Nebius Q4 Preview: EBITDA Could Turn Positive, and the Real Test of Execution Is Just Beginning

$NEBIUS (NBIS.US)$ is scheduled to report 4Q25 and FY25 on Feb 12, 2026, pre-market, followed by a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET.

The most important output from this event is whether management can translate power/GPU buildout into a credible, time-stamped revenue ramp that matches what the market is already paying for.

Key Financial Setup

Consensus numbers vary by data vendor and accounting basis, but the broad setup is:

– Q4 revenue consensus: around 249M (implies roughly +70% QoQ vs Q3’s $146.1M)

– Adjusted EBITDA: 33M (the Group turned positive for the first time on a quarterly basis)

Three Things to Watch

The real “pricing event”: 2026 guidance

In Q3's earnings report, the CEO, Mr. Volozh, confirmed that NBIS would achieve $7-9 billion in ARR, and 800MW-1GW connected power by the end of 2026.

So we would expect the market to react positively if the company provide:

– Higher 2026 full-year ARR guidance, or actual revenue guidance （Nebius has described its ARR (annualized run-rate revenue) as a mechanical metric: the last month’s revenue in the quarter × 12）.

– Updated expectations for power brought online (“connected power”).

– Timing on incremental clusters/data halls going live. The management will likely give some updates on Nebius' Finnish data center phases, which were scheduled for December, and the launch of the New Jersey and London facilities.

– Any change to GPU procurement, deployment cadence, or customer onboarding speed.

The mega-deal angle

Nebius has discussed very large multi-year customer. Strategically, big deals do two things:

– Bull case: better revenue visibility + financing support for buildout (contracts can help unlock debt/asset-backed financing).

– Bear case: higher customer concentration and delivery obligation risk; if ramp slips, downside to credibility is amplified.

Valuation framing

Valuation remains another risk for investors. Nebius often looks optically expensive on FY25 sales, because the market is trying to underwrite a 2026–2027 denominator expansion.

If the 2026/2027 revenue ramp is credible and on track, the P/S compresses rapidly via revenue growth, even without near-term profitability.

Looking at EV divided by installed power capacity, Bernstein’s report shows that NBIS’s valuation is also slightly higher than CRWV’s. This may be because the market expects Nebius to deliver stronger growth, or to have a more solid financial profile, among other reasons.

Option Playbook

Nebius options show implied volatility around 99%, which is elevated. The options market is pricing roughly a ±10% move around earnings; given the typical post-earnings IV crush, premium-selling strategies look more attractive right now.

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