NVIDIA ER. My View

Current Price: $179.810 (Aug 25, 2025)
Earnings Date: Wednesday, Aug 27, after market close

What to Know
Street Expectations: EPS ~$1.01, revenue ~$46B (≈50% YoY growth).
High Wall Street Bullishness: Analysts are overwhelmingly positive—out of around 13–14 surveyed, 12–13 rate NVDA a "Buy", with price targets ranging from $200 to $225+, and an average target near $203–$199
China Headwind: Export restrictions could hamper China sales in Q2. However, Nvidia secured a 15% revenue-sharing agreement with the U.S. for H20 chip sales, potentially mitigating some losses. Analysts expect China-related revenues to return in the second half of 2025
Options Market: Pricing in ±6.4% move (historically ~±8%). Post-earnings range implied: $168–$191.

Risks & Technicals
RSI overbought (~73), momentum cooling, volume fading – signals near-term exhaustion.
NVDA is ~8% of the S&P 500: a miss could weigh on the entire market.
Valuation Concerns: Despite growth, some investors and fund managers warn the stock is richly valued with limited margin for error, urging valuation discipline amid AI hype

What I would be doing
- Pre-Earnings: Hold current exposure. Do not chase here. Risk/reward is skewed. Consider hedges (defined-risk option spreads).
- If Beat + Strong Guidance: Scale in up to 15–20% fund exposure, targeting $200–$225.
- If Miss or Weak Guide: Trim into strength, rotate capital into defensives or other AI names with better entry points.

Bottom Line
Current Stance: Hold for now. The risk from sky-high expectations makes going in heavy premature.
Approach: Stay nimble. Use hedges or partial positions to manage tail risk from possible earnings-driven pullback.
Watch points:
- EPS and revenue delivery vs. the ~$1.01 and ~$46B consensus.
- Q3 guidance and commentary around China demand and new product (e.g., GB300, Rubin chips).
- Market reaction and volatility—be ready to act swiftly.

Hope you guys enjoy this kind of post! If you do, drop a comment and hit follow. I’ll keep sharing more like this.