Nvidia (NVDA) Growth Trajectory And Consumer GPUs To Look At
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on 26 Feb 2025 after the market close.
Nvidia is set to report a "strong" set of fiscal Q4 results with outlook as investors' confidence has slightly edged up recently, UBS said in a note Tuesday.
I am holding onto my Nvidia position as I see strong momentum in gaming chips demand as developers would be exploring using these chips for model building after DeepSeek show that it is possible to do machine learning at lower cost.
The consensus EPS forecast is estimated to be at $0.798 per share and revenue of about $39.087 billion.
Nvidia (NVDA) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw -4.82% Change Since
Nvidia had a positive earnings call on 20 Nov 2024 but the share price have saw a -4.82% change since.
The earnings call highlighted NVIDIA's robust growth across segments, particularly in Data Center and Gaming, alongside challenges like supply constraints affecting Networking and Gaming. Blackwell's ramp-up is a significant focus, with expected initial gross margin pressure.
Nvidia (NVDA) Guidance Focus On Gross Margins Optimization
During NVIDIA's Q3 2025 earnings call, Colette Kress provided substantial guidance, highlighting a record revenue of $35.1 billion, which surpassed the outlook of $32.5 billion and marked a 17% sequential and 94% year-on-year increase. Data Center revenue was particularly impressive, reaching $30.8 billion, up 17% sequentially and 112% year-on-year. The demand for NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell architectures fueled this growth, with significant sales of the H200 and Blackwell GPUs, the latter of which is expected to exceed previous revenue estimates by several billion dollars. NVIDIA anticipates Q4 2025 revenue to be $37.5 billion, plus or minus 2%, with gross margins projected at 73% GAAP and 73.5% non-GAAP.
Despite supply constraints, especially in gaming, NVIDIA is focused on meeting the market's high demand and optimizing its gross margins as Blackwell products ramp up. The company's commitment to innovation is evident as they prepare for the future with advancements in AI infrastructure and a strong pipeline of AI enterprise solutions.
Here Are Some Critical Factors Influencing Nvidia’s Q4 FY2025 Earnings
AI & Data Center Demand
Growth of AI Accelerators: Nvidia’s data center GPUs (e.g., H100, Blackwell architecture GPUs expected by 2025) will remain pivotal. Adoption by cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) and AI startups will drive revenue.
Software Ecosystem: Revenue from CUDA, AI Enterprise, and Omniverse platforms could become a larger profit driver.
Gaming & Consumer GPUs
Next-Gen GPUs: Performance of RTX 5000-series GPUs (or equivalent) and demand for gaming/workstation GPUs amid PC market trends.
Competition: AMD's RDNA 5 and Intel’s Battlemage GPUs may pressure pricing.
Automotive & Edge AI
Progress in autonomous driving partnerships (e.g., Mercedes, Tesla’s Dojo vs. Nvidia Drive) and edge AI deployments in robotics/industrial IoT.
Supply Chain & Manufacturing
TSMC's advanced node (2nm/3nm) capacity and pricing, plus geopolitical risks (e.g., Taiwan tensions, export controls).
Regulatory Risks
U.S.-China tech restrictions impacting sales of high-end AI chips to Chinese firms.
Macro Environment
Enterprise IT spending cycles, interest rates, and global semiconductor demand.
Potential Bullish Catalysts
AI Monetization: New AI use cases (generative AI, robotics, drug discovery) driving GPU-as-a-service models.
Diversification: Success in networking (Spectrum-X), custom AI chips, or quantum computing initiatives.
Margins: Higher-margin software sales offsetting hardware commoditization risks.
Here Are Some Of The Key Metrics We Might Want To Look At For Nvidia Upcoming Earnings
Data Center Revenue: Nvidia's data center segment has been a major growth driver, fueled by the increasing demand for its GPUs in AI applications, cloud computing, and high-performance computing. Investors will be closely watching for continued strength in this segment, particularly in the face of potential competition and evolving market dynamics.
Gaming Revenue: While the data center segment has been the star performer, Nvidia's gaming business remains significant. The company's new GeForce RTX GPUs and the growing popularity of AI-powered gaming technologies could contribute to growth in this segment.
