Nvidia vs. Tesla: Which Stock to Bet on for the Rest of 2025?

Nvidia leads the YTD performance among the M7, while Tesla's impressive 32% gain in September makes it a strong contender.

With key catalysts for both companies in the coming months, where should investors place their bets right now?

– 10/6: OpenAI DevDay – OpenAI’s annual developer-focused event could bring news about new models or updates to inference costs, which would affect the AI infrastructure and AIGC sectors, especially Nvidia’s supply chain and collaboration.

– 10/13: Oracle AI World – Oracle's flagship AI conference, where the company will showcase its AI developments, especially its work with OpenAI and supercomputing. This will provide valuable insights into the "second-tier cloud + AI infrastructure" space.

– 10/16: TSMC Q3 Earnings Report – Focus on CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity and pricing, as well as N2 production and yield rhythm.

– 10/28: GTCDC20 Keynote – Nvidia’s GTC in Washington, D.C., where Jensen Huang’s keynote usually updates the industry on GPU platforms, networking, software stacks, and the public sector’s compute demand.

– 11/19: Q3 FY26 Earnings Call – Key focus on data center revenue, GB200 shipments, Ethernet Spectrum-XGS contributions, margins, inventory levels, and customer concentration.

– 10/2: Q3 Delivery Report – Tesla's quarterly delivery and production report will likely confirm the effectiveness of its pricing strategy, regional mix, and inventory levels. Analysts are divided on delivery expectations, creating room for significant stock movement.

– 10/Up to mid-October: FSD v14 Rollout – The rollout of FSD version 14 will be phased, and Tesla will closely monitor user feedback, safety metrics, and potential impacts on subscription rates and average selling prices (ASP), as well as regulatory scrutiny.

– Late October: Q3 Earnings Report – Tesla will report its Q3 earnings, focusing on automotive gross margins (excluding credits), energy segment gross margins, the contribution from Shanghai Megapack, and the penetration of FSD subscriptions.

– 11/6: Annual Shareholder Meeting – Tesla will update shareholders on its long-term strategy, including its ambitions for robots, Robotaxi, and other ventures.

Nvidia: Recently, Nvidia broke through its EMA10 resistance and remains well above its EMA60, confirming a bullish mid-term structure. The chart shows a wedge pattern, with the price repeatedly testing both the upper and lower boundaries.

Tesla: Tesla’s price is supported by its EMA10, but it is moving within a narrow channel and is significantly deviated from its EMA60.

Nvidia’s IV is currently at 39%, which is relatively low (21st percentile historically). This suggests that options premiums are not overly inflated, making it an ideal time for a buyer’s strategy, such as buying calls or puts, if you're looking for volatility-based plays.

Tesla’s IV stands at 68%, placing it in the neutral zone (56th percentile historically), which means the stock is likely to experience normal levels of volatility. Investors holding Tesla shares who are concerned about potential downside risk after upcoming delivery data may want to hedge by selling short-term covered calls.