Nvidia crushes estimates again, but the alarm has been sounded?
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Nvidia's Performance Likely to Exceed Expectation
Nvidia's data center business has the largest revenue share, followed by its gaming, professional visualization, and automotive businesses. It can be said that the performance of the data center and gaming businesses largely determines the overall company performance.
The trend of platform upgrades for accelerated computing and generative AI is expected to continue to drive the rapid growth of Nvidia's data center business. Currently, companies such as Microsoft and Amazon are increasing their capital expenditures, and there is high demand for Nvidia's AI chips. The company's hardware is consistently leading, and the recently released H200 maintains its competitive advantage, while its software ecosystem has high stickiness.
The resurgence of the PC market will help drive sustained growth in Nvidia's gaming business. The company's other businesses have little impact on overall performance.
The ban on selling AI chips to China has no impact on this quarter's performance. The revenue share of the Greater China region is about 20%, mostly from gaming and partly from AI. Considering that Nvidia has also released a downsized version of its chips for the Chinese market, the overall risk appears to be manageable.
Bloomberg's consensus expectations are consistent with the company's guidance, which has a high level of credibility. The company is likely to meet or even exceed its performance guidance. The company's guidance for next quarter's performance and its attitude towards the chip ban in the conference call are also important factors affecting the stock price.
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