Gross Margins: Nvidia's gross margins have been healthy, reflecting the strong demand for its products and its pricing power. Investors will be looking for any indications of changes in gross margins, which could signal shifts in the competitive landscape or product mix.
Forward Guidance: In addition to the actual results, Nvidia's forward guidance will be closely scrutinized. Investors will be eager to hear the company's outlook for the next quarter and the full fiscal year, as this will provide clues about the company's expectations for future growth.
AI Market Dynamics: The AI market is dynamic, with new players emerging and existing players constantly innovating. Investors will be interested in Nvidia's commentary on the overall AI market, including trends, challenges, and opportunities.
Nvidia (NVDA) Price Target
Based on 39 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nvidia in the last 3 months. The average price target is $179.11 with a high forecast of $220.00 and a low forecast of $135.00. The average price target represents a 28.39% change from the last price of $139.23.
Analysts are generally optimistic about Nvidia's prospects, citing the company's strong position in the AI market and its innovative product portfolio. However, there are also some concerns about potential competition and the sustainability of the company's rapid growth.
Here Are Some Potential Bearish Risks
Market Saturation: Slowing data center spending after 2023–2024’s hyperscaler capex surge.
Competition: Custom AI chips from Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium), and open-source alternatives (RISC-V).
Valuation: High P/E ratios may leave little room for error if growth slows.
One of the things we need to look out for is how the guidance on Nvidia’s Q3 FY2025 earnings call have seen Nvidia having a negative share price change since. This could signal that Nvidia is navigating some challenges.
Next, we might want to look at the industry reports on TSMC’s capacity forecasts, cloud providers’ capex guidance, and AI adoption metrics, lastly and the most important one is the impact on the changes in U.S. export policies or China’s domestic chip progress.
Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
As we have seen how Nvidia have been on a strong momentum since it show a RSI crossover on 05 Feb, though we are seeing a signs on decline yesterday but the bulls are still in control as they have successfully make the daily trend expansion.
We are also seeing RSI picking up to indicate that the buying sentiment is starting to grow prior to Nvidia earnings, I would expect Nvidia to show some small correction before its earnings next week, as investors might want to adjust their portfolio.
Summary
Nvidia's Q4 FY2025 results will hinge on whether it maintains dominance in AI infrastructure while diversifying into software and new markets.
By 2025, the AI boom may mature, so investors will scrutinize recurring revenue streams and market share retention. I think closer to the date, we might want to monitor what the management commentary on Inventory levels for data center GPUs, R&D spend for next-gen architectures (e.g., Blackwell successors) and Regulatory impacts on global sales.
I believe that Nvidia is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory. The company's leadership in AI hardware and software, its strong relationships with key customers, and its continuous innovation should enable it to capitalize on the growing demand for AI solutions.
However, we should also be mindful of the risks, including competition, potential supply chain disruptions, and the inherent uncertainties of the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Nvidia would be able to show continued growth trajectory with strong growing demand for its AI solutions.
Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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财神爷99我 : Long-term Call, short-term bearish.
nerdbull1669 OP 财神爷99我 : agreed, so play short term put
Handiyanan : NVDA's stock is on a tear since Feb 5th, but the article warns of a possible correction before earnings. Do you *really* trust chart patterns here, or is this just noise?
Keiith : Is this a ‘buy the dip’ moment if earnings dip slightly?
JoanFishers : Are we ignoring the risk of a ‘bubble pop’ if guidance isn’t perfect?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Bachelor (M) 财神爷99我 : yup
105332979 : To determine which stocks will growth in the future, you can look at science fiction movies. What are the most common things in these movies? AI, robots, advanced medical equipment, or meds？Basically all of these are inseparable from advanced chips
nerdbull1669 OP 105332979 : Thank you for your comment, actually AI is already part of our lifestyle, from online purchase to many other things, we just need to use and experience it!
nerdbull1669 OP JoanFishers : Thank you for the comment, actually if we looked at the long term AI potential, it is already here, but short-term volatility present opportunity actually, so guidance imperfect might be short-term?
nerdbull1669 OP Keiith : Thank you for your comment, I see the dip as an opportunity to get in, like what I did when the selloff happened in August 2024, that is the time I get onto Nvidia.
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