A must-read! Why is the current market so uncertain? This article will help you clarify the situation!
Follow-up on the Greenland incident: If the US and Europe were to clash, could Europe really utilize its $12.6 trillion in US assets?
Deutsche Bank's research report:The sell-off of US Treasuries by Europe could become a major weapon against the US. This report states that Europe is the largest lender to the US, holding $12.6 trillion in assets. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot weaponize these assets because a portion of them are held by non-government entities. Many assets are owned by investors from other regions who use European instruments to hold these dollar assets, along with a significant share of the private sector—except for Norway's sovereign wealth fund. Even if they were sold, who would take over these assets? Therefore, a large-scale sell-off might lead to a rapid appreciation of the euro, triggering an economic recession in Europe itself. Both economies would face 'mutually assured destruction,' making direct confrontation unlikely.
Bessent criticized this report and stated: Europe dares not sell off US Treasuries. Trump said: If they insist on doing so, he would launch massive retaliation. Later, the head of Deutsche Bank apologized to Bessent. However, this action would only drive the ECB to buy more gold and sell US Treasuries at a faster pace (India has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, moving further away from dollar-denominated assets while buying gold).
However, it’s important to note about gold: Despite the current bullish market conditions, attention must be paid! There is a severe price gap between gold futures and spot prices, with futures jumping too quickly, especially COMEX gold, which could potentially cause delivery issues due to insufficient physical supply, leading to a crisis. The same applies to silver!
Deutsche Bank's research report:The sell-off of US Treasuries by Europe could become a major weapon against the US. This report states that Europe is the largest lender to the US, holding $12.6 trillion in assets. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) cannot weaponize these assets because a portion of them are held by non-government entities. Many assets are owned by investors from other regions who use European instruments to hold these dollar assets, along with a significant share of the private sector—except for Norway's sovereign wealth fund. Even if they were sold, who would take over these assets? Therefore, a large-scale sell-off might lead to a rapid appreciation of the euro, triggering an economic recession in Europe itself. Both economies would face 'mutually assured destruction,' making direct confrontation unlikely.
Bessent criticized this report and stated: Europe dares not sell off US Treasuries. Trump said: If they insist on doing so, he would launch massive retaliation. Later, the head of Deutsche Bank apologized to Bessent. However, this action would only drive the ECB to buy more gold and sell US Treasuries at a faster pace (India has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries, moving further away from dollar-denominated assets while buying gold).
However, it’s important to note about gold: Despite the current bullish market conditions, attention must be paid! There is a severe price gap between gold futures and spot prices, with futures jumping too quickly, especially COMEX gold, which could potentially cause delivery issues due to insufficient physical supply, leading to a crisis. The same applies to silver!
Trump administration removes key officials focused on China's tech threat, Departed employees previously worked at the US Department of Commerce
Trump ousted two officials who were focused on weakening China's technological threat. These officials held key positions in restricting Chinese automobiles from entering the US market. (Tensions between China and the US have eased, with relations stabilizing)
Trump ousted two officials who were focused on weakening China's technological threat. These officials held key positions in restricting Chinese automobiles from entering the US market. (Tensions between China and the US have eased, with relations stabilizing)
Japan's 40-year government bond yield broke through 4% for the first time, with traders selling sovereign debt ahead of Japan's general election. The US is supporting Takako Hachioji by manipulating the exchange rate:
Japan's government bond crisis and external interventions have emerged after Sanae Takamichi took office. Takamichi intends to call for early elections in an effort to consolidate personal power. The yield on Japan’s 40-year government bonds has surged past 4%, raising global concerns over fiscal risks. The Federal Reserve is suspected of intervening in the currency market to support the yen. Japan's fiscal expansion is exacerbating debt risks, and soaring government bond yields could impact global bonds, particularly affecting US Treasuries. For instance, the simultaneous decline in US stocks, bonds, and currency two Tuesdays ago was partially triggered by the sell-off in Japanese bonds. The US appears to be providing implicit support to Japan (examining exchange rates for yen quotes and signaling potential market intervention) to prevent excessive yen depreciation.
Japan's government bond crisis and external interventions have emerged after Sanae Takamichi took office. Takamichi intends to call for early elections in an effort to consolidate personal power. The yield on Japan’s 40-year government bonds has surged past 4%, raising global concerns over fiscal risks. The Federal Reserve is suspected of intervening in the currency market to support the yen. Japan's fiscal expansion is exacerbating debt risks, and soaring government bond yields could impact global bonds, particularly affecting US Treasuries. For instance, the simultaneous decline in US stocks, bonds, and currency two Tuesdays ago was partially triggered by the sell-off in Japanese bonds. The US appears to be providing implicit support to Japan (examining exchange rates for yen quotes and signaling potential market intervention) to prevent excessive yen depreciation.
