EV Market and Tariffs; Shiseido Surges 13% Towards a Return to Profitability
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Here is a summary of this morning's opening. Thank you for your attention.
Market Overview
The Tokyo stock market started with buying pressure, with the Nikkei average opening 214 yen higher at 57,864 yen compared to the previous business day, continuing its upward trend.
The US employment report, which had been postponed due to a partial government shutdown, was released the previous day, showing an increase of 130,000 jobs in the non-agricultural sector. While concerns over a slowdown in the US economy eased after surpassing market expectations, it also led to a retreat in interest rate cut expectations, causing all three major US indices to fall during the session. The Tokyo market, reopening after a holiday, is expected to continue seeing support from optimism surrounding the Takamura administration following its decisive victory in the recent lower house election. However, a stronger yen is likely to weigh on upside potential.
The Tokyo stock market started with buying pressure, with the Nikkei average opening 214 yen higher at 57,864 yen compared to the previous business day, continuing its upward trend.
The US employment report, which had been postponed due to a partial government shutdown, was released the previous day, showing an increase of 130,000 jobs in the non-agricultural sector. While concerns over a slowdown in the US economy eased after surpassing market expectations, it also led to a retreat in interest rate cut expectations, causing all three major US indices to fall during the session. The Tokyo market, reopening after a holiday, is expected to continue seeing support from optimism surrounding the Takamura administration following its decisive victory in the recent lower house election. However, a stronger yen is likely to weigh on upside potential.
Top News
[Stocks to Watch] Ibiden Rises Sharply = Newly Added to MSCI Japan Index
$Ibiden (4062.JP)$Shares are sharply higher by 586 yen from the previous trading day to 8,504 yen, benefiting from being newly added to the MSCI Japan Index.
[Stocks to Watch] Ibiden Rises Sharply = Newly Added to MSCI Japan Index
$Ibiden (4062.JP)$Shares are sharply higher by 586 yen from the previous trading day to 8,504 yen, benefiting from being newly added to the MSCI Japan Index.
MSCI announced the regular stock replacement for the MSCI Japan Index on the 10th. The newly added stocks are Ibiden and $Shimizu (1803.JP)$ two stocks, while $Kobe Bussan (3038.JP)$ 、 $SG Holdings (9143.JP)$ 、 $Tokyo Metro (9023.JP)$ 、 $Trend Micro (4704.JP)$ four stocks will be removed. The stock replacement will be implemented based on the closing prices on the 27th.
The MSCI Japan Index is a benchmark index for institutional investors both domestically and internationally. Market participants commented that 'Amid expectations of a long-term stable administration under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, foreign investor buying is anticipated, making the stock replacement in the index closely watched by overseas institutional investors an important factor. The rise in semiconductor-related stocks in the U.S. market the previous day also contributed to increased buying in Ibiden' (online brokerage). 'Trading demand related to stock replacement is expected, leading short-term players to buy newly included stocks in advance while selling excluded ones' (domestic brokerage).
Shimizu Construction's stock price rose to 3,552 yen, 34 yen higher than the previous trading day, but since the stock had surged nearly 30% from the end of last month, 'buying did not continue, and profit-taking sales gradually increased due to short-term caution over high prices' (previous domestic brokerage).
On the other hand, Kobe Matsusho, one of the excluded stocks, fell 67 yen to 3,760 yen, SGHD dropped 16.5 yen to 1,473.0 yen, Tokyo Metro declined 11.5 yen to 1,686.5 yen, and Trend fell 193 yen to 5,684 yen, all losing value. (9:23)
JX Metals – Buy signal as full-year operating profit and year-end dividend revised upward; 3Q cumulative operating profit up 45%
$JX Advanced Metals (5016.JP)$ shows buying interest. On the 10th, the company raised its consolidated operating income forecast (IFRS) for the fiscal year 26.3 from 125 billion yen to 150 billion yen (a 33.4% increase from the previous period), surpassing the market consensus of 144.6 billion yen.
$JX Advanced Metals (5016.JP)$ shows buying interest. On the 10th, the company raised its consolidated operating income forecast (IFRS) for the fiscal year 26.3 from 125 billion yen to 150 billion yen (a 33.4% increase from the previous period), surpassing the market consensus of 144.6 billion yen.
Demand for key products in the information and communication materials segment for AI server applications expanded at a pace exceeding previous forecasts, while favorable exchange rates and copper prices contributed positively.
Consolidated operating income for the first three quarters (April-December) of fiscal year 26.3 was 124.8 billion yen, a 44.8% increase from the same period last year.
