Nvidia Earnings Preview: High Demand Persists, Amid Rising Market Complexities
DeepSeek achieved a breakthrough in AI performance, causing NVIDIA's stock price to plummet 16.97% on January 27th. Despite this, major tech companies have not reduced their investment plans in the AI sector and continue to bet on NVIDIA's technological advantages.
NVIDIA began its rebound on February 3rd, reclaiming lost ground in just 16 trading days. Over a one-year period, NVIDIA is up 106%, remaining the top performer in the M7.
Nvidia is scheduled to release its financial results post-market on February 26 ET. Analysts estimate Nvidia to post revenue of USD38.13B for 2025Q4 (ending on January 27, 2025), up 72.52% YOY; EPS is estimated to be USD0.80, up 61.83% YOY.
All eyes on AI data center revenue growth
Based on Visible Alpha consensus, Data Center revenue estimates in Q4 2025 range from $31.8 billion to $38.1 billion. This growth is fueled by high GPU demand from cloud providers and the shift to AI-driven accelerated computing in data centers.
• Blackwell's ramp-up continues to be a key area of focus
There is modest concern at a more restrictive geopolitical AI landscape that could impact sovereign AI spending, and a near-term debate about a Blackwell transition.
According to HSBC's analysis, GB200 racks assembly is still progressing slowly but should gradually ramp up in 2Q25 with improved yield rates. The bank's research indicates that Nvidia has some initial plans to shift production to B300 and GB300 from mid-2025e, with racks assembly likely to be ready in late 2025.
Due to differing views about the potential for Blackwell, the estimates for data center range from $152.4 billion to $236.0 billion and remain a significant market debate, due to the questions around Blackwell’s ramp.
It will be important to see how Nvidia guides the market for Q1 and for FY2026, and to what extent new AI infrastructure projects, like Stargate, will support continued demand.
• The impact of DeepSeek has dual aspects
DeepSeek has provided a method to train large models with performance comparable to industry giants like OpenAI at extremely low cost, which has a somewhat bearish impact on the growing demand for training computational power. However, at the same time, the Jevons paradox - lower application costs leading to a more prosperous application ecosystem - will ultimately result in the AI industry requiring more computational power, especially on the inference side.
So, from the perspective of overall computational power, DeepSeek's impact may be positive. But from a market share perspective, the heavily optimized DeepSeek's adaptability to run on weaker hardware and computing chips with lower memory bandwidth, such as those from Huawei, potentially reduces the long-term expectations for NVIDIA's share in the entire AI computing market.
• Tech giants’ capex outlook still supports resilient AI hardware demand
Despite cheaper AI application competition, cloud service providers' latest investment outlooks indicate confidence in continued end-market spending.
Focusing only on the three major CSPs and Meta, the capital expenditure for 2025 is estimated to be approximately $320 billion (Amazon ~ $104B, Microsoft ~ $80B, Google ~ $75B, Met ~ $60B-$65B), representing a year-over-year increase of 44%.
If Oracle, Tesla, and xAI are added, it could potentially increase by at least several tens of billions each year. Furthermore, Stargate's $500 billion over four years is also a significant increment, although the pace and scale are still subject to questioning.
Alibaba's report showed positive signs: quarterly capex hit 31.8 billion RMB, up 80% QoQ. They plan to invest more in cloud and AI infrastructure in the next 3 years than in the past 10.
Also, don't forget NVIDIA-backed second-tier GPU cloud providers, who'll continue to be strong buyers.
The underlying concern is that if AI products fail to monetize as expected and cannot effectively drive the revenue growth of CSP cloud businesses, there is a high probability that the scale of capital expenditure growth by tech giants will slow down.
• ASIC does not seem to be a concern
Morgan Stanley believes NVIDIA maintains a strong competitive edge in the AI chip market despite cheaper alternatives. This is due to NVIDIA's lower total system costs, powerful software ecosystem (especially CUDA), and comprehensive solutions. These factors often lead customers to return to NVIDIA after trying competitors, solidifying its market dominance.
Other points of focus
1. Software. NVIDIA has significantly accelerated its strategic layout in the software sector in recent years, demonstrating diversified progress especially in AI development tools, robotic operating systems, simulation platforms, and vertical application scenarios. If NVIDIA could further disclose the progress and plans of its software business, enhancing the potential for future revenue generation from software, it would contribute to the company's long-term growth and valuation stability.
2. GTC. Nvidia has announced that CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote focused on AI innovations at GTC 2025, scheduled for March 18th as part of the broader conference taking place from March 16th to 21st in San Jose, California. Market expectations for Huang's keynote include updates on the GB300 server and new architecture, focusing on performance and efficiency. Topics may cover AI agents, robotics, and accelerated computing advancements. Practical AI applications in healthcare, autonomous driving, and finance are also anticipated, demonstrating GPU acceleration for scientific computing and optimized AI model deployment.