China Policy and Markets：
The People's Bank of China is injecting substantial liquidity through tools like MLF, strengthening expectations of monetary easing. Meanwhile, the CSRC is considering tightening standards for companies listing in Hong Kong. Policy measures are supporting market liquidity, but stricter regulations may dampen some financing enthusiasm. This development is seen as a stabilizing and slightly positive factor for Hong Kong stocks.
The People's Bank of China is injecting substantial liquidity through tools like MLF, strengthening expectations of monetary easing. Meanwhile, the CSRC is considering tightening standards for companies listing in Hong Kong. Policy measures are supporting market liquidity, but stricter regulations may dampen some financing enthusiasm. This development is seen as a stabilizing and slightly positive factor for Hong Kong stocks.
In terms of individual stocks:
Pingtouge (Alibaba's integrated endpoint-cloud chip, the Chinese version of TPU):Rumors suggest an upcoming independent IPO, which once caused Alibaba’s US stock to soar by 7%. This reflects China's trend toward full-stack AI self-research, drawing parallels with Google’s TPU development path. Globally, only Google and Alibaba possess full-stack self-research capabilities. Alibaba is currently following Google's trajectory—Google uses Gemini 3 to validate its TPU capabilities, while Alibaba leverages Tongyi Qianwen to test PPU computing power, channeling it into society via Alibaba Cloud. According to authoritative rankings, Queen 3 Max has become the world's most powerful open-source large model. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$
Pingtouge (Alibaba's integrated endpoint-cloud chip, the Chinese version of TPU):Rumors suggest an upcoming independent IPO, which once caused Alibaba’s US stock to soar by 7%. This reflects China's trend toward full-stack AI self-research, drawing parallels with Google’s TPU development path. Globally, only Google and Alibaba possess full-stack self-research capabilities. Alibaba is currently following Google's trajectory—Google uses Gemini 3 to validate its TPU capabilities, while Alibaba leverages Tongyi Qianwen to test PPU computing power, channeling it into society via Alibaba Cloud. According to authoritative rankings, Queen 3 Max has become the world's most powerful open-source large model. $Alibaba (BABA.US)$
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(Google will release its earnings report next week)
BYD in Mexico: Expanding its electric vehicle market share through low-interest loans and subsidies, remaining competitive despite tariff pressures. However, the anticipated bull market in raw material metals may exert pressure on Chinese automakers that rely on low-cost strategies to capture market share.
BYD in Mexico: Expanding its electric vehicle market share through low-interest loans and subsidies, remaining competitive despite tariff pressures. However, the anticipated bull market in raw material metals may exert pressure on Chinese automakers that rely on low-cost strategies to capture market share.
Bloomberg reports that China has requested tech giants like Alibaba to prepare for purchasing NVIDIA's H200 chips, albeit with allocation requirements:
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$
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Impact of rising chip prices on consumer electronics:
Memory chip prices are surging due to skyrocketing AI demand, potentially leading to higher prices and reduced sales volumes for consumer electronics such as smartphones and PCs. The supply-demand imbalance benefits suppliers like Samsung but poses challenges for downstream manufacturers (e.g., Xiaomi). $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ , Dell $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ ) are facing risks of margin pressure or declining demand.
Always be wary of a declining superpower. The United States was once Rome, but now it is Carthage:
Why is the global market so chaotic right now? British media commentary suggests that the relative decline of the United States has made its external behavior more anxious and aggressive, similar to the historical decline of the "Weimar Republic." Changes in the U.S.'s status may lead to long-term policy uncertainty, and the world needs to adapt to its transition from being the "sole superpower" to becoming "one of several poles."
Memory chip prices are surging due to skyrocketing AI demand, potentially leading to higher prices and reduced sales volumes for consumer electronics such as smartphones and PCs. The supply-demand imbalance benefits suppliers like Samsung but poses challenges for downstream manufacturers (e.g., Xiaomi). $XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ , Dell $Dell Technologies (DELL.US)$ ) are facing risks of margin pressure or declining demand.
Always be wary of a declining superpower. The United States was once Rome, but now it is Carthage:
Why is the global market so chaotic right now? British media commentary suggests that the relative decline of the United States has made its external behavior more anxious and aggressive, similar to the historical decline of the "Weimar Republic." Changes in the U.S.'s status may lead to long-term policy uncertainty, and the world needs to adapt to its transition from being the "sole superpower" to becoming "one of several poles."
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $ProShares UltraShort Gold (GLL.US)$ $DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG EXCH TRADED NOTES (DGP.US)$ $US Treasury Bond ETFs (LIST22866.US)$ $USD (USDindex.FX)$ $T-Rex 2x Inverse Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLZ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ ETF (TQQQ.US)$ $2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF (SPXU.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 ETF (SDOW.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$
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最和气 : In my personal opinion, holding government bonds is akin to owning a rental property. If a fire breaks out and the property stops generating rent, it's a loss.
Skill Issue 最和气 : That's a lame analogy. You don't seems to understand what is a government bond.
亏不起 : Thank you for sharing.
Sweri33 最和气 : Exchange rate risk, inflation risk