NVIDIA is heading for earnings on 02/25/2026

NVIDIA (NVDA) is heading into its Q4 FY2026 earnings on February 25, 2026 (after market close), and the setup looks constructive despite the recent stock pullback.

Current snapshot as of mid-February 2026: The stock is trading around $183, down about 2.2% recently and roughly 13-14% off the 52-week high near $212. Market cap sits at approximately $4.5 trillion. Year-to-date performance is roughly flat to slightly negative amid broader tech rotation, AI spending concerns, and macro uncertainty. Valuation has compressed nicely – forward P/E is now in the 35-40x range on 2026-2027 estimates, a lot more reasonable than the 45x+ trailing multiple we saw earlier. This creates a better risk/reward heading into the print.

Earnings expectations: NVIDIA guided Q4 revenue to $65 billion plus or minus 2% in the November Q3 report. Wall Street is looking for a solid beat with consensus revenue at $65.6 billion (up 67% year-over-year), and many analysts see $66-67.5 billion possible thanks to full-rack Blackwell momentum and software upside. Adjusted EPS consensus is $1.52 (up 71% YoY), with estimates ranging from $1.49 to $1.59. Data Center revenue is modeled around $58-59 billion, still growing 65%+. Gross margins should hold elite levels at 70% or better.

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NVIDIA has a long beat-and-raise streak. Most previews from Seeking Alpha, TipRanks, UBS, Wolfe, and others expect another strong print, with potential upside from China if H200 approvals materialize (could add a few billion).

Key things to watch: First, Blackwell ramp and demand visibility – Jensen Huang already called Blackwell sales “off the charts” last quarter. Investors want confirmation of full-rack solutions, CUDA software growth, and any early traction on Rubin (next-gen). The company reportedly has over $500 billion in combined Blackwell/Rubin visibility through 2026 – any beat here would be massive.

Second, Q1 FY2027 guidance is the biggest swing factor. Street is modeling $70-72 billion; anything $74-76 billion+ (especially with China returning) could light the stock on fire.

Third, hyperscaler CapEx confirmation – Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle are all guiding huge AI spend in 2026-2027. Any positive color removes lingering “AI bubble” fears.

Fourth, China update – export restrictions hurt 2025, but potential H200 approvals could bring meaningful revenue back in 2026.

Fifth, margins and competition – gross margins stay elite, and while AMD gains some share, NVIDIA’s CUDA moat remains dominant.

Options are pricing in an 8-10% post-earnings move (typical for NVDA). Historical IV crush averages around 18% afterward, so expect big swings either way.

Bull case (most likely): Strong beat plus confident guide sends the stock 10-15% higher right away, re-rating toward $220-250 quickly. Analyst average target sits around $260, implying about 42% upside from here. AI infrastructure spend is still red-hot.

Bear case (lower probability): In-line or light guidance (rare for NVIDIA) triggers a 10%+ selloff on renewed “peak AI” worries. Macro volatility could amplify any disappointment.

Bottom line: NVDA is in a healthy reset after a monster run. Demand signals from partners like Vertiv and from hyperscalers remain extremely strong. The stock is cheaper on forward earnings than it’s been in a while, and the AI secular tailwind is fully intact.

Heading into earnings, the risk/reward skews bullish. A clean report with confident 2026 commentary should reignite the uptrend. If you’re long-term bullish on AI, this dip has been a gift.

Always manage risk—NVDA moves big on earnings. I took profits on a large position before the recent pullback but held onto 100 shares. Right now, I believe it’s the strongest stock in the market. Drop a comment: are you bullish on the Diva of stocks?

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