Ongoing observation of the June 5 NVTS

11 AM Order Flow Update: Shorts have pulled their main defensive line back to around 27.5 and are using iceberg orders at the bid to hold back longs. I interpret this as a sign of weakening short momentum. However, longs have also retreated their main defensive line to 26 and placed iceberg orders at the offer to absorb sell pressure. I need to closely monitor Delta changes—someone might be accumulating positions.

12:09 AM Observation Update:

Shorts' first line of defense: 26.5 (just posted at 12:10 AM), second line: 26.7, third line: 27.5, totaling 31K shares in sell orders.

Bulls' first line of defense: 25.4 (posted at 12:11 AM with a cumulative 25K buy orders); second line at 25 (cumulative 35K buy orders). The second line appears unstable, with orders frequently posted and then canceled, making it impossible to fully rule out spoofing.

On the buy side, there are an additional 3–4 iceberg orders positioned between the current market price and the first defensive line as buffers. Their total size is unquantifiable; I can only record the volume they’ve already revealed.

Conclusion: Selling pressure has weakened, and buyers now have the capacity to hold their ground. Macro-wise, price is clearly filling the large FVG created on June 3, and we are already observing distribution shifting from higher levels toward the three-day VAL (Value Area Low). This actually increases the momentum for price to revert toward the three-day POC at 31. Micro-wise, bullish order volume consistently exceeds bearish volume, demonstrating strong defensive capability. Moreover, aggressive selling from bears is diminishing, with negative delta tightening—indicating waning bearish strength. However, bulls remain constrained by the broader semiconductor sector; while actively defending, they are passively offensive, showing almost no attempts to counterattack the bears’ front lines. This has led my algorithm to detect virtually no iceberg orders on the short side—a clear sign of how lethargic and ineffective the bulls’ retaliation currently is.

Although I’ve seen many brave traders in the comments section already stepping in to buy the dip, I’m still choosing to observe. I do believe this is indeed a bottom, but the risk of entering now remains too high without clearer confirmation signals. I will wait until I see bulls initiating counterattacks on shorter timeframes before considering establishing a position. This decision stems from balancing reward against risk—taking on additional exposure for marginal excess returns simply isn’t worth it. Personal opinion only, not investment advice.

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