Nvidia Earnings Q4 2024 Outlook: Analysis and View
Earnings
Prior to the earnings call next Wednesday (26 February), NVIDIA outlook is optimistic with caution. The company demonstrated impressive revenue growth of 125.85% ($60.92 billion) over the last 12 months with industry- leading gross margins of 72.72% (+27.73% YoY). The projected revenue and EPS are as follows:
Q4 FY25 Q1 FY26
Revenue $38.087B $41.977B EPS 0.798 9.871
Chart 1: Revenues (annual)
Q4 FY25 Q1 FY26
Revenue $38.087B $41.977B EPS 0.798 9.871
Chart 1: Revenues (annual)
Chart 2: Gross margin (annual)
Chart 3: Revenue (quarter)
Chart 4: EPS (quarter)
According to Investing.com, for the Q1 and Q2 of FY26, sales forecasts of $42.2 billion and $55.4 billion, respectively, are also higher than the consensus estimates, suggesting a strong outlook for the first half of FY26 despite the ongoing supply side issues.
Negative sentiment
The market attention might shift towards the momentum of Blackwell (B200) revenue rather than overall sales momentum. The greatest challenge is still DeepSeek which is contemplating using data centers in Southeast Asia to access more Nvidia AI chips to meet its growing infrastructure needs.
Fair valuation
P/E ratio is 54.97 +26% (3 yrs percentile) above industry average. Morningstar Research gave a 3/5 star rating with a fair value of 130 USD -6.35% of the current price. It commented that the share price is facing high uncertainty and the pull back is healthy. You can read the full analyst report of the stock found in Moomoo.
Chart 5: Company valuation - P/E ratio
Negative sentiment
The market attention might shift towards the momentum of Blackwell (B200) revenue rather than overall sales momentum. The greatest challenge is still DeepSeek which is contemplating using data centers in Southeast Asia to access more Nvidia AI chips to meet its growing infrastructure needs.
Fair valuation
P/E ratio is 54.97 +26% (3 yrs percentile) above industry average. Morningstar Research gave a 3/5 star rating with a fair value of 130 USD -6.35% of the current price. It commented that the share price is facing high uncertainty and the pull back is healthy. You can read the full analyst report of the stock found in Moomoo.
Chart 5: Company valuation - P/E ratio
Chart 6: Morningstar Research
Consensus analyst rating is 97.8% strong buy. The latest target price UBS maintained at 185 and HSBC lowered from 185 to 175.
Chart 7: Analyst rating - Consensus rating and Target price
Chart 7: Analyst rating - Consensus rating and Target price
My Take
Share price may drop after earnings call is a reflection of the general investor's sentiment and risk consideration in the short term. For the longer term, the company's fundamentals have not changed and the financial status remains healthy. Any trading decision should be based on your risk appetite and investment plan.
Source:
1. All charts shared are from Moomoo.
2. HSBC cuts NVIDIA stock price target to $175, maintains Buy -Investing.com
Share price may drop after earnings call is a reflection of the general investor's sentiment and risk consideration in the short term. For the longer term, the company's fundamentals have not changed and the financial status remains healthy. Any trading decision should be based on your risk appetite and investment plan.
Source:
1. All charts shared are from Moomoo.
2. HSBC cuts NVIDIA stock price target to $175, maintains Buy -Investing.com
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ZnWC
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I reflect trading experience by writing journals. My posts and comments are for education purpose not financial advice.
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Handiyanan : Yo, NVDA's gross margins are insane at 72%! But how sustainable is this with competition like DeepSeek and supply chain issues? Seems too good to last, no?
Keiith : isn’t this stock a ticking time bomb for rookies?
JoanFishers : mixed signals? Feels like nobody really knows where this is headed lol
ZnWC OP Keiith : It depends on how you manage the risk and your investment plan. Like any stock, we invest based on our risk appetite.