Musk vs. Trump Fallout: A Golden Opportunity for Rocket Lab & AST SpaceMobile to Challenge SpaceX?

74128907 :

M7R :

Spread Love N Joy : bromance gone bad.

steady Pom pipi :

ZHANG XIE JUN : hi

phongy45 : trump , more coming ....?

Dan’l : They’re pla!n s!lly to think $Rocket Lab (RKLB.US)$ or $AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$ could actually compete with Space X.
(Posting follow-ups, to explain.)

Dan’l Dan’l : Rocket Lab
Current Capabilities:
• Electron Rocket: Rocket Lab’s Electron is a small-lift, partially reusable rocket designed for launching small satellites, with a maximum payload capacity of 300 kg to low Earth orbit (LEO). It has successfully launched 63 times as of April 2025, demonstrating reliability for small payloads. However, it is far too small to carry astronauts or compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, which can lift 22,800 kg to LEO.
• Neutron Rocket: Rocket Lab is developing the Neutron, a medium-lift, reusable rocket expected to launch in mid-2025. Neutron is designed to carry 13,000–15,000 kg to LEO, making it a closer competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 in terms of payload capacity. It features a reusable first stage, with plans for landings on a floating platform, similar to SpaceX’s recovery methods.
• Astronaut Capability: Neutron is described as a “human-rated” launch vehicle, indicating potential for crewed missions. However, Rocket Lab has not yet developed a crew capsule or spacecraft like SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, and initial Neutron launches are not expected to be crewed. Developing a crewed spacecraft would require significant additional engineering, testing, and certification, which Rocket Lab has not publicly prioritized.
Competitive Potential:
• Payload Competition: Neutron’s 13–15 metric ton capacity to LEO positions it to compete with Falcon 9 for medium-lift missions, particularly for satellite constellations or cargo. It could challenge SpaceX’s cost structure (Falcon 9’s cost per kg is ~$3,000–$6,000, compared to Electron’s ~$25,000/kg) if Rocket Lab achieves economies of scale with Neutron.
• Astronaut Transport: Rocket Lab currently lacks the infrastructure (e.g., crew capsules, life support systems) to carry astronauts, and there’s no clear timeline for developing such capabilities. Social media sentiment on X suggests skepticism about Rocket Lab’s ability to match SpaceX for crewed missions in the near term, citing the lack of crewed mission infrastructure and SpaceX’s dominance in heavy-lift and astronaut transport.
• Market Niche: Rocket Lab differentiates itself with flexibility and precision for small-to-medium payloads, and its billion-dollar backlog for Electron and Neutron indicates strong demand. However, it is not positioned to challenge SpaceX’s dominance in heavy-lift (e.g., Starship’s 150–250 metric ton capacity) or crewed missions in the near future.
Challenges:
• Rocket Lab’s smaller scale and focus on smaller payloads limit its ability to compete directly with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Starship for large cargo or crewed missions.
• Developing a crewed spacecraft would require significant investment and NASA certification, a process SpaceX mastered over years with Crew Dragon.
• Social media discussions highlight that SpaceX’s Starship, with its ambitious cost target of $10 million per launch, could overshadow Neutron’s capabilities if it achieves rapid reusability.
Conclusion for Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket positions it to compete with SpaceX in the medium-lift market for payloads up to 15 metric tons, but it is not currently capable of carrying astronauts due to the lack of a crewed spacecraft. While Neutron is human-rated, significant additional development would be needed for crewed missions, and Rocket Lab’s focus remains on satellite launches and space systems. It can challenge SpaceX in specific niches but not in heavy-lift or astronaut transport in the near term.

Dan’l Dan’l : AST SpaceMobile
Current Capabilities:
• Focus on Satellites, Not Rockets: AST SpaceMobile is not a rocket manufacturer or launch provider; it is a satellite designer and operator building a space-based cellular broadband network to connect unmodified smartphones. It relies on other companies, primarily SpaceX, to launch its satellites (e.g., BlueWalker 3 and Block 1 BlueBird satellites launched on Falcon 9).
• Satellite Payloads: AST’s BlueBird satellites (1,500 kg each) are large for communications arrays but far smaller than the payloads SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or Starship can handle. The company plans a constellation of up to 243 satellites, with Block 2 BlueBirds featuring 2,400-square-foot arrays for enhanced connectivity.
• No Astronaut Capability: AST SpaceMobile has no plans or infrastructure for crewed missions, as its business model focuses on satellite-based telecommunications, not launch vehicles or human spaceflight.
Competitive Potential:
• Launch Capability: AST SpaceMobile does not produce rockets and thus cannot compete with SpaceX in launch services or astronaut transport. It is a customer of SpaceX, Blue Origin, and ISRO for launching its satellites, indicating reliance on these providers rather than competition in launch capabilities.
• Market Competition: AST SpaceMobile competes with SpaceX’s Starlink in the satellite-to-cellphone connectivity market, not in rocket production or crewed missions. Its BlueBird satellites aim to provide direct-to-device broadband, a niche where it has a technological edge over Starlink’s initial ground-terminal-focused service. Partnerships with AT&T and Verizon bolster its position, but SpaceX’s 7,001 Starlink satellites (including over 100 with direct-to-cell capability) give it a significant scale advantage.
• Payload Comparison: AST’s satellites are within the payload range of Rocket Lab’s Electron (for smaller prototypes) or Neutron (for larger BlueBirds), but SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Starship can handle much larger payloads. AST’s reliance on SpaceX for launches underscores its lack of independent launch capability.
Challenges:
• AST SpaceMobile’s business model does not involve rocket development, so it cannot compete with SpaceX in launch services or astronaut transport.
• Its competition with SpaceX is limited to the satellite broadband market, where Starlink’s larger constellation and SpaceX’s launch cost advantage (due to in-house rockets) pose significant challenges.
• Social media posts on X suggest AST’s stock volatility reflects investor enthusiasm for its direct-to-cell technology, but it faces risks from SpaceX’s scale and potential to undercut competitors.
Conclusion for AST SpaceMobile: AST SpaceMobile does not produce rockets and thus cannot compete with SpaceX in carrying astronauts or heavy payloads. Its focus is on satellite-based cellular connectivity, where it competes with SpaceX’s Starlink, not in launch services. It relies on SpaceX and other providers for satellite launches, making it a customer rather than a competitor in this domain.

Dan’l Dan’l : Comparison to SpaceX
• SpaceX’s Capabilities:
• Falcon 9: A reusable rocket with a 22,800 kg LEO capacity, certified for NASA crewed missions with the Crew Dragon spacecraft. It has launched 24 astronauts to the ISS since 2020.
• Starship: A fully reusable system with a 150–250 metric ton LEO capacity, designed for crew and cargo to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. It is still in development but aims for $10 million per launch, far below competitors.
• Launch Dominance: SpaceX conducted 87% of U.S. launches in 2023, with a cost per kg significantly lower than competitors.
• Rocket Lab vs. SpaceX: Rocket Lab’s Neutron could compete with Falcon 9 for medium-lift payloads but lacks crewed capability and cannot match Starship’s heavy-lift potential. Rocket Lab’s niche is flexibility and smaller-scale missions, not direct competition in crewed or Julius Caesar or heavy-lift markets.
• AST SpaceMobile vs. SpaceX: AST SpaceMobile does not compete in rocket production or crewed missions but in the satellite connectivity market, where Starlink’s scale and SpaceX’s launch cost advantage create a formidable barrier.