3. Option signals. Please read: Alibaba, NVIDIA Earnings Loom: DeepSeek's Impact Echoes in Options Market Signal？
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Gold price hits new high! Safe havens in a turbulent market?
🎙️Discussion 1. The spot gold price has soared to a new high, with numerous institutions raising their gold price forecasts, would you be m
Riddick705
Apr 9 22:07
Dont Get Smoked!
10baggerbamm : here's the problems
Amazon during their conference call was discussing their AWS and they mentioned we're anxiously awaiting receiving our Blackwell were first in line.. it's pretty much a direct quote if you want the exact one you can go on moo moo and listen to the conference call or read the transcript.
so what is the takeaway well first in line means they were the first to order and they haven't received Blackwell yet... what does that mean that a person second in line when I say person I mean hyperscalers or very large companies or countries sovereign Nations.. basic logic would say second and third and 4th and 5th in line haven't received theirs either
additionally earlier in this week there was a research report that came out and a very well-known semianalist who's on X said that he was calling Dell's customers and they have not yet received their Blackwell servers none of them.
what does that mean
it means Blackwell's not shipping I know what Jensen said I got all excited just like everybody else at CES what he discussed in the 4th quarter during the conference call what he discussed I get it all of the reports in Q3 going into Q4 that Blackwell wasn't shipping that it's running hot we all heard it I don't need to go into it people hate Nvidia they're short and video they put these bullshit reports out there.
all that said Amazon has not yet received theirs as of the conference call and dells high-end server customers that have orders waiting better built around Blackwell they don't have anything yet.. nothing
I said with Tesla if you can't make your delivery numbers you're not going to make your quarter it's very basic deduction well kind of works the same way with Nvidia
if your customers are not receiving Blackwell and from their mouth directly they're still awaiting receipt we're anxiously awaiting receipt and if Dell's customers have ordered servers running on Blackwell and they haven't received them yet
nvidia's revenues derived from Blackwell are going to miss
I hear all these bobbleheads on TV say well it really doesn't matter if it gets pushed from 4th quarter to first quarter because they're still going to book it
problem I have is if your revenues or Penny light if your earnings are a penny light they kill the stock that's what happens nobody is rewarded for pushing orders off to the next quarter your penalized plain and simple
I want to be out of my Nvidia before the earnings I was hoping.... but this week we would be 145 -147 but that doesn't look like it's going to happen....
Dan C9 : high demand from paper launch
Chak : For sure, there are questions why we need the high advanced blackwell chips. deepseek is able to build superior models using earlier cheaper versions of the chip, but that deep sick news is there going to be any clarification about that in the earnings call by the CEO? what is he going to say he’s not going to put sn ax on his own foot and companies foot ? He obviously want to say backwell is the superior chip.
sunwu79 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Nephellium : Nvda will continue its upward projectory inspite of the competition. Nvda has withstood the test of time and can sustain growth regardless of the challenges.
104942273 :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
73372627 Chak : The answer it is: Deep Seek it is an very limited model. I do not understand this polemics about not need for more powerful chips? Maybe the Chinese could train for specific with less powerful chips like H series. But AFTER? you need power to can apply the AI. Guys, if you think Deep Seek will change the face of AI, you are far away from the reality. No model could affect Nvidia, because they are far ahead. Second you the fun's of this Deep Shit, wait the NVidia Software Department to come with an really product addapted for the Nvidia chips.
sooogod : Market demand is not complicated but diversified. The beginning of the comprehensive popularity of AI has already shown signals.
AI is no longer the monopoly of the big seven; the next step will be its popularization in small and medium-sized enterprises and markets.
Only after the popularization of AI will the real big market arrive.
The emergence of DeepSeek has shown NVIDIA a signal of explosive growth; when AI is popularized, NVIDIA will become the dominator. However, the current big seven will face hundreds or even thousands of new DeepSeek challenges.
Regardless, the shovel seller NVIDIA will be the long-term winner of this gold rush, and I am quite sure that NVIDIA, after receiving Microsoft's reduction in AI investment, will fully push AI toward society. The first step may be to provide services to a wider society through flexible and Low Stock Price small and medium-sized Datacenters like Nebius.
In conclusion, the big seven may hear the worst news, but NVIDIA will laugh last.
sooogod 73372627 : DeepSeek is a great thing; you will have tens of thousands of DeepSeek in the future. The phenomenon of DS indicates that there are already signals of AI becoming widespread. The market scale of this proliferation is hundreds or thousands of times larger than it is now. This is why Lao Huang is very happy.
Chak : bs news man , dont get your hopes high, it might dump
one lil thing the algos will dump