Must-read! What happened last week? Where is the focus of the current market?
This week's outlook:
Trump imposes tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland:
Because the market was closed Monday for a holiday, this news directly impacted the U.S. stock market on Tuesday, leading to a triple meltdown in stocks, bonds, and currency, while precious metals surged (Goldman Sachs also raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400. Central bank demand continues to rise, indicating that gold and other precious metals will see substantial gains ahead). Soon after, Trump made another TACO, delaying tariffs on European countries opposing his acquisition of Greenland, citing what he described as an agreement framework concerning the future of the island and the entire Arctic region. Reports suggest that under the agreement, Denmark would cede sovereignty over a small piece of land in Greenland to the U.S. for the construction of a military base.
Trump builds his own 'United Nations'; nations must contribute at least $10 billion for a permanent seat on Trump's Peace Committee.
Among the approximately 50 leaders reportedly invited, around 35 have accepted. Putin claims Russia is willing to provide $10 billion from Russian assets frozen by the previous U.S. administration to the 'Peace Committee,' while Macron has declined. Meanwhile, the Trump administration assesses that Cuba's economy is on the brink of collapse. After losing Maduro as a key supporter, the Cuban government has never been so vulnerable. The Trump administration is seeking insiders within the Cuban government, hoping to 'push for regime change' in Cuba by the end of the year. What does this indicate? Since Trump began swiftly addressing Venezuela, this $10 billion has effectively become a 'protection fee,' pressuring smaller nations to join the Peace Committee for 'security.' Mid-sized countries are quickly banding together and taking sides. As for Europe:
Multiple European countries are beginning to attempt decoupling from the US:
Europe's right-wing hopes to establish a United States of Europe. Influenced by the Greenland incident, Denmark has started selling off US Treasuries, and Sweden’s giant pension fund has liquidated most of its US Treasury holdings. Poland’s central bank has approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold. It can be seen that there is currently a coordinated trend in Europe: selling US Treasuries and increasing gold reserves. Europe is starting to realize that if it cannot unite, it will not survive between China and the US. Finnish Prime Minister Orpo will visit China, and Canadian Prime Minister Carney, after visiting China recently, said that the world has changed significantly in recent years. He also noted that the development of Canada-China relations in recent months has become more predictable. Therefore, it is clear that global capital in the future will be more concentrated in China and the US, fleeing all other uncertain markets.
Trump imposes tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland:
Because the market was closed Monday for a holiday, this news directly impacted the U.S. stock market on Tuesday, leading to a triple meltdown in stocks, bonds, and currency, while precious metals surged (Goldman Sachs also raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400. Central bank demand continues to rise, indicating that gold and other precious metals will see substantial gains ahead). Soon after, Trump made another TACO, delaying tariffs on European countries opposing his acquisition of Greenland, citing what he described as an agreement framework concerning the future of the island and the entire Arctic region. Reports suggest that under the agreement, Denmark would cede sovereignty over a small piece of land in Greenland to the U.S. for the construction of a military base.
Trump builds his own 'United Nations'; nations must contribute at least $10 billion for a permanent seat on Trump's Peace Committee.
Among the approximately 50 leaders reportedly invited, around 35 have accepted. Putin claims Russia is willing to provide $10 billion from Russian assets frozen by the previous U.S. administration to the 'Peace Committee,' while Macron has declined. Meanwhile, the Trump administration assesses that Cuba's economy is on the brink of collapse. After losing Maduro as a key supporter, the Cuban government has never been so vulnerable. The Trump administration is seeking insiders within the Cuban government, hoping to 'push for regime change' in Cuba by the end of the year. What does this indicate? Since Trump began swiftly addressing Venezuela, this $10 billion has effectively become a 'protection fee,' pressuring smaller nations to join the Peace Committee for 'security.' Mid-sized countries are quickly banding together and taking sides. As for Europe:
Multiple European countries are beginning to attempt decoupling from the US:
Europe's right-wing hopes to establish a United States of Europe. Influenced by the Greenland incident, Denmark has started selling off US Treasuries, and Sweden’s giant pension fund has liquidated most of its US Treasury holdings. Poland’s central bank has approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold. It can be seen that there is currently a coordinated trend in Europe: selling US Treasuries and increasing gold reserves. Europe is starting to realize that if it cannot unite, it will not survive between China and the US. Finnish Prime Minister Orpo will visit China, and Canadian Prime Minister Carney, after visiting China recently, said that the world has changed significantly in recent years. He also noted that the development of Canada-China relations in recent months has become more predictable. Therefore, it is clear that global capital in the future will be more concentrated in China and the US, fleeing all other uncertain markets.
Regarding the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair, Trump intensifies his pressure on the Fed:
Trump's stance shifts as he expresses a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position. Trump initiates hearings on the Cook dismissal case, wanting to fire Cook, while Powell will appear in court to support Cook. If there is any real uncertainty surrounding Cook, the US stock market may experience another major shock. The government’s stance could 'shatter' the independence of the Federal Reserve with long-term consequences, potentially triggering a market frenzy over liquidity expectations. Trump claims he will soon announce his choice for the new Fed Chair but worries about potential disloyalty once they assume office.
H200 banned by Chinese customs
Reuters reports: Chinese customs have prohibited the import of H200 chips. Chinese officials have issued stern warnings to companies: unless absolutely necessary, chip purchases are prohibited.
Trump's stance shifts as he expresses a desire for Hassett to remain in his current position. Trump initiates hearings on the Cook dismissal case, wanting to fire Cook, while Powell will appear in court to support Cook. If there is any real uncertainty surrounding Cook, the US stock market may experience another major shock. The government’s stance could 'shatter' the independence of the Federal Reserve with long-term consequences, potentially triggering a market frenzy over liquidity expectations. Trump claims he will soon announce his choice for the new Fed Chair but worries about potential disloyalty once they assume office.
H200 banned by Chinese customs
Reuters reports: Chinese customs have prohibited the import of H200 chips. Chinese officials have issued stern warnings to companies: unless absolutely necessary, chip purchases are prohibited.
Current market focus: Geopolitics/Metals Sector > Appointment of Fed Chair > Earnings Season (Increased attention on valuation issues) > Others
The current market trend is shifting towards a macro narrative rather than individual stock stories. Meanwhile, the industry is entering a critical validation period for 'AI input-output.' The Q4 earnings season has brought up valuation concerns that were absent in Q3, which will significantly increase the attention on this round of earnings reports!
The current market trend is shifting towards a macro narrative rather than individual stock stories. Meanwhile, the industry is entering a critical validation period for 'AI input-output.' The Q4 earnings season has brought up valuation concerns that were absent in Q3, which will significantly increase the attention on this round of earnings reports!

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