Additionally, the company announced a revision of its year-end dividend forecast for fiscal year 26.3 from 15 yen to 21 yen. The annual dividend forecast will be adjusted from 21 yen to 27 yen.
In addition, in order to further strengthen the production capacity of indium phosphide substrates—a crystalline material seeing rapidly increasing demand, particularly in the optical communications sector—they also announced plans to make capital investments. The investment amount this time is approximately 20 billion yen. Combined with additional equipment investments announced last July and October, production capacity is expected to triple by 2030 compared to 2025 levels.
SUMCO - Selling pressure expected as Q1 forecast indicates a shift to net loss. Previous term results exceeded plan.
$SUMCO (3436.JP)$ Shares are under selling pressure. On the 10th, the company announced a consolidated operating loss forecast of 6.0 billion yen for the first quarter (January-March) of fiscal year 2026 (versus a profit of 5.99 billion yen in the same period last year), along with an undetermined annual dividend forecast. Market consensus was a loss of 4.58 billion yen.
$SUMCO (3436.JP)$ Shares are under selling pressure. On the 10th, the company announced a consolidated operating loss forecast of 6.0 billion yen for the first quarter (January-March) of fiscal year 2026 (versus a profit of 5.99 billion yen in the same period last year), along with an undetermined annual dividend forecast. Market consensus was a loss of 4.58 billion yen.
The 300mm silicon wafer is expected to see strong demand for advanced logic and DRAM used in AI data centers, along with growing demand for NAND driven by expanded server SSD adoption. Meanwhile, in non-advanced logic products, customers are planning significant inventory adjustments, which will likely lead to reduced purchase volumes. Depreciation expenses are projected at 31.3 billion yen (a decrease of 4.3 billion yen from the previous quarter).
Consolidated operating profit for the full fiscal year 2025 was 1.34 billion yen (a 96.4% decrease from the previous term). The company's plan had forecast a loss of 4.2 billion yen. Steady production activities and associated cost improvements contributed to the result.
Shiseido - Buying interest seen as a forecast projects an operating profit of 59 billion yen this term; despite a loss of 28.8 billion yen last term, results exceeded the plan.
$Shiseido (4911.JP)$ Buying interest observed. On the 10th, the company announced its consolidated operating income (IFRS) forecast for the fiscal year 2026 at 59 billion yen in profit, with an annual dividend forecast of 60 yen (up from 40 yen the previous year). Market consensus was 54.2 billion yen.
$Shiseido (4911.JP)$ Buying interest observed. On the 10th, the company announced its consolidated operating income (IFRS) forecast for the fiscal year 2026 at 59 billion yen in profit, with an annual dividend forecast of 60 yen (up from 40 yen the previous year). Market consensus was 54.2 billion yen.
In the Americas business, structural reform effects are anticipated to drive profitability towards the black, while in Japan, revenue growth will be pursued through price adjustments and expanded sales of high-value-added brands. The China Travel Retail business is expected to remain challenging amid a tough market environment.
Consolidated operating loss for the full fiscal year 2025 amounted to 28.8 billion yen (compared to a profit of 7.6 billion yen the previous term), surpassing the company’s planned loss of 42 billion yen. Despite lower-than-expected revenue on a real basis, the overachievement was attributed to added structural reform benefits and effective cost management.
Honda - Selling pressure seen as Q3 cumulative net profit fell 42%, impacted by changing EV market conditions and tariffs.
$Honda Motor (7267.JP)$ Selling pressure emerges. On the 10th, the company announced that its consolidated net profit (IFRS) for the 3Q cumulative period (April-December) of FY26.3 was 465.4 billion yen (a year-on-year decrease of 42.2%). Market consensus was 406.9 billion yen.
$Honda Motor (7267.JP)$ Selling pressure emerges. On the 10th, the company announced that its consolidated net profit (IFRS) for the 3Q cumulative period (April-December) of FY26.3 was 465.4 billion yen (a year-on-year decrease of 42.2%). Market consensus was 406.9 billion yen.
Although there were profit increases due to selling prices and cost impacts, effects from changing EV market conditions and tariff impacts weighed heavily. The company noted that through various efforts with suppliers, the initial forecast of 450 billion yen in tariffs was reduced to 310 billion yen.
Open H surpasses the 10,000 yen mark for the first time, revising upward its FY26.9 earnings forecast and dividend forecast.
