Nvidia and AI supply chain near-term share price views

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ 1. Based on their assumptions about Nvidia’s CoWoS shipments and payment terms, some of the investors I spoke with expect Nvidia to offer the Q3 revenue guidance of $16.5–17.5 billion. So when the media reported that Nvidia’s financial guidance beat the market consensus, it was actually lower than expected for these investors.
2. From a fundamental point of view, Nvidia’s CoWoS shipment QoQ growth rate in the fourth quarter will slow down significantly to about flat. I believe that, at least for some short-term traders, this is not a positive signal, especially since the stock price has soared.
3. Another short-term factor affecting AI stock prices is that when ChatGPT traffic declines significantly, no business model for AI service demonstrates sustainable profitability. In addition to Nvidia’s AI chip shipments, the impact of this issue on AI stocks will gradually increase in the foreseeable future.
4. In the short term, more investors are expected to take profits away from AI supply chain stocks that have soared. However, as the positive trend of AI is still there (and investors may have no other better investment choices in industries), investors are still actively looking for beneficiaries whose stock prices have not yet reflected the positive trend of AI.