On the first trading day of February, the market is in a pha...

On the first trading day of February, the market is in a phase of lamentation and caution. Key macro events are still unresolved, geopolitical risks pose a latent threat, and Wash's policy expectations have brought some emotional pressure to the market. How will the market find its footing?

Tonight's key points to watch:

1. Whether the House successfully reconvenes and votes smoothly on the remaining fiscal bills, allowing the US government to resume operations quickly and avoid an escalation of risks from a government shutdown.

2. During the US trading session, how is the market interpreting Wash's policy? Is it continuing to expand pessimistic expectations for tightening, or is the market gradually adapting? At the same time, will Bessent cooperate with the current market expectations regarding Wash's policies to further consolidate the stability of the US dollar and allow it to strengthen in the short term?

3. Regarding the performance of various assets in the financial markets, will the US dollar continue to rise? Can gold find a bottom, and can US Treasury prices continue to increase, lowering long-end yields and easing the selling pressure on US bonds to stabilize their trend? Once confidence in the US dollar returns and US Treasuries stabilize, the liquidity threat eases, which also means that risk markets may get a temporary reprieve.

Among tonight’s assets, pay close attention to the movements of the US dollar and US Treasuries first. Will gold be able to effectively stabilize and rebound? A rebound in gold indicates reduced demand for short-term liquidity replenishment in risk markets, which would ease some pressure on risk markets, potentially leading to a rebound in US stocks.

Of course, given the current financial risks, it is important to monitor whether US officials might intervene through public statements, especially Trump, Bessent, and Wash.