$Open House Group (3288.JP)$ The stock is on a three-day rally, breaking through the 10,000-yen threshold and reaching an all-time high since listing. After trading closed on the 10th, the company revised upward its consolidated earnings forecast for FY26.9, raising operating profit from 170 billion yen to 174.5 billion yen (an increase of 19.6% over the previous fiscal year) and net profit from 112 billion yen to 115.5 billion yen (an increase of 14.7% year-on-year). Additionally, it raised its dividend forecast from 94 yen each at interim and final dividends (totaling 188 yen annually) to 100 yen each (totaling 200 yen annually), which was well-received. Sales remained unchanged at 1.485 trillion yen (an increase of 11.1% year-on-year). However, strong demand in urban areas, particularly in the Greater Tokyo Area, coupled with rising condominium prices and decreasing supply, is expected to drive steady progress in single-family home-related businesses.
$Open House Group (3288.JP)$ The stock is on a three-day rally, breaking through the 10,000-yen threshold and reaching an all-time high since listing. After trading closed on the 10th, the company revised upward its consolidated earnings forecast for FY26.9, raising operating profit from 170 billion yen to 174.5 billion yen (an increase of 19.6% over the previous fiscal year) and net profit from 112 billion yen to 115.5 billion yen (an increase of 14.7% year-on-year). Additionally, it raised its dividend forecast from 94 yen each at interim and final dividends (totaling 188 yen annually) to 100 yen each (totaling 200 yen annually), which was well-received. Sales remained unchanged at 1.485 trillion yen (an increase of 11.1% year-on-year). However, strong demand in urban areas, particularly in the Greater Tokyo Area, coupled with rising condominium prices and decreasing supply, is expected to drive steady progress in single-family home-related businesses.
In the concurrently released Q1 results (October-December FY25), revenue amounted to 329.85 billion yen (a year-on-year increase of 4.3%), operating profit was 40.292 billion yen (a year-on-year increase of 17.3%), and net profit stood at 27.407 billion yen (a year-on-year increase of 19.6%). The income property business led growth, driven by robust demand from corporate clients and affluent investors targeting rental apartments and office buildings. Meanwhile, the core single-family home business saw deliveries remain flat compared to the same period last year but sales contracts performed well as demand for single-family homes in key development areas showed signs of recovery.
<Special Quote> Kioxia, JX Advanced Metals, and Ibiden show buying interest.
As of February 12, 9:03:25 AM, there are 75 special buy orders and 47 special sell orders.
$Kioxia Holdings (285A.JP)$ The stock has attracted top buy orders worth 19.6 billion yen (sell orders stand at 14 billion yen), pushing up the special buy quote. $JX Advanced Metals (5016.JP)$や $Shiseido (4911.JP)$ 、 $Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182.JP)$ There are also substantially more buy than sell orders, raising the possibility that the stock could be bought up to its upper limit price.
In addition, $Ibiden (4062.JP)$や $Mitsui Kinzoku (5706.JP)$ This stock is also moving to a special buying quote.
On the other hand, following a sharp rise the previous day, $NEC (6701.JP)$ Conversely, today the stock has accumulated the largest sell order worth 10 billion yen (buy orders stand at 6.7 billion yen), driving down the special sell quote.
In addition, $IHI (7013.JP)$や $Mitsubishi Estate (8802.JP)$ 、 $SUMCO (3436.JP)$ 、 $Nitto Denko (6988.JP)$ This stock is also shifting to a special selling quote.
As of February 12, 9:03:25 AM, there are 75 special buy orders and 47 special sell orders.
$Kioxia Holdings (285A.JP)$ The stock has attracted top buy orders worth 19.6 billion yen (sell orders stand at 14 billion yen), pushing up the special buy quote. $JX Advanced Metals (5016.JP)$や $Shiseido (4911.JP)$ 、 $Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (4182.JP)$ There are also substantially more buy than sell orders, raising the possibility that the stock could be bought up to its upper limit price.
In addition, $Ibiden (4062.JP)$や $Mitsui Kinzoku (5706.JP)$ This stock is also moving to a special buying quote.
On the other hand, following a sharp rise the previous day, $NEC (6701.JP)$ Conversely, today the stock has accumulated the largest sell order worth 10 billion yen (buy orders stand at 6.7 billion yen), driving down the special sell quote.
In addition, $IHI (7013.JP)$や $Mitsubishi Estate (8802.JP)$ 、 $SUMCO (3436.JP)$ 、 $Nitto Denko (6988.JP)$ This stock is also shifting to a special selling quote.
Source: MINKABU, Trader's Web, Fisco, Stock Newspaper, Jiji Press
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